Managing the production potential of an enterprise in a crisis. Project management in crisis conditions. Diagnose crisis phenomena

IN this sectionLet us consider what anti-crisis measures should be applied by the management to bring the enterprise out of the crisis.

First, it is an adjustment to the existing strategy. In times of crisis, big ambitious goals should be abandoned. Although the conditions of the crisis can provoke the emergence of new goals, such as capturing the market of failed companies or the takeover of weaker companies that have little chance of survival. It must be remembered that the crisis creates additional conditions for development, if we take advantage of the emerging opportunities wisely. You should reconsider your attitude to the crisis based on the following positive factors:

crisis stimulates consolidation:

cheaper assets will lead to the fact that the weak will die, the strong will become even stronger,

consolidation will most likely occur in the retail of grocery and household goods, banks, pharmacies, etc.

managers receive management practice in a crisis;

there is a reassessment of the system of risks, which in the recent period were considered too formally. After a crisis, management becomes a more effective management tool;

the position of strong domestic players can be strengthened due to a possible decrease in competition from imports and additional export opportunities.

However, the listed factors are positive only for those managers who can competently dispose of them. This can become a new strategy for the company.

Secondly, it increases productivity. In times of crisis, speed is the decisive factor in maintaining a company's performance. In the period preceding the crisis, most of the company is in a "relaxed" state. They put the main emphasis on the resources used, and not on speed: a large staff of employees is hired, the salaries of key specialists are constantly growing, realizing their importance, key specialists require comfortable conditions (expensive personal cars), hospitality costs are invariably growing, construction or rent expensive offices. But a crisis comes and there is a rapid reassessment of values. Only those employees remain who can work effectively and participate in overcoming the crisis.

It is necessary to quickly and thoroughly analyze all factors of business productivity growth. Next, you need to exclude operations that do not add value to business processes. We are talking about technological and organizational processes. Speed \u200b\u200bincrease technological processesis a complex process, the more quality may suffer. As far as organizational processes are concerned, one should not think about cutting employees, reducing costs. On the contrary, additional costs must be incurred to increase productivity. In each case, it is necessary to find those ways to increase productivity that are acceptable for a particular business. And no one, except specialists working at the enterprise, can do it better.

The third is a change in attitude towards marketing. The fear of all marketing agencies amid the crisis is justified in the fact that all companies immediately begin to cut marketing budgets. In fact, companies, in a panic, begin to skimp on what they can do without. These are, first of all, the costs of training and product promotion to the market. Such measures are reasonable only at the initial stage of the crisis development. But, if this strategy continues in the future, the company may simply lose its competitive edge.

There are two alternatives to the attitude to marketing in the company (table 5).

Table 5

Alternatives to attitude to marketing in the company

Alternative	Characteristic
Alternative # 1	Marketing is the policy of consumers within the company, forcing the company to smoothly change in the direction desired by the majority of consumers. Companies address consumers in the market like this: "We will give you whatever you want if you become our loyal customers." "We are ready to spend a lot of money, if only you were our clients."
Alternative # 2	Marketing must be profitable. In other words, marketing should measure the costs of promoting products with the result that is obtained as a result of numerous marketing programs in terms of all understandable economic indicators, such as profit, cash flow, etc.

In a crisis, a shift will occur towards the second alternative. But it can be achieved in different ways. The owner and management of the company can take the first, radical path. Simply take and reduce the marketing staff of the company as much as possible, while simultaneously cutting the budgets of all marketing programs. And this will lead to economic benefits. The reduction in total costs caused by this reduction will lead to an increase in profits and cash flow.

The second path within the profitable marketing alternative involves deliberate behavior:

1) we soberly assess the situation,

2) looking for new opportunities.

First of all, you should analyze what types of products or services the company uses in great demand and focus the attention of marketers precisely on these promising products or activities. It is on this dedicated segment that all marketing costs must be focused.

The fourth is the management of economic factors. The main manifestation of the crisis that business is suffering from is the lack of money. Figure 5 presents a diagram explaining the causes and manifestations of the lack of money.

Figure: five

So, there are only three main reasons:

1) the company fails to sell a lot,

2) the company incurs high costs,

3) the company does not know how to manage working capital.

These reasons are manifested during the crisis because the management is not able to quickly readjust to work in the new conditions. Most often, all three of these reasons appear at the same time. As you can see in the figure, the indicators that signal the management of the problem that have arisen are profit and cash flow. Those. , in order to reduce the impact of the problem of lack of money, management needs to pay attention to profit and cash flow. Profit is a necessary but not sufficient condition for making money. To ensure the company's ability to generate money, it must make a profit. However, in a crisis it is necessary to generate money in any way, and this must be done quickly. During a crisis, sales drop. It is not possible to fix this quickly - the markets shrink. Partial compensation for the drop in sales can come from lower costs. However, it is not a fact that cost reductions will not lead to an even greater drop in sales, which, in turn, will eventually lead to even greater losses. This was mentioned in the analysis of marketing aspects.

During a crisis, a company needs time to restructure its activities in relation to crisis conditions: to shrink, cut some activities, optimize personnel. After such a restructuring, the company will learn to live in a new way and make a profit, most likely in smaller volumes, but adequate to shrinking markets. During this restructuring, the company cannot live without money. Therefore, money must be made or saved at any cost. So, of the two indicators of the scheme in Figure 4, the more important is the indicator of operating cash flow, rather than profit, at least at the initial stages of the crisis.

Fifth, a transformation of investment and financial activities is needed.

As for the investment activities of the company, although it is believed that in times of crisis it should be suspended, in fact it should be transformed. Firstly, it is necessary to analyze the investment decisions made before the crisis, and secondly, to analyze the possibilities of investing in new assets, based on the probable decrease in their prices.

The speed and quality of decisions still play an important role. It is not difficult to acquire companies that are getting cheaper due to the loss of their effectiveness. But the question remains, what to do with them later. There is an option to resell for a higher price, but it is not a fact that this operation will be completed successfully. Therefore, you need to buy following certain strategic goals.

As for the financial activity of the company, it takes place in the most stressful conditions during the crisis. All enterprises during the crisis are very limited in financial resources. However, having problems with money, the head of the company should not see the reason for this only in the crisis. A crisis, even an external one, actually reveals the company's hidden problems. There are three groups of reasons leading a company to a shortage of money. The first group includes market reasons, which can be both external and internal. This is, first of all, a drop in sales and shortcomings in assortment management. Indeed, sales volumes may fall due to an external cause, i.e. due to the contraction of markets, or may be the result of an imperfect marketing strategy of the company. Even if the markets shrink marketing strategy has to find a way to conserve volumes. Among the internal reasons for the shortage of money is the imperfection of the financial management system, which manifests itself in the absence of management accounting, weak financial planning, low qualifications of financial managers, suboptimal structure of financial management, and loss of control over costs.

The emerging external crisis should reveal all the internal causes, increasing the perfection of all aspects of the company's activities, in the conditions of objectively existing external causes.

What to do to reduce the shortage of money. First of all, one should not give in to panic and systematically present the directions in which it is necessary to act (Figure 6).

Fig. 6

Let us consider in more detail each of the groups of measures presented (Table 6).

Table 6

Groups of measures to reduce the shortage of money

Measure group	The most typical measures for this group
Short-term measures to increase the flow of money	sale or lease of non-current assets, rationalization of the product range, restructuring of receivables into financial instruments, attraction of credit sources of financing
Short-term measures to reduce money outflow	cost reduction, deferral of payments for obligations, use of supplier discounts, revision of the investment program, tax planning.
Long-term measures to increase the flow of money	additional issue of shares and bonds, company restructuring - liquidation or spin-off into separate business units, search for a strategic investor, search for a portfolio investor.
Long-term measures to reduce money outflow	long-term contracts providing for discounts or deferred payments, tax planning.

It is clear that not all of the listed measures are equally available in a crisis, this applies, for example, to the additional issue of shares or bonds. Nevertheless, a systematic search for financial opportunities should lead to success.

And the last, sixth, measure is the creation of a motivational system. For the effective implementation of all of the above measures, high motivation of the organization's personnel is required.

There are two ways to motivate:

1) reduce staff, motivating those who remain with the opportunity to continue working,

2) switch to performance-based payment, enabling people to earn money by achieving higher goals that appear as a result of the crisis.

The first method will be effective only if the management of the company properly "cleanses" its employees, leaving exactly those who will strive to work for the good of the company. In this sense, the second method is largely insured against errors. The company's personnel are far from homogeneous in terms of their management skills and ability to work in crisis conditions. Since no one has any experience of working in difficult conditions of a crisis, management skills should manifest (or appear) in the process of the crisis itself. This will not happen for everyone. Therefore, the task of the manager is to create conditions for the personnel that will allow employees to understand for themselves whether their abilities and skills correspond to the tasks set. This can be done by creating a motivational system that minimizes the constant part of the reward and fundamentally increases the variable part, which will be determined by the achieved result. In such conditions, incapable workers will leave on their own, since they will not be able to achieve their goals and earn decent money.

So, I am implementing all of the above anti-crisis measures, the head of the enterprise has many chances that the enterprise will get out of a difficult crisis situation.

Increasing the effectiveness of the use of crisis management at the enterprise

Whatever the reasons for the emerging crises in the organization, the actions of the management to take the enterprise out of a dangerous state must obey a certain logic.

Consider the six stages of management that need to be carried out during a crisis:

The first is to try to prevent a crisis. Here it is necessary to determine the factors that can negatively affect the organization of the enterprise. It is also necessary to determine the cost of the necessary preventive actions, for example, the creation of a crisis center or a special group.

Second, it is important to prepare yourself for crisis management. Action plans should be developed that take into account the possible risks and undesirable consequences of the crisis.

Third: analyze the situation. The most difficult thing here is the correct assessment of the crisis situation. Errors can arise due to incorrect identification of the factors that caused the crisis, or due to ignorance of external threats. In order for the information gathering activity to be most effective, it makes sense to involve a third-party specialist, although this will be very costly. But an incorrect analysis of the situation will lead to much greater financial losses.

Fourth: try to contain the crisis. At this stage, it is necessary to develop a clear sequence of actions to take the enterprise out of the crisis.

The next stage is the resolution of the crisis. The main thing here is to act without delay, clearly carrying out all planned anti-crisis measures.

And the final stage is overcoming the consequences of the crisis. It is necessary to take measures to compensate for losses incurred during the crisis and restore the lost ground.

Analyzing this chapter, we can conclude that for effective anti-crisis management, the head must carry out the above management stages, and each of these stages must be filled concrete actionstaking into account the specifics of the situation and the characteristics of the organization. Also, you should take into account the qualifications of key employees of the organization.

Vladimir Savchuk Chapter from the book "Strategy + Finance: Basic Knowledge for a Leader"
Publishing house "BINOM, Laboratory of Knowledge"

Much has already been written about the crisis, its causes, negative manifestations and ways to overcome it. Among the recommendations there are many that deserve attention and can be used in real practice. But it is very important to understand that the main condition for any successful work is consistency, which in a crisis becomes a critically necessary attribute of business management. Below is an attempt at a systematic presentation of all anti-crisis measures. The system is shown in Fig. 1, it has the shape of a fish, which is called the Issikawa diagram.

Figure: 1. System of anti-crisis measures

Let us give a brief description of each of the factors shown in the general diagram. Everything stated below is an attempt to systematically integrate an integral set of anti-crisis management measures. This does not mean that everything measures must be followed. After reading the contents of this paragraph, the leader himself must choose what suits him best and on what he should focus his efforts.

Strategy adjustment. As you know, the fish starts to spoil from the head. Therefore, we must start by adjusting the strategy. Leaving the company's mission unchanged, its vision should be revised, apparently giving up, for a while, from achieving large ambitious goals. Although the conditions of the crisis can provoke the emergence of new ambitious goals, for example, in terms of capturing the market of bankrupt companies or the takeover of weaker companies that have little chance of survival. It must be remembered that the crisis creates additional conditions for development, if we take advantage of the emerging opportunities wisely.

Reconsider your attitude to the crisis based on the following positive factors:

1. The crisis stimulates consolidation:

• cheaper assets will lead to the fact that the weak will die, the strong will become even stronger,
• consolidation will most likely occur in the retail of grocery and household goods, banks, pharmacies, etc.

Managers will receive management practice in a crisis.

There will be a reassessment of the system of risks, which in the recent period were considered too formally. After the crisis, risk management will become a more effective management tool.

4. Several "soap bubbles" will "blow away", in particular, stock, real estate, oil, metals ...

5. The position of strong domestic players can be strengthened due to a possible decrease in competition from imports and additional export opportunities.

The listed factors are named here rather conditionally. They will be positive for those who can dispose of them. And this may be the company's new strategy.

Productivity increase. In a crisis, the decisive factor in maintaining the company's performance is speed... It turns out that the well-known formula of the general theory of relativity works in business: E \u003d mc 2 , however, with some amendments. E Is the effectiveness (productivity) of the business, m Is the mass (volume) of the resource used, and c - the rate at which this resource is used. The point here is that the speed is taken squared, i.e. has an order of magnitude greater impact than the amount of resource used. In the period preceding the crisis, the majority of the company, to put it mildly, "relaxed somewhat." The main focus was on the mass m , and not at speed: a large back-office staff was hired, the salaries of key specialists were constantly growing, realizing their importance, key specialists demanded comfortable conditions (expensive personal cars), entertainment expenses invariably grew, expensive offices were built or rented. This list could be continued. It got to the point that young graduates of the capital's universities demanded a starting salary of $ 1000. At the same time, no one thought about speed.

The crisis came and put everything in its place. There was a rapid reassessment of values. The question was posed bluntly: “Gentlemen, highly paid managers, if you were not able to foresee the crisis and now you cannot overcome its consequences, then why do you receive high remuneration and why does business need you in general. Either turn on the high speed of your activity, or - goodbye, just goodbye, not goodbye. " Only those who can work effectively will remain. But working efficiently does not mean running fast around the office. It is necessary to quickly and thoroughly analyze all factors of business productivity growth, if possible, excluding all operations that do not bring value to business processes. This refers to both technological and operational processes. In most cases, it is difficult to increase the speed of technological processes, as quality may suffer. At the same time, most organizational processes have huge reserves of acceleration. And here it is not necessary to mindlessly cut staff, saving costs. On the contrary, additional costs must be incurred to increase productivity. At one well-known gas well workover enterprise, instead of one operator, at a certain stage of the technological cycle, they began to use two, i.e. increased costs. As a result, equipment downtime was reduced to zero and well workover rate increased. And speed, as Einstein's formula says, is squared. In combination with other similar techniques, the amount of work performed by one brigade during its shift has increased. Ultimately, it became possible to cut one out of five permanent brigades at all, without losing the total turnover. The company's profit increased sharply due to the decrease in fixed costs.

This recipe is not universal - it is useful when production has a large amount of fixed overhead. As the ancient sages said, the truth is always concrete. In each specific case, it is necessary to find those ways to increase productivity that are acceptable for a particular business. And no one, except specialists working at the enterprise, can do it better. True, certain tools can be recommended to these specialists.

One of these tools is the theory of constraints (TOC), proposed by E. Goldratt. Note that this is an integral system of technologies, which in its essence reproduces the model of the weakest link, well known in technology. Suppose we want to strengthen the chain (improve the system). What would be the most logical place to focus your efforts? At the weakest link! Is it worth strengthening something else that is not a limitation? Of course not. In the chain, its weakest link will still break, no matter how we strengthen the rest. In other words, the effort put into unrestriction will not bring immediate and noticeable improvements to the system.

Goldratt developed his approach to continuous improvement and called it Theory of Constraints (TOC). He even described it in his novels The Goal and It "s not Luck!", Which demonstrate the use of TOC technology. The technology is based on five sequential steps to help focus efforts on that will allow you to quickly transform the entire system.

Step 1. Find the system limitation. Which element of the system contains the weakest link? Is it physical or organizational in nature?

Step 2. Weaken the impact of the system limitation. In other words, to answer the question: "How to squeeze the maximum out of the limiting element without significant additional costs and thereby weaken the negative impact of the limitation on the operation of the entire system?"

Step 3. Concentrate all efforts on the system limiter. When the constraint is found (step 1) and it is decided what to do with it (step 2), we tune the entire system so that the constraint element works as efficiently as possible. We may need to slow down some parts of the system and speed up others. Then we will analyze the results of our actions: find out if this limitation is still delaying the operation of the entire system? If not, we got rid of it and proceed to step 5. If yes, then the restriction still exists and we proceed to step 4.

Step 4. Remove the restriction. If steps 2 and 3 are not enough to remove the restriction, then more drastic measures are needed. This stage may require some investment of time, effort, money and other resources, so we must be sure that there is no way to get rid of the limitation in the first three steps. Removing a restriction implies that we will take any measures to remove this restriction. As a result, the limiting element will necessarily be removed.

Step 5. Return to the first step, keeping in mind the inertia of thinking. If in stages 3 or 4 the restriction is removed, we must return to stage 1 and start the cycle again. Our task is to determine the next element holding back the work of the system.

The five guiding steps are directly related to three questions about change: 1) what to change, 2) what to change, 3) how to make the change. To understand what exactly to change, we look for a constraint (step 1). To find out what changes are needed, we decide how best to weaken the constraint. Submitting the entire system to our solution (steps 2 and 3). If this does not help, we increase the bandwidth of the weak link and completely remove the restriction (step 4). In steps 3 and 4, we also flesh out “how to make change”.

But, as before, "the truth is always concrete." No one can point out the limitation of the system of the best experts in the enterprise. So the challenge is to use the formal procedure above to find a way to increase productivity by focusing on the weakest link.

The current reality tree begins with the existing undesirable phenomena (UDEs) in the system and helps to get to a number of true causes or to one key problem that caused all undesirable phenomena. The key problem is usually the constraint that is "handled" by the above five-step procedure.

If the current situation, which is described using the current reality tree, does not suit the company's management, they resort to building the so-called future reality tree, which is built according to the same rules. This tool serves two purposes: firstly, it allows you to make sure that the action that the management team is going to take will actually lead to the desired results, and secondly, this diagram makes it possible to determine what negative consequences the action we intended to do. This allows you to logically “test” the effectiveness of the intended actions before spending time, effort, or resources on them. Thus, it will be possible to avoid the deterioration of the situation.

Finally, when the decision on the course of action is made, another tree appears, namely the transition tree, which helps to implement this decision. It identifies what can hinder the actions of the management team and how best to overcome these barriers. It also allows you to set the sequence of actions required to achieve a goal. This diagram half answers the question "How to bring about change?"

The effectiveness of the mentioned tools in their graphical clarity (in combination with the tree construction algorithm). Indeed, often the problem that the management team must solve is ambiguous. Then it is worth getting together and simulating using graphical diagrams: 1) what is happening and why we are not satisfied with it (for example, insufficient performance), 2) what should be, and 3) how to achieve it. The theory of constraints can be a convenient helper for this.

Changing attitudes towards marketing. The fears of all marketing agencies amid the crisis are justified in the fact that "now all companies will begin to cut their marketing budgets." And in fact, this is actually observed during the crisis: being in a panic, companies begin to reduce what they can temporarily do without. This is, first of all, the cost of training and product promotion to the market. Such measures seem to be justified only at some, perhaps, very early stage of the crisis development. If this strategy continues in the future, the company may simply lose its competitive edge. The staff will not be able to solve the tasks set by the management, and the market will gradually forget about these competitive advantages.

Basically, there are two alternatives to the attitude to marketing in the company.

Alternative 1... Marketing is the policy of consumers within the company, forcing the company to smoothly change in the direction desired by the majority of consumers. Companies reach out to consumers in the marketplace like this:

“We will give you whatever you want if you become our loyal customers.”

- "We are ready to spend a lot of money, if only you were our clients."

Alternative 2. Marketing must be profitable. In other words, marketing should measure the costs of promoting products with the result that is obtained as a result of numerous marketing programs in terms of all understandable economic indicators such as profit, cash flow, etc.

In a crisis, a shift will occur towards the second alternative. But it can be achieved in different ways. The owner and management of the company can take the first, radical path. Simply take and reduce the marketing staff of the company as much as possible, while simultaneously cutting the budgets of all marketing programs. The problem asks if this will have an economic effect. Undoubtedly yes! The reduction in total costs caused by such a reduction will lead to an increase in profits and cash flow: "Thanks to the marketing, he helped us save costs, and, as you know, the money saved is money in earnings."

The second path in the framework of the alternative to profitable marketing involves deliberate behavior: 1) soberly assess the situation, 2) look for new opportunities. What is the first thing worth evaluating? Most companies manufacture several types of products and offer them in different markets. One operating unit can serve several markets at once, with different perspectives. Different operating units may work in the same area of \u200b\u200bdemand. So how many lines of business does the company actually have? Why is it important. The well-known 80/20 rule works here: 80% of the results of any activity are provided by 20% of the efforts. In times of crisis, the company cannot afford to scatter resources for non-core (non-profit) activities. First of all, it is worth focusing the attention of marketers on promising products and activities, focusing all marketing costs on this segment.

There is one more focus of preference. The totality of all marketing activities is divided into two areas: let's call them short and long waves of value (effectiveness) of marketing programs. Short wave marketing involves a quick market response to the marketing costs incurred. The Long Wave should provide a lasting effect aimed primarily at strengthening brand strength. From the point of view of financial management and management accounting, money spent for the short wave is directly included in the costs of the period in which it is incurred. And the result should be an increase in operating profit, i.e. EBITDA. In the case of a "long wave", the costs incurred should by assumption be recouped over a longer period, perhaps a year or two. From the standpoint of financial management, cash flow will decrease significantly, but operating profit may increase. This will happen due to the fact that not all the money spent on marketing will be included in the costs of the period, but only some part. Growth in sales can offset this portion of the additional costs of the period so that profits can increase.

In a crisis, preference marketing activities should focus on the "short wave". And not only because there are not enough funds for this. In a crisis, the situation changes very often, and many manifestations of the crisis cannot be predicted. To a greater extent, this applies to long-term forecasts. It is clear that investing in long-term marketing programs seems questionable - money could be wasted ...

Management of economic factors. The main manifestation of the crisis that business is suffering from is the lack of money. In fig. 2 shows a diagram explaining the reasons and manifestation of the lack of money.

Figure: 2. Reasons and indicators explaining the lack of money

So, there are only three main reasons: 1) the company does not manage to sell a lot, 2) the company incurs high costs, 3) the company does not know how to manage working capital. These three reasons may not appear in standard, non-crisis, circumstances, but in crisis conditions they have arisen due to the unwillingness of management to reorganize to work in new conditions. The worst thing is when all three reasons appear at the same time, which is most often the case. As you can see from the diagram, the indicators that signal the management of the problem that have arisen are profit and cash flow. What should the management team focus on in the first place in order to at least reduce the impact of the problem of lack of money - on profit or on cash flow. Profit is a necessary but not sufficient condition for making money. In other words, to ensure the company's ability to generate money, it must make a profit. In standard, non-crisis conditions, this condition is considered unshakable. But in a crisis it is necessary to generate money in any way, and to do it quickly. What happens during a crisis? Sales are falling. This is the root cause. It is not possible to fix it quickly - the markets shrink. Partial compensation for the drop in sales can come from lower costs. This is what companies do best. But it is not a fact that cost reduction will not lead to more about a greater drop in sales, which will eventually lead to even more about more losses. We discussed this possibility when analyzing marketing aspects.

During a crisis, a company needs time to restructure its activities in relation to crisis conditions: to shrink, cut some activities, optimize personnel. After such a restructuring, the company will learn to live in a new way and make a profit, most likely in smaller volumes, but adequate to shrinking markets. During this restructuring, the company cannot live without money. Therefore, money must be made or saved at any cost. So, from the two indicators of the circuit in Fig. 2 more important is the indicator of operating cash flow, rather than profit, at least at the initial stages of the crisis.

And this is where the Total Money Management technology, or TCM, from the English term comes to the rescue. Total Cash Management. The essence of TCM is manifested in the practical implementation of the following two fundamental provisions:

1) all aspects of the enterprise's activities must involve the available or fundamentally available monetary resources,

2) every employee of the enterprise can influence the state of monetary resources by applying some simple rules every day.

In many real situations, managers of enterprises in the course of their activities do not realize the exceptional importance of money. They don't understand that money is an absolutely liquid asset. Having money, a company can solve absolutely all problems, technological, marketing, and all the rest. This is especially acute in a crisis. The pragmatic goal of TCM is to create a system that:

• on the one hand contributes to the efficient generation of cash flows,
• on the other hand, it contributes to their no less effective use, again with the aim of generating subsequent cash flows.

It is important to understand that TCM is not just “Save Money” slogans that have to be posted throughout the firm to be successful. This is far from the case: TCM is, first of all, a system that covers all the activities of a company. The figure shows the main blocks of TCM.

Figure: 3. The structure of the total money management system

The consistency of the TCM concept is manifested not only in the fact that each functional unit and even each person plays a role in the implementation of strategic objectives, but also in the fact that an additional effect can be created at the junction between units. In other words, improvements in one of the blocks shown in the figure can cause changes in other blocks so that the integral effect can be either greater or less than the sum of the two separate effects.

Our next task is to give a brief description of each individual block.

Money management in marketing. In a complex business system, marketing and sales services are rightfully considered the first among equals because they make money. Let's list the main tasks and problem areas of using TCM in marketing:

• discounts depending on the volume of sales of finished products;
• discounts depending on the terms of payment for the shipped products;
• inventory as a competitive marketing tool;
• provision of risky commodity loans;
• sales management over time to align production volumes;
• increasing sales with TCM;
• creating an adequate reaction from competitors.

Let us dwell on some provisions, considering most of them obvious.

First of all, we note that here and below the listed provisions are rather problematic areas, i.e. an indication of a set of issues that are implied for a solution, and not final technologies. In particular, speaking of discounts depending on the volume of sales and the terms of payment for shipped products, we emphasize that this issue should not be left to chance. Evaluation technology needs to be developed acceptable size discounts based on the criterion of the maximum total cash flow, try it out in the process practical activities and then make it an internal standard.

“The volume of stocks as a competitive property of marketing” is manifested in particular in the fact that the desire to fully satisfy the needs of customers, enterprises are invariably increasing the volume of stocks. At the same time, this "freezes" money, which can lead to their deficit and the impossibility of making another profitable purchase of goods, which is designed to replenish stocks. It is clear that it is necessary to find some optimum.

Let us consider another rather “delicate” problematic issue from the above list: “creating an adequate reaction of competitors for our company”. An adequate response here is understood as a competitor's panic in connection with the actions of a company that professes TCM. Let the main competitor not follow TCM. This means that he measures his performance using a monthly or quarterly earnings report. Our company begins to make a price discount in the market, while simultaneously reducing the period for granting deferred payment. It is clear that the turnover of money in this case increases, although the net (accrued) profit falls. The competitor is also forced to make price discounts. But since for him the criterion is the profit for the month, he is naturally in a panic, since the profit is falling. A competitor can do a lot of stupid things, for example, inadequately reduce costs due to the salaries of managers, and thus come into a state of crisis. Our company is calm, because it has not lost money and does not need to reduce the salaries of managers.

What can be used as a technology for assessing the effectiveness of a particular FCM technique? The answer is simple enough. The financial manager sits down at the table, turns on the computer, opens a program that simulates the budget for a month or quarter, and starts a "game" with numbers, building all kinds of scenarios. Moreover, these scenarios should pursue a specific goal. In the example just considered, the goal is to choose the ratio of the price discount and the grace period in such a way as to prevent a decrease in the cash flow for the analyzed period. And do not be afraid of a temporary decrease in net profit. This is less important in SCM. So, here, as well as in almost all similar situations, the main decision-making technology is the budgeting program, which allows you to assess the monetary consequences of any managerial step.

Inventory management to save money. Almost all managers complain about excess inventory and their sub-optimal composition. This is especially evident in a crisis.

Here is a list of the main problematic issues that the FCM system should solve in terms of reducing reserves:

• allowing the trade-off between inventory and customer service
• optimization of the purchase volume of a consignment of goods;
• implementation of an inventory control and accounting system that operates in real time and real value;
• continuous assessment of the real value of stock in the warehouse;
• getting rid of obsolete goods in warehouses by selling at large discounts or simply writing off;
• control of costs associated with inventory;
• optimization of the volume of spare parts for production equipment;
• optimization of the product range in terms of inventory reduction.

The point is that stocks in principle tend to grow. This is the law of business. But this growth can only be justified by an adequate growth in sales volumes so that inventory turnover does not decrease.

Collection of receivables. This kind of activity is a thankless job. In a crisis, the main reason for non-payments is that the client has little money - not enough to fulfill all obligations. Considering the overdue debt from a financial point of view, it should be emphasized that for the client it is a significant source of financial resources, especially in an environment of high interest rates. Therefore, the client will adhere to this rule by all means. The main task of TCM in terms of ensuring the collection of receivables is to thoroughly analyze all customers and find out the reasons for the late payment of the company's bills.

Let's list the main problematic issues of collection of receivables:

• systematization and analysis of information on all clients of the firm, including potential customers;
• establishment of a system of discounts in case of early payment of company bills;
• development of a system of legal measures to "intimidate" unscrupulous clients;
• filing applications to the arbitration court for declaring the client bankrupt;
• application of factoring in order to obtain a part of receivables outstanding on time;
• introduction of a system of responsibility of sales managers for late payment of company bills by their clients;
• refusal to serve money-weak clients.

An important of the factors listed above is the personal responsibility of managers for debt collection. This responsibility should be shared between account managers and sales managers. The former are responsible for the timely delivery of information that the payment has expired. The latter supervise the work and are directly involved in the collection of receivables.

Day to day money management. TCM is a permanent process. But the most permanent of all TCM blocks is the routine daily money management. This is the prerogative of the CFO, who instructs the accounting department to transfer money to the appropriate account of any counterparty. The importance of a balanced day-to-day management money is difficult to overestimate. Distortions in one (aggressive) or another (sluggish, inert) direction can cause negative consequences for the company as a whole.

Below are the main tasks and problematic issues that represent the content of day-to-day money management:

• operational budgeting of daily payments;
• daily reports on funds;
• rational settlement of accounts payable;
• payment of wages and other employee benefits;
• reimbursement of expenses (travel, entertainment, etc.);
• using the electronic transfer system;
• use of credit cards.

In the process of establishing day-to-day money management, it is important to observe two principles:

1) at the beginning of each day, it is necessary to know firmly who will have to pay and for what, and at the end of each day it is no less firm to know to whom and for what the money was actually paid;

2) try to avoid making transactions with cash.

The operational daily budget is not detailed and comprehensive. This is a cash-only budget, which collates all cash receipts and payments that are planned for the current day.

Speaking about the system of paying off accounts payable, it should be understood that the true art of financial management of accounts payable is to select the "right" lender and pay him, and pull the "wrong" lender for a while, or maybe not pay him at all ... Such activity from the point of view of TCM does not contradict its basic principles. It would be strange to expect that TCM would be based on biblical principles.

Now let's briefly discuss the second principle of day-to-day money management - avoid using cash whenever possible. It seems that this principle is obvious, if, of course, do not bear in mind the tasks that the enterprise sets itself, at least partially working "in the shadow". Many domestic enterprises, especially those from the category of large ones, are gradually switching over to the payment of wages using deposit cards. For reimbursement of entertainment and travel expenses, banks strongly recommend corporate deposit and credit cards. The use of a "card" settlement system allows you to significantly save time and efforts of employees in the process of day-to-day money management.

Choosing a bank and working with it. There are two complementary goals in working with a bank (or banks). The first goal is to provide ourselves with the necessary high-quality and qualified service. In this regard, the company must choose a bank for itself, the service of which would meet its requirements in terms of convenience. The second goal is the consistency of access to short-term loans. There is a well-known joke: banks are always ready to provide you with money, except for those cases when you really need it. In modern conditions of general distrust (the bank is to the client, and the client to the bank), it is rather difficult to expect to have a permanent source of credit to cover the short-term budget deficit. This is especially true in a crisis. The following problem areas can be considered in the system of working with banks within the TCM:

• establishing the criteria by which a bank is selected;
• constant monitoring of the state of the bank, in order to detect possible negative aspects of its activities, for example, a decrease in liquidity;
• reducing the cost of banking services;
• conducting periodic reconciliation of bank accounts;
• obtaining a credit line and maintaining it.

Despite the multifaceted relationship between the firm and the bank, the main purpose of the TSM system is to cover the temporary shortage of money, as well as to find a successful placement of temporarily free money.

Cost management and control. It is cost management, and not cost reduction, that is the essence of TCM. By their behavior, costs are divided into variable and fixed. The former change in proportion to the change in sales, the latter remain unchanged. In a crisis, everyone rushes to urgently reduce costs. We are talking about fixed costs that do not depend on the volume of production and sales. And this is justified, since in a crisis, when sales are falling, fixed costs are "dead weight" on the enterprise. Variable costs (cost of raw materials, technological energy, direct piecework) are automatically reduced when sales decrease.

Reducing fixed costs should be treated selectively. You should not mindlessly cut costs. Firing the cleaning ladies and switching to cheaper toilet paper for the office won't save the business. In a panic, business leaders typically make two mistakes:

Small but noticeable items of expenditure, for example, of an image character, are being cut, which immediately sends a negative signal to the market about the state of the company.

The thoughtless struggle with costs can harm the business itself, in particular, the dismissal of key employees can lead to a loss of product or service quality.

Converting some fixed costs into variables can serve as one of the cost reduction measures. Specifically, this can manifest itself in two cases. The first is related to the transfer of payment of remuneration to managers, mainly depending on the result obtained, as they say, a success fee. Instead of firing a manager, which objectively reduces costs, a small fixed fee is set for him, and the rest of his remuneration will depend on the result he gets. We will expand on this topic at the end of this section when we talk about megamotivation.

The second way to translate fixed costs into variables is to use outsourcing. This can be done in many areas of the company. Let's give just one example. Many domestic manufacturers and distributors of consumer goods have their own resources to promote their products. In standard times, this was considered a manifestation of the company's strength. In conditions of shrinking markets, this becomes unprofitable. So you can use the services of specialized marketing agencies. At the same time, it becomes costly for marketing agencies to have logistics departments in their structure, which provide them with the storage and distribution of goods in the system necessary for conducting promotions... Distribution companies with strong logistics capabilities could go to marketing agencies to actively outsource their logistics. As a result, the necessary functions will be performed on both sides, and the amount of the involved resource will decrease.

With the correct formulation of the question, it should be about profit management mechanisms, including by reducing costs, and not on reducing costs as an end in itself.

Investment and finance transformation... It is generally accepted that investment activity should decline during a crisis. Real practice proves this, judging by the numerous reports on the suspension or termination of the construction of new production facilities, the cancellation of previously made decisions on investment. The reduction in investment activity occurs due to the fact that 1) there is simply not enough funds, 2) the prospects for new investment projects are unclear.

At the same time, the crisis provides an opportunity to increase the company's assets and expand the scope of its activities by absorbing other weaker enterprises. There is no doubt that during the crisis there is a redistribution of property - the strong absorb the weak.

So, the transformation of investment activity should be considered from two positions:

1) developing an attitude towards investment decisions made before the start of the crisis,

2) analysis of the possibilities of increasing investment activity by acquiring new assets, using the likely decrease in their prices.

In a crisis, it is necessary to revise the procedures and technologies used for the investment activity itself. Here are the typical properties of the investment activities of domestic companies:

1. An important business task of investment development is solved through outsourcing (entrusted to a consulting company).
2. Closed software products are used that do not give a transparent view of the business for the owner and management.
3. The main focus is on forecasting cash flows and calculating standard indicators (NPV, IRR, DPB) without deep insight into the practical economics of the project. At the same time, the choice of the discount rate does not correspond to the specifics of project financing.
4. The investment analysis lasts for 2-4 months and ends with a rather cumbersome description containing many unnecessary details.
5. It is often not possible to trace a direct connection between the business idea and / or technological improvement and the economics of the project.

In a crisis, this will not work. The main task of investment planning in a crisis environment is as follows :

We do it for ourselves, quickly and without mistakes.

So, still the speed and quality of decisions made . Agree that there is nothing simpler than making a decision to buy companies that quickly lose their effectiveness, as a result of which their owners are ready to sell them cheaply. And then what? Resell to someone for a higher price. This is what the so-called portfolio investors usually do. It is not a fact that this speculative operation will be successful. This means that you need to buy in line with strategic goals. During a crisis, the takeover of weak companies will be carried out primarily by a strategic investor. The latter, by definition, will strive to develop the purchased object in order to earn even more money on it.

The strategic investor has two problems. First, you need to act quickly, otherwise another strategic investor will outstrip. Secondly, you cannot make a wrong decision, otherwise the money spent will not be returned. To minimize the risks of these two errors, the investment technologies used must meet the following requirements:

1. Technology should allow doing quick and correct conclusions about the feasibility of investments.
2. Technology must be flexible , i.e. able to make multiple recalculations depending on the changed conditions.
3. Technology must be individual , i.e. reflect the specifics of the existing business and special requests of owners and top management.
4. Technology must be open and transparent : the occurrence of each indicator should be traced ( the widely used Project Expert does not meet this requirement).
5. Technology must be as clear as possible for a potential potential investor : it is enough to show justify marketing forecasts and show financial tables, and the investor is ready to make a decision.

If a company owns such technology, it is able to avoid these mistakes. Otherwise, enterprises with negative economic results will be bought and resold.

What about the already launched investment projects? In principle, three outcomes are possible: 1) stop, 2) suspend, 3) continue. In each outcome, all possible consequences should be calculated. The first decision is the most painful for the business and the owner. In fact, the money spent has every chance of not returning, but if you continue an unpromising project, then some more money will be wasted, i.e. losses will increase. Of the two evils, the lesser is usually chosen. The second outcome essentially postpones the moment of making a decision, the owner temporarily calms down and is satisfied with the fact that some part of the investment money will be spent in the near (or distant) future, and now it is possible to save on this by providing current liquidity. Finally, the third decision is the most daring and, perhaps, desperate. Despite everything, the company continues its investment project. Such a decision should be made outside the emotional plane. It is necessary to thoroughly calculate the changed market prospects and analyze the risks of an investment project in the changed conditions.

Financial activities companies in a crisis occurs in the most stressful conditions. Essentially, all enterprises are switching to a financial hunger ration. This primarily applies to credit sources of financing. At the initial stages of the crisis, the banking system decides to limit or completely exclude lending. Banks, as you know, have two sources of income: 1) through active lending operations and 2) trading and commission income, which is obtained as a result of interbank sales / purchases of financial resources and numerous commissions for the services they provide to their clients. So, the banks decide: no new loans and the continuation of old loans, we will focus on trading and commission income, with the help of which we will cover our decreased operating costs (banks also reduce their fixed costs). In other words, banks completely abandon profits in an attempt to maintain their liquidity.

This situation cannot last long - giving up on profits means essentially giving up on business. After a partial recovery of the financial system, banks will resume lending. The problem asks which enterprises will be able to become their clients for lending in the first place? Now many are thinking about those industries that will be less affected during the crisis. It turns out that there are, in fact, no such industries. Banks will become more selective in finding clients for loans. As selection criteria, banks will take into account not the client's solidity (the crisis has shown that solid clients go bankrupt in the first place) and not collateral (it will be impossible to sell the property of the bankrupt borrower), but the company's ability to withstand the crisis. With regard to the content of this paragraph, the ability of an enterprise to obtain a loan will be determined by its ability to implement the program presented in Fig. 1. Credit expertise of banks will become more focused on analyzing the real economy of borrowing enterprises, rather than formal financial indicators. In other words, the prospects for the financial activity of companies in a crisis will be determined by their ability to withstand the devastating consequences of the crisis.

Having money problems, the head of the company should not write off all of them on the crisis. A crisis, even an external one, actually reveals the company's hidden problems. There are three groups of reasons leading a company to a shortage of money. The first group includes market reasons, which can be both external and internal. This is, first of all, a drop in sales and shortcomings in assortment management. Indeed, sales volumes may fall due to an external cause, i.e. due to the contraction of markets, or may be the result of an imperfect marketing strategy of the company. Even if the markets are shrinking, the marketing strategy must find a way to maintain volume. Among the internal reasons for the shortage of money is the imperfection of the financial management system, which manifests itself in

Lack of management accounting,

Weak financial planning

Low qualifications of financial managers,

Suboptimal structure of financial management,

Loss of control over costs.

External reasons for the shortage of money include:

• non-payment crisis,
• competition from other manufacturers,
• rise in energy prices,
• export losses due to undervalued exchange rates,
• losses from imports due to overvalued exchange rates,
• pressure from tax legislation,
• high cost of borrowed funds,
• inflation pressure.

The emerging external crisis should reveal all the internal causes, increasing the perfection of all aspects of the company's activities, in the conditions of objectively existing external causes.

What to do to reduce the shortage of money. First of all, one should not give in to panic and systematically present the directions in which it is necessary to act. The system of measures shown in Fig. 4 looks quite simple.

Fig. 4. System of measures to reduce the deficit of money

Having built a kind of Procrustean bed of the system, it is necessary to think in detail about the possible ways. These measures will differ from company to company. Below is a list of the most typical measures for each of the groups.

1. Short-term measures to increase the flow of money:

Sale or lease of non-current assets,

Rationalization of the product range,

Restructuring of receivables into financial instruments,

Using a partial prepayment,

Development of a system of discounts for buyers,

Attraction of credit sources of short-term financing.

2. Short-term measures to reduce money outflow:

Reducing costs,

Deferral of payments for obligations,

Using supplier discounts,

Revision of the investment program,

Tax planning,

Bill settlements and offsetting.

3. Long-term measures to increase the flow of money:

Additional issue of shares and bonds,

Company restructuring - liquidation or spin-off into separate business units,

Search for a strategic investor,

Search for a portfolio investor.

4. Long-term measures to reduce money outflow:

Long-term contracts with discounts or deferred payments

Tax planning.

It is clear that not all of the listed measures are equally available in a crisis, this applies, for example, to the additional issue of shares or bonds. Nevertheless, a systematic search for financial opportunities should lead to success.

Mega-motivation system. This aspect of the overall program of transformation of the company's activities in a crisis is shown in the diagram in Fig. 1 in the form of a fish tail. As you know, with the help of its tail, the fish increases the speed of its movement. This is exactly the meaning of the mega-motivation system. All of the above factors of restructuring the company's activities should start working very quickly, as many managers like to say: "I have to do this yesterday." How to make it all start working as early as possible? The basic answer is simple: it is necessary to put the company's personnel in conditions when they themselves will be interested or forced to do it. I recall a fragment of the film "Peculiarities of the National Hunt", when a cow was transported in the bomb bay of an aircraft. She could not be thrown out of the bomb bay. Then the commander expressed himself very figuratively: "if you want to live, you will not be so hot.

This is the fundamental meaning of the term mega-motivation. Megomatization can be implemented in two polar ways:

1) reduce N% of staff, motivating those who remain with the opportunity to continue working,

2) switch to performance-based payment, enabling people to earn money by achieving higher goals that appear as a result of the crisis.

The first method is trivial, but it can be effective. The end effect of this method will be determined by how well the manager will properly "cleanse" the ranks of his staff. If the remaining staff is able to "swing up" in order for everyone to survive, then the effect is guaranteed. If they start flying out of the bomb bay, it means that they "cleaned" the wrong ones.

In this sense, the second method is largely insured against errors. The company's personnel are far from homogeneous in terms of their management skills and ability to work in crisis conditions. Since no one has experience of working in difficult conditions of a crisis, then management skills should appear (or appear) in the process of the crisis itself. This will not happen for everyone. But the owner or manager must create conditions for staff that will allow employees to understand for themselves whether their abilities and skills are adequate for the tasks. This can be done by creating a motivation system that minimizes the constant part of the reward and fundamentally increases the variable part, which will be determined by the achieved result. In such conditions, incapable workers will leave on their own, since they will not be able to achieve their goals and earn decent money. This approach can be formalized using KPIs, which quantitatively describe the task assigned to the employee. The technology for determining the variable part is described using Fig. 5.

Figure: 5. Technology for assessing the variable part of remuneration

As follows from the diagram of the figure, if an employee reaches the planned KPI value, he receives the planned remuneration. The amount of remuneration decreases proportionally with a decrease in the actually achieved KPI and becomes zero if the achieved KPI becomes less than a certain minimum value (the min point in the figure). If the actually achieved KPI becomes higher than the planned value, then the premium increases, but not infinitely, but up to a certain number (max point in the figure). The last feature of this algorithm insures the manager from understating the planned KPI value. During a crisis, the whole picture shifts to the right, setting higher goals for the employee and allowing him to earn more. If, in such a situation, the permanent part of the earnings is made very small, for example, at the level of the country's subsistence minimum, the employee will be forced to do everything possible and impossible to survive. And it again resembles a cow in a bomb bay.

The listed approaches are a motivational technology for individual managers, a kind of bonus tool. If the owner and manager thinks strategically, he must understand that this tool alone is not enough. He must analyze not only the current problems and how the company will live after the crisis. A strategically thinking leader must understand that he alone is not able to bring the company out of the crisis. Having or building a team is critical to working in a crisis. Only a strong team is able not only to withstand the crisis, but also to gain new advantages. You need to analyze who is on your team. What features and personal traits are characteristic of team members, and what tasks they solve. In fig. 6 an attempt is made to classify motivational states.

Figure: 6. Classification of motivational states

You can recommend each leader to analyze the state of his key players and draw appropriate conclusions. First of all, unnecessary tasks should be eliminated, and thus, sleeping and free artists should leave the team. "Hard labor" and "Drive" are categories that are fundamentally necessary for a company. You can offer the free artist to go to the "Drive" category, and the sleeping one - to the "hard labor" category. And here the above motivational system can help. But, as the Russian proverb says, "no matter how much you feed the wolf, he still looks into the forest." A freelance artist is always inclined to find an interesting and equally unnecessary task for the company. A KPI system designed for such an employee should not allow him to return to his favorite category.

The rest of the team must form common motivational principles. For this, the following procedure may be recommended.

Step 1. Identify the main goals of the company as a whole, such as power and influence, growth through acquisitions, high revenues.

Step 2. State the motives of the company as a whole and make them public (this will help you attract the right team members), such as market dominance, ambitious financial goals, excellence in key processes.

Step 3. Develop an adequate incentive system for the team to implement the motives. The system of material incentives should be built on KPIs. But don't just limit yourself to material incentives. The number of intangible incentives can include: career growth, personal growth, status (formal and real), participation in important affairs, power authority (regardless of status).

In conclusion, we note that the team and, once again, the team is the key to success in overcoming any crisis, no matter how destructive it may be for the country's economy as a whole.

1. Count money, not profit:

In a slowing economy, the valuation and management of enterprise cash flow takes on particular importance. The focus should be on Cash, not on the bottom line.

2. Try to increase the company's productivity:

Analyze the possibility of accelerating technological processes.

Minimize any activities that do not add value to the process.

Find the critical bottlenecks in your process and try to eliminate them.

3. Be ruthless in spending control:

Reduce costs to a minimum and hold executives accountable for any spending.

Hide your emotions and focus on reducing your main expense: staff. But explain your decisions to employees and motivate those who stay after layoffs.

Don't automatically cut marketing costs: it's easy to do, but it will be hard for you to regain your market share when the market stabilizes.

Remember that there are many competitors around, and cutting costs shouldn't be about diminishing your brand's presence in the market.

4. Evaluate customers and suppliers:

Study any financial customer information. Check the information even if the counterparty looks “financially healthy”.

Each time you sign a new contract, ask yourself the question: what will happen to my business if tomorrow the counterparty declares itself bankrupt?

5. Review the plan for investment in fixed assets:

Investing in new assets can rob you of funds at the most inopportune moment.

If the investment is not critical for the business mission, postpone it.

6. Make friends with banks

Treat your bank as a strategic partner.

Give him the most complete information about your affairs and the state of the business: banks make money on what they lend, so it is important for them to see that you are prosperous and your business is stable in order to give you a loan.

7. Consider alternative financing options

In the current situation, you need to clearly understand the plan of action in case of problems with you or your bank.

You need to look for sources that go beyond bank financing:

• conclusion of contracts with suppliers with deferred payment,
• use of toling (a return to the time of tolling schemes is not excluded),
• factoring schemes.

8. Watch out for companies that have problems and may be of strategic interest to you:

Many companies on the verge of bankruptcy will look for a strategic investor.

But don't make acquisitions just because you can do it.

You should be especially worried about proposals in which business owners are looking for an early disposal of their brainchild, instead of developing a strategy to get out of this situation.

9. Protect Your Personal Wealth

You may not really like the idea of \u200b\u200bletting a few more owners into your business, but bringing them in will allow the business to survive.

However, if you do choose the borrowing route, make sure that your personal guarantees do not undermine your personal wealth outside the business. Losing a roof over your head is much worse than losing your business.

10. Think Worst Scenarios

Don't panic. You are not alone - the crisis has affected all industries and almost all companies.

What needs to be done is to carefully consider the options for the development of the situation.

• Does it make sense to sell part of the business?
• What will the attraction of additional financing give?

Just do not wait for the moment when your company will be without money.

In conclusion, it is worth making one more recommendation, which is of an organizational nature. It is necessary to create a working group (it can include both outside specialists and company employees), which is endowed with special powers. The group should collect the necessary information about the state of the company and develop an anti-crisis action plan. The plan must be discussed in detail among the owners of the enterprise, top managers, the working group and specialists competent in this matter. Depending on the causes and depth of the crisis, the plan may include various measures, up to liquidation or sale of the business. However, this most drastic measure should be recommended as a last resort. The first challenge for the team leader is to find ways to use the crisis to improve efficiency.

Relevance of the research topic. Reforming the Russian economy during the transition to market relations has put forward the task of forming anti-crisis management. The importance of its use is due to the crisis state of production in all sectors of the national economy: about half of industrial enterprises in the country are insolvent, do not have working capital to provide production process, and fixed assets are obsolete and worn out by more than 75%. Their reconstruction requires huge capital expenditures and investments. State regulation of market transformations in conditions of a deep crisis should take a leading place in the anti-crisis management of commercial firms. Improving the theory and practice of anti-crisis management will lead to a certain strategy, the initiative of the heads of enterprises, the introduction of the institution of bankruptcy and the activities of arbitration managers, increased control over the enforcement of the law and an increase in the efficiency of the country's economic development, timely assessment of the crisis state, identification of risks and increased efficiency of business activities.

Reforming the insolvency of enterprises in a competitive environment is a complex process of developing and implementing a set of economic, legal and technological measures, new management methods, reforming insolvent enterprises, and conducting anti-crisis procedures dictated by the market. This largely depends on the creation of economic and legal conditions, intelligence, knowledge and skills of the anti-crisis manager, the development of non-standard methods and techniques for improving management, financial recovery in emergency economic conditions.

Research objectives:

- consider the features of enterprise management in a crisis;

- to investigate the essence of anti-crisis management and the specifics of choosing a firm's strategy in modern conditions;

- to consider the mechanism of business planning in the context of crisis management.

The theoretical basis of the research is the works of such authors as M.M. Alekseeva, G. Birman, N.P. Gribalev, A. Zel, E.P. Zharkovskaya, G.K. Tal, E.S. Minaeva. and etc.

1.1. The emergence of crises in the organization

Organization is some relatively isolated structural link in the overall economic system... The criteria for such separation are economic independence, organizational integrity (the existence of an internal and external environment), the presence of specialized information structures, the possibility of separating the overall result of work for the organization.

An organization can be considered a separate firm, enterprise, joint-stock company, bank, company (insurance, travel, etc.), as well as structural units of the public administration system.

The following questions are very important in solving management problems: in what periods of development of an organization a crisis can arise in it and develop; to what extent the danger of a crisis is determined by a risky change in the organization itself and how this may be related to the development of the economic environment in which the organization in question operates.

Practice shows that crises reflect their own rhythms of development of each a separate organizationwhich sometimes do not coincide with the rhythms of social development or the development of other organizations. Each organization has its own development potential and conditions for its implementation, while it obeys the laws of cyclical development of the entire socio-economic system. Therefore, the organization is constantly influenced by both external factors, determined by the impact of general cycles of the economy, and internal ones, depending on their own cycles and crisis development. 1

External factors characterize the economic environment in which the organization operates and on which it cannot but depend. If the economy is in a state of systemic crisis, this affects the functioning of an individual organization, and for each in a different way. It all depends on the type of property of the organization, the type of its activities and on the economic and professional potential. It should be borne in mind that each organization reacts differently to the ratio of internal and external factors affecting its state. So, when a systemic crisis occurs, a number of organizations are instantly destroyed, others with all their might resist crisis phenomena, others find various opportunities to use the influence of external factors for their own benefit, maybe temporarily, in the chaos of general crisis phenomena. 1

This can be explained by many reasons, among which there is an anti-crisis potential, professional management, increased economic activity, but at the same time one cannot discount the coincidence of circumstances and successful risky decisions.

However, a situation is also possible in which, even with a very favorable external economic environment, the organization enters a deep crisis. In this case, the reasons, most likely, can be internal factors of development - such as aging technology, ineffective organization of work, miscalculations in economic strategy, mistakes in making economic decisions, business and socio-psychological conflicts, low professionalism of personnel, unsuccessful marketing and many others. 2

To be able to launch crisis management programs in a timely manner, it is necessary to distinguish between the factors, symptoms and causes of the crisis.

Symptoms are manifested in indicators and, which is very important, in their trends, reflecting the functioning and development of the organization. So, the analysis of indicators of labor productivity, efficiency, capital productivity, power-to-weight ratio of production, financial condition, or such as staff turnover, discipline, job satisfaction, conflict, etc., can characterize the position of a production organization relative to the onset of a crisis.

In this case, the magnitude and dynamics of indicators can be assessed both in relation to the established recommended value (tolerances of changes), and in relation to their values \u200b\u200bin successive intervals.

A symptom of a crisis development can be, for example, a discrepancy between indicators and regular ratios, or a sharp decrease in indicators at certain time intervals. However, symptoms of deterioration in the organization's state do not always lead to its crisis. A symptom is only an external manifestation of the onset of the organization's "illness", but the causes of its occurrence lead to the "illness" itself - a crisis. It is the reasons that underlie the onset of symptoms, and then the factors that indicate the onset of a crisis.

Thus, the stages of the emergence of a crisis can be represented by the following chain: causes -\u003e symptoms -\u003e factors.

Crises should be assessed not only by their symptoms, but also by reasons and real factors.

The cause of the crisis is the events or phenomena due to which symptoms appear and then the factors of the crisis.

Crisis factor is an event or a fixed state of an object, or an established trend, indicating the onset of a crisis.

For example, in an organization, the reasons may be financial and economic miscalculations, the general state of the economy, low qualifications of personnel, shortcomings of the motivation system. Symptoms of the crisis are the appearance of the first signs of negative trends, the stability of these trends, business conflicts, an increase in financial problems, and others, and then the factors of the crisis will be a decrease in product quality, violation of technological discipline, growth and large debt on loans, etc. 1

In terms of the impact on the organization, the causes of the crisis in it can be classified into external and internal. External factors determine the impact of the environment in which the organization exists, and the emergence of internal causes depends on the situation in the organization itself. External reasons are determined by the state of the economy, the activities of the state, the state of the industry to which the organization in question belongs, as well as the impact of the elements.

The problem of crises in an organization should be approached from a systemic standpoint. Any organization is an integral system, it consists of interrelated elements, parts, components, etc. Moreover, the development of an organization, even with its quantitative growth, does not change the general characteristics of its integrity, unless, of course, its destruction occurs.

The system in the course of its life can be either in a stable or in an unstable state.

Distinguish between static and dynamic stability. Factors affecting the stability of the system can be external and internal. If sustainability is mainly dictated by external factors, then it is customary to call it external, if internal factors, then internal.

Under the conditions of centralized management of the economy, the stability of production and economic structures was achieved, as a rule, due to the influence of external control decisions, that is, any or almost any destabilization processes were extinguished from the outside. Moreover, the mechanisms for bringing the system to a stable or quasi-stable state could be very different: this is additional economic support, and replacement of the director, and adjustment of plans, and administrative reorganization of production, etc. In this case, the stability of the organization's activities was achieved by management from outside, and the crisis did not come ... 1

This does not mean that the problem of sustainability did not exist. She just moved to industry, regional and state levels and was always decided from above.

All previously carried out reforms concerned primarily higher levels, i.e. state (regional) and sectoral ones. It is enough to cite the facts of the organization of economic councils, the consolidation (unbundling) of ministries, the introduction of general management schemes. In today's competitive environment, the problem of organizational sustainability is faced by every organization.

So, in order to recognize a crisis, it is necessary to detect the symptoms in a timely manner, identify the factors that indicate the possibility of a crisis, and identify its causes. The means of detecting the possibility of a crisis situation in the organization are intuition and experience, analysis and diagnosis of the state. They should be applied at all stages of the organization's existence, for a situation is possible in which it can enter a deep crisis at the peak of its development or under a very favorable external economic environment. 1

1.2. Principles of anti-crisis financial management of an organization

From the standpoint of financial management, the possible onset of bankruptcy is a crisis state of the enterprise, in which it is unable to finance its economic activities.

The anti-crisis financial management system is based on certain principles that should be considered in detail.

Constant readiness for possible disruption of the financial balance of the organization. The financial equilibrium of an organization is highly variable over time. Its change at any stage of the economic development of an enterprise is determined by the reaction to changes in the external and internal conditions of its economic activity. A number of these conditions enhance the competitive position and market value of the organization. Others, on the contrary, cause crisis phenomena in its financial development. The objectivity of the manifestation of these conditions in dynamics determines the need for constant readiness of financial managers to a possible violation of the financial balance of the organization at any stage of its economic development.

Early diagnosis of crisis phenomena in the financial activities of the organization in order to timely use the possibilities of their neutralization.

Differentiation of indicators of crisis phenomena according to the degree of their danger for the financial development of an enterprise. Financial management uses an arsenal of indicators of its crisis development in the process of diagnosing an organization's bankruptcy. These indicators record various aspects of the organization's financial activities, the nature of which is ambiguous from the standpoint of generating the threat of bankruptcy.In this regard, in the process of anti-crisis management of an organization, it is necessary, when developing measures to restore financial balance, to take into account the indicators of crisis phenomena according to their degree of danger for the financial development of the organization.

The urgency of responding to individual crisis phenomena in the financial development of the organization. Each emerging crisis phenomenon not only tends to expand with each new business cycle of the organization, but also generates new accompanying crisis financial phenomena. Therefore, the earlier the anti-crisis mechanisms are included for each diagnosed crisis phenomenon, the more opportunities the organization will have to restore the disturbed financial balance. Management at this stage can be aimed at the implementation of three fundamental goals, adequate to the scale of the crisis state of the organization 1:

- elimination of the organization's insolvency;

- restoration of the financial stability of the organization (ensuring its financial balance in the short term);

- changing the financial strategy in order to ensure sustainable economic growth of the organization (achieving its financial balance in the long term), self-financing.

Adequacy of the organization's response to the degree of real threat to its financial equilibrium. The system of mechanisms used to neutralize the threat of bankruptcy is overwhelmingly associated with financial costs or losses caused by a reduction in the volume of operating production activities, suspension of the implementation of investment projects, etc. The "inclusion" of certain mechanisms to neutralize the threat of bankruptcy should proceed from the real level of this threat and be adequate to this level. Otherwise, either the expected effect will not be achieved (if the action of the mechanisms is insufficient), or the organization will incur unreasonably high costs (if the action of the mechanism is excessive for a given level of threat of bankruptcy).

Full implementation of internal opportunities for the organization to exit from a financial crisis. In the fight against the threat of bankruptcy, especially in the early stages of its diagnosis, the organization must rely solely on internal financial capabilities. Experience shows that with normal marketing positions of the organization, the threat of bankruptcy can be completely neutralized by the internal mechanisms of anti-crisis financial management and within the financial capabilities of the organization. Only in this case can the organization avoid reorganization procedures, which are painful for it.

Selection of effective forms of organization reorganization. If the scale of the financial crisis of the enterprise does not allow to get out of it through the use of internal mechanisms and financial reserves, the organization is forced to resort to external assistance, which usually takes the form of its reorganization. Reorganization of the organization can be carried out both before and during the proceedings of the bankruptcy case.

In the general case, the policy of anti-crisis financial management consists in developing a system of methods for preliminary diagnostics of the threat of bankruptcy and "switching on" the mechanisms of financial recovery of the organization, ensuring its exit from the crisis state.

1.3. The essence of crisis management and the choice of a firm's strategy in modern conditions

The axiom of entrepreneurial activity - for each project of an enterprise a serious business plan must be developed, taking into account the prospects for the development of the firm's firms and the requirements of the market. It should be in the order of normal market activities with a combination of strategic and tactical elements of financial support for entrepreneurship, cash flow management and finding optimal solutions to costs and income and ensuring profit. The essence of the anti-crisis management of the enterprise consists in the ability of management to analyze and regulate the planning mechanism and profit distribution. The main problematic issue in a crisis situation of an enterprise is financing. 1

In the conditions of deepening crisis phenomena, anti-crisis management of an enterprise takes a leading place in the system of state regulation of market relations at the federal, regional and local levels.

Overcoming the crisis and increasing production efficiency is possible by identifying the real owner of the assets of the enterprise, reforming insolvent enterprises and is a complex process of developing and implementing a set of measures of an economic, legal, organizational and technical nature. Application of New management methods and anti-crisis procedures is mandatory, as it is dictated by modern conditions.

Economic measures are most effective, as they allow you to prevent insolvency and bankruptcy with a timely analysis of the state of the enterprise and, in the future, see the deepening economic crisis at a successfully operating enterprise. And this is possible thanks to the use of an internal control system external audit, state financial control and over the expenditure of funds, distribution of profits, deviations from the indicators of the business plan, regulatory data, long-term planning and forecasting in the international market for capital, goods, raw materials and services.

A crisis phenomenon can be caused by mistakes and mismanagement. Moreover, the crisis is strongly associated with risk. Excluding him from the management decision will be an unexpected onset of the crisis, will create crisis situations.

Crises arise both in the course of the functioning of the enterprise and in the management of the development of the organization. They threaten the viability. The reasons for the development of the crisis can be different: objective, subjective, natural, associated with the level of scientific knowledge, imperfect management, conflicting interests and market needs.

Therefore, depending on the cause of the crisis and anti-crisis management, the consequences of the crisis can lead to drastic changes: to bankruptcy, reorganization, or a soft, long-term and consistent exit of the enterprise to higher indicators. Possibilities of anti-crisis management depend on the goal, the art of management of leaders, character, motivation, responsibility, external assistance from the state and municipal authorities, sometimes it turns out that enthusiasm is decisive, although its effect is short-lived. It is impossible to exclude from the anti-crisis management program national characteristics, cultural traditions, customs, as well as gross mistakes, lack of contact between leaders, selfish goals and other motivations. 1

According to the typology, crises can be partial, systemic, manageable, short-term and protracted, latent and local, accidental and regular, artificial and natural. Their consequences can be devastating. From an economic point of view, the classification of risks is also varied, these are frequent and speculative risks. Frequent risks are subdivided into natural, environmental, political, transport, property, production, trade and commercial.

The inability to manage crisis situations, untimely recognition of the causes and nature of the crisis and their consequences sometimes causes their protracted nature, turning them from lentant (hidden) crises into obvious ones.

The characteristics of the criteria for the economic crisis of the enterprise includes the real and the forthcoming. The real crisis is seen as determining the assessment of the situation, the choice and development of successful management decisions. But the danger of a crisis always exists, even when in reality it does not exist. It is important to know the signs of the onset of crisis situations and assess the possibilities for their resolution. If overcoming the crisis is a controlled process, then the success of management depends on the timely recognition of the signs of the phases of onset and stages of objective development. Monitoring anti-crisis development allows the management system to control processes, track trends according to certain criteria. The state plays an important role in anti-crisis management. Differentiating crises by typological affiliation, scale, problems, severity, area of \u200b\u200bdevelopment and possible consequences by state management organizations, the causes and possible consequences of global signs that can destroy the branches of the national economy are identified. For example, the management of Aeroflot made a decision to replace the fleet with foreign-made aircraft - Boeing and others. The management of the company explained its management decision by its high competitiveness, better quality characteristics, and the provision of soft loans. However, the analysis showed the possibility of a crisis development of the country's aviation industry. The forecast of the crisis was revealed on the basis of a special analysis of situations and trends. A decrease in the efficiency of aircraft production and their orders will lead to the decline of powerful factories and create an acute crisis. Reducing the production of domestic aircraft leads to a crisis. Therefore, recently contracts were concluded for the supply of large quantities of the latest aircraft, and a number of aircraft factories received orders. This was one of the examples of painless resolution of the crisis, its elimination due to foresight, confident and timely participation of the state in anti-crisis management. Therefore, the interests of the company and the country as a whole clashed here. For the company, its commercial interests are obvious, since it was profitable to purchase planes abroad on favorable terms, abandoning domestic technology, although in quality it is not inferior to foreign ones. The development of the crisis reveals imperfection of management, a lack of knowledge and the level of human development, the use of natural disasters, destruction in political and socio-economic crises.

In 90% of cases, the failures of small commercial firms are associated with inexperience of managers, incompetence of managers, their abuse, ineffective management, making erroneous decisions and inability to adapt to market conditions. Even large firms are not immune to such failures. For example, a large firm Hermes hired incompetent managers, which led to the bankruptcy of the firm. The main reason for the failures of commercial firms is the crisis situations created in the market due to changes in market conditions, as well as excessive production costs due to the use of outdated equipment, excessive management costs, rejects, irrational use of resources - all this leads to a decrease in competitiveness, the creation of risky venture capital firms that do not have time to respond to changing market requirements. Where no importance is attached to planning and forecasting the timing and amount of income, payments - the enterprise turns out to be insolvent. A negative sign is a decrease in the amount of funds in the company's accounts. The sharp increase also points to ineffective investment policy. This often starts with an increase in receivables. Sharply increasing customer debts and lengthening the terms of receivables can lead to bankruptcy. The anti-crisis management must take measures to change the commercial credit policy to its customers, select solvent ones and expand them, and provide additional income. 1

The most positive signs of solvency is an increase in liquidity indicators. An increase in accounts payable, arrears to employees for payment of wages, taxes and other payments to the budget - this is a clear sign of the creation of insolvency with an increase in the debt of the resource supplier and creditors. For example, a company received a loan and is unable to pay it off on time. At the same time, debt obligations increase even more due to penalties.

The main indicator of the coming crisis may be an increase in overhead costs and a decrease in profits, a decrease in sales. Future crises arise in successful enterprises. Their reasons are difficult to predict. They largely depend on the marketing service and a low level of research work: product updates, the introduction of promising technologies and new cheaper and higher quality raw materials, the company's personnel policy and depend on the course and occurrence of various risks. The classification of risks depends on the conditions and can change within the stated purpose. Current risks arise as a threat or danger of the possibility of loss today, a shortfall in profit due to a shortfall in income. The situation created in retrospect can turn out to be risky for the present reality. When there is a risky situation and the possibility of quantitative and qualitative determination of the degree of likelihood of an adverse effect in the form of a flood, fire, earthquake, erroneous decision of the head of a commercial company.

An always risky situation is associated with statistical processes in the presence of uncertainty, the necessary choice of the optimal solution and the possibility of error, the probability of the chosen decisions or events.

But the probability of the expected result can be obtained on the basis of subjective assessments of the dynamic development of risks. They include financial risks, tax, innovation, R&D risks, investment risks with lost profits, reduced profits and risks of direct financial losses. Often investment risks arise from the activities of firms, banks with securities, which are called portfolio risks and are divided, depending on the operations, into diversified and systematic risks.

1.4. Specificity of anti-crisis planning

Anti-crisis planning (ACP) is the direction of planning, which is carried out as one of the functions of anti-crisis management.

Unlike intra-firm planning (ICP), carried out within the framework of a "financial healthy" enterprise, the agro-industrial complex takes place in different phases of the enterprise crisis (unprofitability, loss-making, insolvency) and within the framework of various pre-arbitration (pre-trial resolution) and arbitration procedures (supervision, financial recovery, external management, bankruptcy proceedings). There are other specific differences that need to be dwelt on: these are the features of the automatic transmission system and mechanism.

The system of plans has a form (structure) and content. In the substantive aspect, the ACP system, in contrast to the WFT system, has a typical goal (not a mission) - "financial recovery of the enterprise", for the achievement of which it is necessary to solve three typical tasks 1 :

1) elimination of insolvency;

2) restoration of financial stability;

3) settlement with creditors.

These precise benchmarks (goal and objectives) determine the specifics of anti-crisis planning:

Clarity, concreteness and purposefulness of the content of the entire system of plans.


Coincidence of strategic and tactical concepts (including the timing of implementation).


Focusing on financial, restructuring and marketing activities.


Inclusion of new “steps” or elements in the planning process, such as “Debt restructuring”, “Settlement with creditors”, “Program for the implementation of the Enterprise Financial Recovery Plan” (FOP plan).


Increasing the share of the FOP plan among other plans.


Complication of the interweaving and hierarchy of types of plans: "FOP plan", "External management plan", "Business plans".


Interrelation and subordination of the types of plans to the procedures of reorganization or liquidation of the debtor enterprise (according to the Federal Law "On Insolvency (Bankruptcy)" dated 26.10.2002).


The use of extreme methods for the implementation of plans, and hence the planning of extreme events.


The structural and substantive features of the ACP system are determined, on the one hand, by the internal and external conditions in which the debtor enterprise is located, on the other, by the principles on which the anti-crisis planning process is based.


The specifics of the conditions in which the automatic transmission takes place:


Tightness of planning time (approximately one month, except in special circumstances).


Lack of internal, especially financial resources.


The negative influence of external, especially market, factors on the entire ACP process, including the constant deterioration of the state of the enterprise at different stages of the planning process and implementation of plans. The situation of an enterprise can be compared to a person who has fallen into a swamp, who sinks there deeper and deeper every minute, and consequently, all parameters of his external and internal well-being change.


Hence the need for constant monitoring of changes in the internal and external environment, making adjustments to operational planning and implementation of anti-crisis measures.


The special role of control at all stages of planning: from the inside - by the arbitration manager; from outside - by creditors.


Unfavorable socio-psychological climate at the enterprise, the possibility of falsifying the initial data and (or) sabotaging the planned activities.


Taking into account the peculiarities of the crisis phase of the debtor enterprise and its forecast models.


The impact of changes in the Laws and Codes of the Russian Federation on the AKU and AKP procedures (for example, the introduction of a new procedure "Financial recovery" - Chapter V of the new Federal Law "On insolvency (bankruptcy)" dated 26.10.2002, which should be equipped with planning and implementation mechanism ).


The system of anti-crisis plans, as well as the planning process, is based on certain principles, namely:

unity of goals and objectives of planning at all hierarchical levels:
RF, subjects of the RF, enterprises;


exact adherence to each letter of the Federal Law "On Insolvency (Bankruptcy)" dated 26.10.2002, No. 127 F-Z;


systemic, process, situational approach to planning anti-crisis measures and their implementation;


the principle of optimality and economic efficiency;


priority principle (ranking goals and objectives by their importance);


the principle of variance (development of alternatives, their comparison, assessment and selection of the best option);


principle social responsibility (to the staff of the enterprise and society).

The specificity of the ACP lies in the extremeness of external and internal conditions for the functioning of the debtor organization, dictating other planning principles that must be taken into account: risk - to the manager in the system of plans, in the process and procedures of anti-crisis planning.

2. BUSINESS PLANNING IN ANTI-CRISIS MANAGEMENT CONDITIONS

2.1. The essence and main provisions of the development of a business plan

Business planning of production and commercial activities is not only possible, but also vital for all organizational and legal forms of enterprises. The market does not suppress or deny planning in general, but only moves it mainly to the primary production link - enterprises and their associations. Even in the country as a whole, the area of \u200b\u200bnecessary planning is not replaced by the completely invisible regulatory hand of the market. Both in the West and in the East, states define strategies for their economic development, global environmental problems, major social and scientific and technical programs, the distribution of the country's budget, defense, etc. At the level of enterprises, not only strategic (long-term) self-planning is carried out, but also detailed development operational (current) plans for each department and even a workplace. In the calendar plans (monthly, ten-day, quarterly, semi-annual), the goals and objectives set by the long-term and medium-term plan are specified in detail. Production schedules include information about orders, their availability with material resources, the degree of utilization of production facilities and their use, taking into account the timing of each order. They also provide for the costs of reconstruction of existing facilities, replacement of equipment, training of employees, etc. In market conditions, stable enterprises widely use the advantages of planning in competition.

First of all, when justifying the provisions of the business plan, it is advisable:

to focus on issues that may be of interest to those to whom they are addressed - employees of the enterprise, partners or other external consumers;


present the essence of the project in the most accessible form at the very beginning of the business plan;


justify all calculations and indicators in such a way that they are real and reliable, without exaggerating or embellishing the economic results of the project.


A business plan begins with a title page, which usually indicates 1:


the name of the project, for example, "business plan for creating a wallpaper production enterprise";


place of preparation of the plan;


names and addresses of founders;


the purpose of the business plan and its users.


The title page is followed by a table of contents - the formulation of sections of the plan, indicating the pages and highlighting the most important points in accordance with the characteristics of a particular project.


The confidentiality memorandum is drawn up to prevent all parties from disclosing the information contained in the plan and using it solely in the interests of the company that submitted the project.


Resume - a summary of the main provisions of the proposed plan, including the following fundamental data: ideas, goals and essence of the project; features of the offered goods (services, works) and their advantages in comparison with similar products of competitors; strategies and tactics for achieving the set goals; qualification of personnel and especially leading managers; demand forecast, sales of goods (services, works) and the amount of revenue in the next period (month, quarter, year, etc.); the planned cost of production and the need for financing; expected net profit, rate of return and payback period; the main success factors are the description of methods of action and activities.


Description of the industry - analysis of the current state and development prospects of the selected business industry, including the characteristics of: its raw material base; segment (niche) of the market and the company's share in it; potential customers and their capabilities; regional structure of production; fixed assets and their structure; investment conditions.


Analysis of the investment attractiveness of the business sector consists of three stages 1: multivariate analysis of the level of intensity of industry competition; determining the stage of development of the chosen industry; direct analysis of the investment attractiveness of the industry.


When choosing a business area and industry, information about their position in the world division of labor and in the international market, export opportunities, as well as production and technical ties with other sectors of the national economy, for which the products of this industry may be of interest, are useful (Fig. 1).


In any country, there are prohibited areas of business (smuggling, pornography, etc.), as well as types of activities that are the subject of state monopoly (weapons, pesticides, drugs, etc.).


For many entrepreneurs, there are economic restrictions on penetration into one or another industry: high level initial capital; long payback period of investment; uncertainty in achieving profit (education, etc.).


It is also necessary to take into account the current conjuncture, since entrepreneurial activity is subject to cyclicality: prosperity, stagnation, recession.


In addition, economic situations differ not only in time, but also in space - by districts and regions. It is more difficult to enter a monopolized industry than a competitive one. An entrepreneur chooses a field of activity from four main types of business (Table 1).





Figure: 1. - The main factors in choosing a field of business


Table 1


Brief description of the main types of business


Business type	Main functions	Organizational forms
Industrial	Production of goods, works, provision of services	Commercial organizations (enterprises, firms, companies)
Commercial	Purchase and sale of goods and services	Trade organizations, commodity exchanges
Financial	Purchase and sale of currency, securities, investment	Banks, stock exchanges, financial companies, trust and other organizations
Intermediary	Service	Commercial organizations
Insurance	Insurance and reinsurance	Insurance companies




For success in business, it is important not only to correctly define the market for oneself, but also to find on it one's own, often very narrow area, a place that is not yet occupied or underutilized by competitors - a “niche” of the market, ie. a limited scope of entrepreneurial activity, focused on a specific consumer and allowing a businessman to realize his opportunities in the most efficient way. Searching for a "niche" in the market is like looking for free space, a vacuum that must be filled as soon as possible. In essence, the "niche" of the market is a combination of the urgent and fully realized needs and problems of society with somewhat not fully realized, non-traditional forms, methods, methods of their solution and satisfaction 1.


2.2. Features of a business plan in a crisis management environment


The business plan is drawn up in order to substantiate and make decisions to restore the organization's solvency in full, its financial stability and effective performance in the long term.


The main objectives of the organization's business plan are 2:


- determination of short-term and long-term goals of the organization;


- development of specific areas of production and economic activities of the organization in accordance with the needs of the market and the possibility of obtaining the necessary financial resources;


- development of a set of procedures to improve production, financial potential (financial policy), management system, supply and sales;


- carrying out an inventory of property and determining the composition of free assets for their subsequent sale;


- justification of the application for financial assistance;


- substantiation of the change in the production orientation of the organization and the release of new types of products that are more profitable for the organization;


- justification, if necessary, of reorganization of a legal entity (division, accession, separation, etc.);


- development of a plan of specific measures for the financial recovery of the organization, the timing of their implementation;


- development of an action plan for the restructuring of accounts payable and receivable.


The main sections of the business plan and their content 1:


1. Description of the organization, its characteristics. The results of the analysis of the financial condition of the organization. The reasons for the financial instability of the organization.

Products and services - types of products, volume, consumer properties, capabilities of the production and technical base for the release of new products, the availability of qualified personnel.


Management and organization. Organizational and production management structure of the organization, personnel policy. Functions, duties, powers and responsibilities of management personnel. Payment and incentives, motivation of interests.


Production plan - description of the range, new developments, characteristics of technology, fixed assets, raw materials and materials, labor resources, mechanization, types and schemes of cooperation, quality control, product service.


5. Marketing is the most important part of a business plan, research of the market for the supply of material resources and sales of products, competition (the impact of competitors on the market, strengths and weaknesses of competitors, future sources of competition), forecast of sales and forecast of consumption of products, pricing (assessment of own costs, market price analysis, real prices), distribution methods (types of distribution channels, intermediaries, direct deliveries), sales promotion methods (advertising, personal experience sales, consumer incentives: discounts, gifts), direct marketing, etc.


Provides more detailed descriptions of the most important elements of marketing, advertising for example.


Branded advertising is an advertisement of an enterprise, its successes and merits. The task of corporate advertising is to create in society, among potential customers, a preferred image of the company, an image of the company that would inspire confidence in the company itself and all the goods it produces.


As a means of distributing advertising of an enterprise, the following may be indicated:


- press (newspapers, magazines, books, reference books);


As an example of measures that contribute to the restoration of solvency and support the effective economic activity of the enterprise, the following can be cited: change of the management level of the enterprise; enterprise inventory; restructuring of receivables and payables; reduction in production costs; sale of subsidiaries and shares in the capital of other enterprises; sale of construction in progress; optimization of the number of personnel and provision social benefits for the laid-off; sale of surplus equipment, materials and stored finished products; debt conversion by converting short-term debt into long-term loans; progressive technologies, mechanization, production automation; improving the organization of work; overhaul, modernization of fixed assets, replacement of obsolete equipment, purchase of additional fixed assets.


6. Capital - the structure of equity and borrowed capital, assessment of the use of capital, the issue of securities (shares, bonds).


7. Risks - internal (by type of activity: production, finance, sales, etc.) and external (economic, market, etc.).


8. Plan (program) of specific measures (measures) for the financial recovery of the organization, increasing its financial stability and competitiveness. Evaluation of their effectiveness from implementation (pessimistic and optimistic assessments).


9. Financial plan - describes the financial results for the past period, provides a forecast of financial results, a schedule of settlements with debtors and repayment of accounts payable (special attention to overdue liabilities, structure of income and expenses, forecast of cash flow by quarters, forecast of investment activities, assessment of expected the results of the organization.


2.3. Functions and principles of business planning


In the most general case, a plan is an image of something, a model of a desired future or a system of measures aimed at achieving the set goals and objectives. A business plan, as one of the most common types of plans at present, is: an entrepreneur's working tool for organizing his work; a detailed program (rationally organized measures, actions) for the implementation of a business project, providing for the assessment of expenses and income; a document characterizing the main aspects of the activity and development of the enterprise; the result of research and justification of a specific direction of the firm's activity in a specific market.


An enterprise may have several business plans at the same time, in which the degree of substantiation papering may be different. In a small business, a business plan and an enterprise plan may coincide both in scope and content.


Any business plan must provide convincing answers for the entrepreneur himself and his potential partners, at least five basic questions (Figure 2).





Figure: 2. Purpose of a business plan and its main elements


Business planning, as a necessary control element, performs a number of important functions in the business system, among which the following are of greatest importance:

initiation - activation, stimulation and motivation of planned actions, projects and transactions;


forecasting - foreseeing and justifying the desired state of the company in the process of analyzing and taking into account a set of factors;


optimization - ensuring the choice of an acceptable and best option for the development of an enterprise in a specific socio-economic environment;


coordination and integration - taking into account the relationship and interdependence of all structural divisions of the company with a focus on a single overall result;


management security - providing information about possible risks for the timely adoption of proactive measures to reduce or prevent negative consequences;


ordering - creating a single general order for successful work and responsibility;


control - the ability to quickly monitor the implementation of the plan, identify errors and possible adjustments;


education and training - the beneficial effect of models of rationally planned actions on the behavior of employees and the possibility of training them, including on mistakes;


documenting - the presentation of actions in documentary form, which can be evidence of successful or erroneous actions of the company's managers.


When developing business plans, it is necessary to observe the fundamental principles of planning, which create the preconditions for the successful operation of an enterprise in a specific economic environment.


The basic principles of intra-firm planning are as follows.


Necessity: 1) the mandatory application of plans in any field of activity is rational behavior of people; 2) before acting, everyone should know what he wants and can.


Continuity: 1) The planning process at the enterprise should be carried out continuously by: a) the sequential development of new plans after the expiration of the plans of previous periods; b) rolling planning - after a part of the planning period, an updated plan is drawn up, in which the planning horizon is increased, and for the remaining period the plan can be updated in connection with the appearance of previously unforeseen changes in the external environment or internal capabilities and orientation of the company.


Elasticity and flexibility: adaptation of the initial plans to changing conditions is carried out by: a) the introduction of planned reserves for the main indicators; b) the use of eventual (in case) planning for different situations of data distribution; c) using operational plans to account for emerging environmental changes; d) using alternative plans.


Unity and completeness: consistency is achieved in three main ways: 1) the presence of a common (single) economic goal and the interaction of all structural units of the enterprise on the horizontal and vertical levels of planning; 2) all conjugate partial plans of the structural units of the firm and areas of activity (production, sales, personnel, investment, etc.) in the relationship must insert a general summary plan of its socio-economic development; 3) inclusion in the plan of all factors that may be important for decision making.


Precision and papering:


1) any plan must be drawn up with a sufficiently high degree of accuracy to achieve the goal;


2) as the transition from operational short-term, medium- and long-term strategic plans, the accuracy and paperwork of planning, respectively, can decrease until only the main goals and general directions of the company's development are determined.


Efficiency: 1) planning costs should be commensurate with the benefits received from it; 2) the contribution of planning to efficiency is determined by improving the quality of decisions made.


Optimality: 1) at all stages of planning, the choice of the most effective solutions should be ensured; 2) is expressed in maximizing profits and other productive indicators of the company and minimizing costly ones, under predicted constraints.


The link between the management levels: 1) is achieved in three ways: a) by papering the plans "top-down"; b) enlargement of plans "bottom-up"; c) partial delegation of authority.


Participation: 1) Active participation of personnel in the planning process enhances their motivation for behavior; 2) Planning for yourself is psychologically and cost effective than for others.


Holism (a combination of coordination and integration): the more structural units and levels of enterprise management, the more expedient (more effective) it is to plan in them simultaneously and in interdependence. Planning at each structural level of an enterprise independently cannot be effective without interconnecting plans at all levels.


Planning object ranking:


1) investing in the most profitable goods (industries);


2) with the same competitiveness of goods - first of all, the development of production of goods with the highest sales volume.


Variation: development of several alternative plan options: optimistic, pessimistic, conservative, etc.


Social orientation provides for: 1) social development of the team; 2) ensuring environmental safety and ergonomic products manufactured.


Stability: immutability of plans capital investmentsotherwise large losses of resources and additional costs are possible


Adequacy: compliance of the planned indicators with the real situation is achieved: 1) an increase in the number of factors taken into account; 2) increasing the accuracy (validity) of forecasts.


The fundamental principles of planning are closely related to each other, ultimately orienting entrepreneurs towards a comprehensive justification of planned indicators and the achievement of the best social and economic results of the enterprise. They determine the content and orientation of the planned work at all stages of the project justification and its sequential implementation.


In addition to the listed basic principles, the planning process usually takes into account the general economic principles of scientific character, priority, dynamism, directiveness, efficiency, completeness, etc.


2.4. Stages of developing a business plan


Any type of entrepreneurial activity and the subsequent development of a business plan for a conceived project usually starts with a new idea. Business is impossible without a good idea. Entrepreneurial ability as the most important factor of production is expressed primarily in the ability to generate, accumulate and develop new ideas. In its most general form, an idea is a form of reflection in thoughts of the phenomena of objective reality, which includes a generalization of the experience of previous development and awareness of the chain of further business transformation.


Motivation, production, accumulation and implementation of ideas is manifested in the form of the entrepreneur's desire to satisfy his needs in the business process and its results. Need as a need or lack of material and spiritual benefits for existence.


The main stages of substantiation of an entrepreneurial project 1:


1. Justification of the project idea and information about the project: compliance of the project idea with the existing system of economic relations in the country; list of sponsors and reasons for their interest in the project; the main characteristics of the project (project goals, its preliminary main strategy, geographical area and share in the domestic and foreign markets, market niche; type of project location (market or resource orientation); economic policy of project support; products and its structure, enterprise capacities; outlines of economic , industrial, financial, social policy; national, sectoral and preparatory factors favorable for the project; information about the project (name, address, financial capacity, role in the project of the organizer or initiator of the project).


2. Market analysis marketing strategy, basics of project strategy: general economic analysis of the market; general economic indicators of demand for products envisaged by the project (population and its growth rates, per capita income and consumption, etc.); state policy, practice and legislation in the field of consumption, production, import and export of products envisaged by the project; restrictions on standards, obligations, taxes, subsidies, credit control and regulation of foreign relations; the current level of national production of projected products, including production for domestic consumption; the existing level of import; data on the behavior, habits and reactions of individual and group consumers, as well as data on trade practices; market research; forecasting changes in the capacity of the domestic market; the possibility of entering the markets of other countries; import of competing products; project goals (import substitution, use of available resources, penetration into the international market, etc.); project strategy (cost leadership, focus on a limited group of buyers, occupying a market niche) - means and actions to achieve goals; marketing strategy (market penetration, market development, product development, diversification); operational activities (collection, processing and systematic assessment of information about the market, market environment) demand and competition, customer behavior and consumer needs, the study of competing products, analysis of marketing tools and other factors; use of selected marketing tools in the short term; sales goals (turnover, market share, firm reputation, profit); marketing costs and revenues - determination of product sales prices (internal production and sales costs, customer response to different prices - price elasticity, competitors' pricing policy); "Promotion" of products (advertising, public relations, individual sales, sales promotion, brand policy); after-sales service of products (supply of spare parts, maintenance and repair services, creation of appropriate capacities in various geographic locations); "Optimal production capacity"; suitable technology (technological concept); technically viable production program; alternative marketing strategies with a forecast sales period based on the nature and type of products.


3. Raw materials and components, their classification, needs and supply strategy: mineral resources (paper information on reserves and physical and chemical properties resources); agricultural materials (information on quality, collection and removal methods, etc.); seafood (assessment of stocks, volumes and production costs, peculiarities of national policies and environmental restrictions); processed industrial materials (the possibility of interchangeability of semi-finished products, the possibility of using semi-finished products with varying degrees of processing depending on the nature of the technological cycle of the future project); auxiliary materials: the need for electricity, fuel, water and steam supply, packaging materials; general assessment of needs, taking into account the choice of location, technology and production capacity and project, sources of supply and potential bottlenecks in security costs environment - to adjust investments in buildings, structures, machinery and equipment; spare parts; supplies for social and other needs (especially during construction in remote and sparsely populated regions): food, medical and educational services, clothing, footwear, road construction (sand, gravel, asphalt, etc.); creation of special diagrams of technological flows, showing how and at what stage of the production process certain materials are consumed; paper analysis on a separate diagram of each stage of the process flow (taking into account the peculiarities of the machines, equipment, standards, etc.); general need for materials and components; sources of supply (external, internal, their location); transportation of materials and possible transport costs; assessment of alternative options for the end use of the supplied materials and the possible impact of such use on the degree of their availability; the goals of the strategy for the supply of raw materials and components (minimizing costs, minimizing risk and optimizing business relationships with suppliers); delivery program - the basis for calculating costs (identification of sources of supply and suppliers, agreements and contracts, means of transportation, storage, assessment of the risk of supply disruption).


4. Location and environment analysis: development of several alternative options, taking into account: environmental situation, geographic conditions, environmental impact of the project and environmental impact assessment; state social and economic policy, incentives and restrictions, infrastructure of the project area; selection of a production site from several options, taking into account: natural conditions (soil, climate, etc.); environmental impact (restrictions, standards); local infrastructure in the area of \u200b\u200bthe production site; strategic aspects; land value; the cost of preparing the production site.


5. Engineering preparation of the project and technology: development of a preliminary production program, taking into account market and resource constraints for various production levels at a minimum price level (after determining the proposed sales volume, a paper production program is developed); determination of the need for materials and labor (drawing up balances of material and labor resources) for different stages of production and different levels of utilization of production capacity; production capacity: nominal maximum (a benchmark for determining the real degree of utilization of production capacity), normal production capacity (optimal level of production, taking into account the interaction of technology, availability of resources, investment and production costs); careful study of alternative technology options and know-how, taking into account the nature and needs of the market, the availability of resources, environmental factors, project implementation strategy; choice of technology based on an assessment of the possible impact on the environment, economy and social environment. Stage-by-stage assessment: problem statement; description of technology, forecast of technology development; description of the social sphere, forecast of the social sphere; identification of technological impact; analysis of technology policy; evaluation of results; sources of technology (know-how): a) licensing; b) acquisition of full rights to technology; c) joint ownership of the right to use technology; development of a project implementation plan - the basis for financial support and calculation of all costs; compilation of a list of the necessary equipment broken down by groups (technological, mechanical, electromechanical, instrument and instrumentation, transport and conveyor, etc.); compiling a list of spare parts, scientific equipment and instruments; development of a preliminary plan for construction and installation works; determination of the needs for repair work, taking into account the available opportunities; initial calculation of the cost of construction based on unit costs (per 1 sq. m. area);


6. Organization and management of the enterprise: stages of development of the organizational structure: definition of commercial goals and objectives; identification of the functions necessary to achieve the set goals; grouping of required functions; organizational structure development; preparation of training and recruitment programs ”; organizational structure development (3 levels): upper management level (long-term strategic, economic and budget planning, control and coordination of activities); average level of management (planning and control over various project functions: sales, production, financing, etc.); lower level of management (daily control over current operations); organizational design - the creation of administrative divisions (general management, finance and financial control, personnel management, marketing and sales, supply, transportation and storage. Production, economic calculations, quality of repairs, etc.); initial overhead calculation: costing.


7. Determining the need for labor resources: classification of labor resources: by category (management and production personnel, skilled and unskilled workers); by functional characteristics (general managers, production managers, administrative personnel, machine operators, drivers, etc.); determining the need for senior management personnel at the stage of formulating a project idea; determination of the need for labor, based on the socio-economic characteristics of the region of the project implementation (labor mobility, the possibility of using female labor, etc.); Development of programs for the training and retraining of personnel at the stage of design and construction of the facility (costs from 10 to 15% of investment costs); estimation of the costs of hiring, training and retraining personnel.


8... Planning the project implementation process: stages of the process implementation: formation of the project implementation team; company formation; financial planning; creation of organizational structures; acquisition and transfer of technology; recruitment of labor resources; technological design; preliminary assessment of contracts (agreements); preparation of tender documents; tender, opening of tenders, evaluation of tenders; negotiations and conclusion of contracts (agreements); paper technological design; purchase of a land plot; construction works; installation of equipment; purchase of materials (raw materials, semi-finished products, components, etc.); pre-marketing; commissioning of facilities; start of production; development of the implementation schedule: implementation from the creation of a special group for the implementation of the project to performance testing of equipment and the entire production; constant marketing of costs at all stages.


9.Financial analysis, assessment of investments and project financing: analysis and assessment of costs, results and future net income, expressed in financial categories; methodological principles (analysis of the reliability of project information, analysis of the structure and significance of costs and projected income to determine the most important factors that have a decisive influence on the feasibility of investments; a definite assessment of the annual cumulative financial net income, expressed in the categories of profitability, efficiency and investment volumes; taking into account the time factor in prices, the cost of capital: the process of making investment decisions in conditions of uncertainty (taking into account entrepreneurial risk); objects of financial analysis (determining the most attractive alternative project in the conditions of the current level of uncertainty, identifying the most important factors and possible strategies for managing and controlling the corresponding risks, determining the structure and the amount of financial resources required for the implementation and operation of the project, options and acquisition at the lowest price and the most effective options for their use); classification of costs; methods of economic assessment of investment projects; traditional methods evaluation of investment projects: a method for determining the payback period; method for determining the simple rate of return; discount methods for evaluating investment projects: method of net present value (VAT); method of internal rate of return (IRR); method of discounted payback period (DPO); evaluation of an investment project using several methods and choosing the most optimal method; project financing and needs assessment: preliminary (before the feasibility study); final (after choosing the location, determining the production capacity, calculating the costs of site preparation, construction, acquisition of technologies and equipment); share capital (issue of common and preferred shares); debt capital: short-term and long-term loans against working capital (commercial banks and suppliers different types raw materials and materials); long-term loans (national government and international financial institutions) to finance new projects; lease financing for equipment (leasing companies, banks, industrial development agencies); financial indicators of production activities: debt ratio; indicator of current debt; long-term debt coverage ratio; indicator of the ratio of receivables to payables; economic indicators: capital / product (margin ratio); net present value; current return on investment; effective employment.


Finally, the whole set of factors turns into a plan and a plan of action. This is followed by the expression of will - the practical implementation of the business plan and the ideas embedded in it.


The entrepreneur's activity in the selection and implementation of business ideas technologically takes place in general four enlarged phases (Table 2).


At the first stage of preparing a business plan, the mission (philosophy, vision of the enterprise) is determined - a short description of the business unit, its main goals, purpose, scope, norms of behavior and role in solving social problems of the region, society 1.

table 2


Phases of selection, evaluation and implementation of entrepreneurial ideas


P / p No.	Phase name	Main content
	Search for a new idea and factors of its origin	Motives, market conditions, advances in science and technology, unconscious and unmet demand, etc.
	Analysis of the potential and real value of an idea	Identification of the necessary conditions and the availability of technical, economic and social opportunities for the implementation of the idea (the need for initial capital, the rate of return, the payback period, the main indicators of production, the goal).
	Risk assessment	Types of risks, sources of their occurrence and measures to minimize the risk of bankruptcy and financial losses.
	Development of a business plan for the project	Action plan for achieving the goal: selection of technology, provision of resources, process control, etc.

The second stage is defining the goals of developing a business plan. The goal is the future desired state of the enterprise, the motive or master of the behavior and actions of its employees.


Formation of a business plan, ideas for creating a new or significant change in an existing company goes through several stages that can be consolidated or paperized to varying degrees (see Fig. 3).








Figure: 3. Stages of forming a business plan


In the business system, the goal performs five functions: initiatives - comparison of the existing and desired state of the company, the motive for action; decision-making criteria - assessment of information and choice of alternatives, priorities in business; management tool - guiding requirements for actions, defining business directions; coordination - ensuring conflict-free relations between decision-makers, coordinating the work of specialized units; control - comparing the operational state of economic activity indicators with their target level.


In contrast to the mission, the goals express more specific directions of the enterprise.


The goals should be clear, clear, unambiguously understood and formulated in terms reflecting the perspective future state of the enterprise. Therefore, when developing goals, it is necessary to take into account a whole set of requirements for their content and form.


On the basis of the general goal of the enterprise, the particular goals of the functional units (marketing, personnel, etc.) are formed, which concretize and paperize the tasks of the structural units.


The effectiveness of an entrepreneurial project depends on a correct assessment of external factors, which, as a rule, cannot be immediately influenced by a firm. These factors are numerous and include: the general political and economic conditions for business development in the country, legislation, the level of income of the population, established consumption traditions, the culture of the population, its demographic structure, and a number of other important parameters (Figure 4). In addition, information about the competitive environment and the current level of demand for these or similar goods and services is important for an entrepreneur 1.


One of the essential factors is the perception of competition and competitors. It is useful to record it by comparing an entrepreneurial project, goods and services with those goods that are already on the market.


A comparison within the competition triangle of the market capacity, the possibility of its segmentation, the benefits offered to the consumer by competitors and the project being implemented should answer the question about the prospects of the project in conquering a sufficient market segment.


The location and analysis of information about the external environment and the strengths and weaknesses of the company will help the entrepreneur to soberly assess his situation in the market and develop an appropriate strategic line of conduct.


The most favorable situation for a firm arises when the favorable opportunities of the external environment coincide with the strengths of the enterprise. On the contrary, threats from the environment, imposed on the weaknesses of the enterprise, create the preconditions for a crisis situation and the impossibility of doing business. An entrepreneur, taking into account various combinations of external and internal factors, forms the main strategic directions of the enterprise and, accordingly, adjusts in accordance with them the entire content of the business plan and the activities of his company.


In case of fundamental changes in the activities of the company, in the event of a crisis and the threat of bankruptcy, the management must immediately.





Figure: 4. The main factors of development of the enterprise














IS IT ENOUGH


EFFECTIVE OUR


ACTIONS








Figure: 5. Triangle of competition


At the third stage, after defining the mission, goals, and strategy of the enterprise, the general structure of the business plan itself is established. The size and structure of a business plan is influenced by the size of the enterprise and the tasks set. For small firms, they usually draw up a plan of a simplified structure - in two parts: a brief description of the project and a main part containing more detailed calculations and justifications.


The fourth stage of business planning is to collect the information needed to develop each section of the plan. This is an important and very time consuming part of the planning work. Sources of information can be special industry reference books, standards of design organizations, specialized firms, materials of statistical bodies, special studies and observations; knowledge of highly qualified economists, consultants, as well as employees of the enterprise, who are well aware of the internal environment of the company and their business.


The next, fifth stage of planning is the direct development of individual sections and the design of the entire business plan in the form of a single document.


CONCLUSION


Thus, anti-crisis planning is the direction of planning, which is carried out as one of the functions of anti-crisis management. At the same time, anti-crisis planning takes place in different phases of the enterprise crisis (unprofitability, loss-making, insolvency) and within the framework of various pre-arbitration (pre-trial resolution) and arbitration procedures (supervision, financial recovery, external management, bankruptcy proceedings), while there are features of the system and mechanism the planning itself. The specificity of anti-crisis management lies in the extremeness of external and internal conditions for the functioning of the debtor organization, dictating other planning principles that must be taken into account: risk - to the manager in the system of plans, in the process and procedures of anti-crisis planning.


In a market economy, a business plan is a working tool used in all areas of entrepreneurship. The business plan describes the process of functioning of the company, shows how its leader is going to achieve their goals and objectives, primarily increasing the profitability of work. A well-developed business plan helps the company grow, gain new positions in the market where it operates, draw up long-term plans for its development, concepts for the production of new goods and services, and choose rational ways to implement them.


The business plan is one of the constituent documents that determine the development strategy of the company. At the same time, it is based on the general concept of the company's development, develops the economic and financial aspect of the strategy in more detail, and provides a feasibility study for specific measures. The implementation of the strategy is based on broad investment programs, drawn up as a whole system of interrelated technical, organizational and economic changes in certain period time. The business plan covers one of the parts investment program, the implementation period of which, as a rule, is limited to several years (often corresponding to the terms of medium-term or long-term loans), which makes it possible to give a fairly clear economic assessment planned activities.


Business planning is not only the most important function of production management, but also an integral part of the success of any business activity. The greater the instability in the external environment, the more order should be in the internal organization of the enterprise's actions, the more attention should be paid to developing a strategy for market and organizational development and operational actions to implement these strategies.


LIST OF USED LITERATURE

1. On insolvency (bankruptcy): Federal Law of October 26, 2002 No. 127-FZ // SZ RF. 2002. No. 43. Art. 4190.
   

   Alekseeva M.M. Planning the activities of the company. Study guide. –M .: Finance and statistics, 2006.
   

2. Konokov A., Rozhkov K. How to get out of the crisis large enterprises // Problems of theory and practice of management, 2004. № 4. Assessment of the enterprise management system The role of complex economic analysis in the enterprise management system 2015-01-23

Introduction.

The entry of the Russian economy into market relations, the opening of the domestic market for the goods of foreign enterprises put the majority of Russian organizations in a difficult financial and economic situation. This resulted in the growth of insolvency and the subsequent bankruptcy of organizations.

It should be noted that there was not a single organization in the world that, to one degree or another, in its production and economic activities, did not experience crisis phenomena, economic and financial problems, often leading to bankruptcy. In connection with the transition of the Russian economy to market relations, the management of the organization, state and municipal authorities are faced with the task of preventing crisis phenomena and ensuring a stable position of the organization, since the bankruptcy of some organizations often causes a deterioration in the financial condition (solvency) of many others, giving rise to the so-called domino effect.

The solution of the problems of preventing crisis phenomena or mitigating their impact on the results of organizations' activities is possible with the help of a system of measures "anti-crisis management". Organizations of any form of ownership (state (municipal), joint-stock, private, etc.), type of activity and size are susceptible to crisis phenomena. In this regard, the problem of managing organizations in such conditions is very urgent for Russia.

A great contribution to the study of the problems of anti-crisis management was made by domestic economists: Yu. Osipov, S. Belyaev, V. Koshkin, S. Andreev, G. Ivanov, V. Panagushina, E. Minaev, E. Korotkov, A. Gryaznova, L. Blyakhman , E. Utkin and many others. Among foreign scientists, to one degree or another, dealing with the problem of anti-crisis management of an enterprise, one can single out - T. Poshan, E. Moran, I. Ansoff and others.

But at present there are very few works devoted to organizing the management process of enterprises in crisis. Some works focus on the crisis as such, its definition, types, causes, others mainly deal with the problems of anti-crisis management descriptively, without clear algorithms and calculations. Very little attention in these works is paid to anti-crisis management from the point of view of a systems approach.

The main goal of anti-crisis management of an organization should be to ensure for a long period of its competitive advantage (or equilibrium in the market), which will allow, through the sale of products, to receive enough money to pay all obligations, maintain reliable financial stability and further development of production. In this regard, the issues of managing an organization in a crisis are relevant at the present stage.

Therefore, there was both a scientific and a practical need to write this work on the theory and practice of crisis management in modern economic conditions.

Anti-crisis management should be based on management on the basis of constant monitoring of the organization's activities in order to timely diagnose the reasons for the deterioration of the financial condition and determine ways to restore it, ensure the existing profitability and activities, as well as the economic growth and development of the organization.

The following questions are very important in solving management problems:

In what periods of development of the organization can a crisis arise and develop;

To what extent is the danger of a crisis associated with a risky change in the organization itself and how it can be related to the development of the economic environment in which the organization in question operates.

The mechanism of anti-crisis management can be effective only if it is based on the objective laws of building the organization's production process. These patterns are manifested in interaction with the external environment of the enterprise, as well as in the systemic properties of the organization, which is a production, economic and social system.

Overcoming crises is a controlled process. This is evidenced by many crises that took place in the history of human development, production and economy.

An important role is played by the study of the external environment of the enterprise: economic, market, technical and technological, organizational, competitive, social, political and international factors and the identification of threats from these factors of the production and economic activities of the enterprise. Analysis of the external environment allows you to identify not only threats, but also opportunities, realizing which the company will be able to increase its competitive status.

The factors of the internal environment of the organization include: operational (production and management); financial (the result of irrational financial policy); investment related to the ineffective investment policy of the organization and others.

It should be borne in mind that the characteristics of the external and internal environment of the enterprise in the conditions of modern production and social development of workers of all categories are extremely mobile.

The world experience of countries with developed market economies shows that the crisis state in the activities of the enterprise is 25-30% associated with external factors (macroeconomic and general political nature) and 70-75% with internal (determined by the characteristics of production and economic activities). In Russia, external and internal factors are about 50% each.

Crisis management of the enterprise includes the management of marketing, finance, production, personnel and information.

Relevance This work is determined by the need for a scientifically grounded solution of the problems of formation and development of the organizational mechanism of anti-crisis management of the enterprise.

The purpose This work is the development and practical application of recommendations for the formation and improvement of the organizational mechanism of anti-crisis management of the organization of LLC TPK "Golden Compound".

In accordance with this goal, a number of tasks were set and solved:

the concept of anti-crisis management of an enterprise is given and a comparative characteristic of the difference between anti-crisis management and management in normal conditions is carried out;

disclosed the principles of the anti-crisis management process;

identified and theoretically investigated the main groups of factors that affect the financial and economic activities of the enterprise;

the role of the state in the regulation of anti-crisis management is determined;

methods of diagnostics of the financial condition of the enterprise are disclosed;

disclosed the principles of the system of mechanisms and measures for financial stabilization and investigated the models for restoring the company's solvency;

determined the role of restructuring as an organizational mechanism for anti-crisis management of an enterprise;

disclosed the main approaches to the construction and application of the plan of financial recovery of the enterprise;

analyzed the main indicators of the company's solvency.

Research object acts as an enterprise management aimed at ensuring financial stabilization and restoring solvency, as well as restructuring models, the experience of operating enterprises in Russia on the example of TPK Zolotoe Podvorie LLC.

The subject of research is system of methods and models of anti-crisis management of the enterprise TPK Zolotoe Podvorie LLC.

Work structure defined by the goals and objectives of the work. The first chapter "Review of anti-crisis management tools" examines the existing methods and mechanisms for financial stabilization, anti-crisis management tools, as well as analyzes the models for restoring solvency and the methodology for drawing up a financial recovery plan.

The second chapter presents the practice of anti-crisis management at TPK Zolotoe Podvorie LLC.

Chapter 1. Review of tools of anti-crisis management of organizations.

The role of anti-crisis management and restructuring in modern conditions.

Recently, such concepts as anti-crisis management and bankruptcy have become quite often identified. And yet they are quite different. For example, anti-crisis management, in addition to bankruptcy, includes issues of financial analysis and forecasting, comprehensive restructuring of an enterprise, clearing the business of the burden of debt obligations and effectively integrating it into functioning production and technological cycles, setting up management, financial accounting, marketing, etc. (as one of the forms of anti-crisis management) is a powerful legal instrument, because it solves problems and regulates relations arising between business objects: shareholders, business owners, debtors, creditors, the state 1.

In the fight against the threat of bankruptcy and recovery from the crisis, the company must rely solely on internal financial capabilities.

The above principles are the basis for organizing anti-crisis management of an enterprise, therefore, an anti-crisis program of an enterprise or an anti-crisis management plan is an action plan aimed at increasing the efficiency of a business and implementing a strategy for its development in a difficult competitive and / or financial situation, including aimed at preventing bankruptcy of an enterprise ... The most important goal of the anti-crisis program is the sustainability of the enterprise, which is manifested not only in achieving the required indicators of solvency and profitability, but also in maintaining their level, preventing a repeated crisis.

The objectives of the anti-crisis program:

Elimination of insolvency;

Restoring financial stability;

Ensuring financial balance in the long run.

Customer retention through improved product quality and lower prices based on increased production efficiency;

Attracting new customers by creating new products for the end consumer;

Restructuring an enterprise in order to increase its efficiency to counter the impact of the crisis.

When developing and implementing anti-crisis programs, it is important to pay

attention to increasing their efficiency, that is, better use of the allocated resources. The criterion of efficiency is the ratio of the increment in the enterprise's net income obtained through the investment of the program to the volume of investment. The return on investment can also serve as an indicator of efficiency.

Since the scientific and practical development of anti-crisis programs of companies is not enough, one has to focus on the general provisions of the methodology of program-targeted management, the methodology for the formation of target federal programs, as well as the experience of restructuring enterprises. At the same time, when determining the structure of the program, the activities included in it, indicators, resource sources and methods of managing its development and implementation, it is necessary to keep in mind the specifics of the industry.

The formation of the anti-crisis program should be preceded by a thorough analysis of the financial and economic activities of the enterprise, its assets and liabilities, accounts receivable and payable, provision of own funds, existing and possible orders, demand and prices for products and services. This allows you to identify the causes of the crisis, outline ways to overcome it.

Much has already been written about the crisis, its causes, negative manifestations and ways to overcome it. Among the recommendations, there are many that deserve attention and can be used in real practice. But it is very important to understand that the main condition for any successful work is consistency, which in a crisis becomes a critically necessary attribute of business management. Below is an attempt at a systematic presentation of all anti-crisis measures. The system is shown in Fig. 1, it has the shape of a fish, which is called the Issikawa diagram.

Figure: 1.

Let us give a brief description of each of the factors shown in the general diagram. Everything stated below is an attempt to systematically integrate an integral set of anti-crisis management measures. This does not mean that everything measures must be followed. After reading the contents of this paragraph, the leader himself must choose what suits him best and on what he should focus his efforts.

Strategy adjustment... As you know, the fish starts to spoil from the head. Therefore, we must start by adjusting the strategy. Leaving the company's mission unchanged, its vision should be revised, apparently abandoning the achievement of large ambitious goals, apparently for a while. Although the conditions of the crisis can provoke the emergence of new ambitious goals, for example, in terms of capturing the market of bankrupt companies or the takeover of weaker companies that have little chance of survival. It must be remembered that the crisis creates additional conditions for development, if you take advantage of the emerging opportunities wisely.

Reconsider your attitude to the crisis based on the following positive factors:

1. The crisis stimulates consolidation:
   • cheaper assets will lead to the fact that the weak will die, the strong will become even stronger,
   • consolidation will most likely occur in the retail of grocery and household goods, banks, pharmacies, etc.
2. Managers will receive management practice in a crisis.
3. There will be a reassessment of the system of risks, which in the recent period were considered too formally. After the crisis, risk management will become a more effective management tool.
4. Several “soap bubbles” will “blow away”, in particular, stock, real estate, oil, metals ...
5. The position of strong domestic players may be strengthened due to a possible decrease in competition from imports and additional export opportunities.

The listed factors are named here rather conditionally. They will be positive for those who can dispose of them. And this may be the company's new strategy.

Productivity increase. In times of crisis, speed is the decisive factor in maintaining a company's performance. It turns out that the famous formula of the general theory of relativity works in business: E \u003d mc 2 , however, with some amendments. E Is the effectiveness (productivity) of the business, m Is the mass (volume) of the resource used, and c - the rate at which this resource is used. The point here is that the speed is taken squared, i.e. has an order of magnitude greater impact than the amount of resource used. In the period preceding the crisis, the majority of the company, to put it mildly, "relaxed somewhat." The main focus was on the mass m , and not at speed: a large back-office staff was hired, the salaries of key specialists were constantly growing, realizing their importance, key specialists demanded comfortable conditions (expensive personal cars), entertainment expenses invariably grew, expensive offices were built or rented. This list could be continued. It got to the point that young graduates of the capital's universities demanded a starting salary of $ 1000. At the same time, no one thought about speed.

The crisis came and put everything in its place. There was a rapid reassessment of values. The question was posed bluntly: “Gentlemen, highly paid managers, if you were not able to foresee the crisis and now cannot overcome its consequences, then why do you receive high remuneration and why does business need you in general. Either turn on the high speed of your activity, or - goodbye, just goodbye, not goodbye. " Only those who can work effectively will remain. But working efficiently does not mean running fast around the office. It is necessary to quickly and in detail analyze all factors of growth of business productivity, if possible, excluding all operations that do not bring value to business processes. This refers to both technological and operational processes. In most cases, it is difficult to increase the speed of technological processes, as quality may suffer. At the same time, most organizational processes have huge reserves of acceleration. And here it is not necessary to mindlessly cut staff, saving costs. On the contrary, additional costs must be incurred to increase productivity. At one well-known gas well workover enterprise, instead of one operator, at a certain stage of the technological cycle, they began to use two, i.e. increased costs. As a result, equipment downtime was reduced to zero and well workover rate increased. And speed, as Einstein's formula says, is squared. In combination with other similar techniques, the amount of work performed by one brigade during its shift has increased. Ultimately, it became possible to cut one out of five permanent brigades at all, without losing the total turnover. The company's profit increased sharply due to the decrease in fixed costs.

This recipe is not universal - it is useful when production has a large amount of fixed overhead. As the ancient sages said, the truth is always concrete. In each specific case, it is necessary to find those ways to increase productivity that are acceptable for a particular business. And no one, except specialists working at the enterprise, can do it better. True, certain tools can be recommended to these specialists.

One of these tools is the theory of constraints (TOC), proposed by E. Goldratt. Note that this is an integral system of technologies, which in its essence reproduces the model of the weakest link, well known in technology. Suppose we want to strengthen the chain (improve the system). What would be the most logical place to focus your efforts? At the weakest link! Is it worth strengthening something else that is not a limitation? Of course not. The weakest link in the chain will still break, no matter how we strengthen the rest. In other words, the effort put into unrestrictedness will not result in immediate and measurable improvements in system performance.

Goldratt developed his approach to continuous improvement and called it Theory of Constraints (TOC). He even described it in novels that demonstrate the use of TOC technology.

Changing attitudes towards marketing. The fears of all marketing agencies amid the crisis are justified in the fact that "now all companies will begin to cut their marketing budgets." And in fact, this is actually observed during the crisis: being in a panic, companies begin to reduce what they can temporarily do without. This is, first of all, the cost of training and product promotion to the market. Such measures seem to be justified only at some, perhaps, very early stage of the crisis development. If this strategy continues in the future, the company may simply lose its competitive edge. The staff will not be able to solve the tasks set by the management, and the market will gradually forget about these competitive advantages.

Basically, there are two alternatives to the attitude to marketing in the company.

Alternative 1. Marketing is the policy of consumers within the company, forcing the company to smoothly change in the direction desired by the majority of consumers. Companies reach out to consumers in the marketplace like this:

• "We will give you whatever you want if you become our loyal customers."
• "We are ready to spend a lot of money, if only you were our clients."

Alternative 2. Marketing must be profitable. In other words, marketing should measure the costs of promoting products with the result that is obtained as a result of numerous marketing programs in terms of all understandable economic indicators, such as profit, cash flow, etc.

In a crisis, a shift will occur towards the second alternative. But it can be achieved in different ways. The owner and management of the company can take the first, radical path. Simply take and reduce the marketing staff of the company as much as possible, while simultaneously cutting the budgets of all marketing programs. The problem asks if this will have an economic effect. Undoubtedly yes! The decrease in total costs caused by such a reduction will lead to an increase in profits and cash flow: "Thanks to the marketing, he helped us save costs, and, as you know, the money saved is money earned."

The second path in the framework of the alternative to profitable marketing involves deliberate behavior: 1) soberly assess the situation, 2) look for new opportunities. What is the first thing worth evaluating? Most companies manufacture several types of products and offer them in different markets. One operating unit can serve several markets at once, with different perspectives. Different operating units may work in the same area of \u200b\u200bdemand. So how many lines of business does the company actually have? Why is it important. The well-known 80/20 rule works here: 80% of the results of any activity are provided by 20% of the efforts. In times of crisis, the company cannot afford to scatter resources for non-core (non-profit) activities. First of all, it is worth focusing the attention of marketers on promising products and activities, focusing all marketing costs on this segment.

Management of economic factors. The main manifestation of the crisis that business is suffering from is the lack of money. In fig. 2 shows a diagram explaining the reasons and manifestation of the lack of money.

Figure: 2.

So, there are only three main reasons: 1) the company does not manage to sell a lot, 2) the company incurs high costs, 3) the company does not know how to manage working capital. These three reasons may not appear in standard, non-crisis, circumstances, but in crisis conditions they have arisen due to the unwillingness of management to reorganize to work in new conditions. The worst thing is when all three reasons appear at the same time, which is most often the case. As you can see from the diagram, the indicators that signal the management of the problem that have arisen are profit and cash flow. What should the management team focus on in the first place in order to at least reduce the impact of the problem of lack of money - on profit or on cash flow. Profit is a necessary but not sufficient condition for making money. In other words, to ensure the company's ability to generate money, it must make a profit. In standard, non-crisis conditions, this condition is considered unshakable. But in a crisis it is necessary to generate money in any way, and to do it quickly. What happens during a crisis? Sales are falling. This is the root cause. It is not possible to fix it quickly - the markets shrink. Partial compensation for the drop in sales can come from lower costs. This is what companies do best. But it is not a fact that cost reduction will not lead to an even greater drop in sales, which will ultimately lead to even greater losses. We discussed this possibility when analyzing marketing aspects.

During a crisis, a company needs time to restructure its activities in relation to crisis conditions: to shrink, cut some activities, optimize personnel. After such a restructuring, the company will learn to live in a new way and make a profit, most likely in smaller volumes, but adequate to shrinking markets. During this restructuring, the company cannot live without money. Therefore, money must be made or saved at any cost. So, from the two indicators of the circuit in Fig. 2 more important is the indicator of operating cash flow, rather than profit, at least at the initial stages of the crisis.

And this is where the Total Money Management technology, or TCM, from the English term comes to the rescue. Total Cash Management... The essence of TCM is manifested in the practical implementation of the following two fundamental provisions:

1) all aspects of the enterprise's activities must involve the available or fundamentally available monetary resources,
2) every employee of the enterprise can influence the state of monetary resources by applying some simple rules every day.

In many real situations, managers of enterprises in the course of their activities do not realize the exceptional importance of money. They don't understand that money is an absolutely liquid asset. Having money, a company can solve absolutely all problems, technological, marketing, and all the rest. This is especially acute in a crisis. The pragmatic goal of TCM is to create a system that:

• on the one hand contributes to the efficient generation of cash flows,
• on the other hand, it contributes to their no less effective use, again with the aim of generating subsequent cash flows.

It is important to understand that TCM is not just “Save Money” slogans that have to be posted throughout the firm to be successful. This is far from the case: TCM is, first of all, a system that covers all the activities of a company. The figure shows the main blocks of TCM.

Figure: 3.

The consistency of the TCM concept is manifested not only in the fact that each functional unit and even each person plays a role in the implementation of strategic objectives, but also in the fact that an additional effect can be created at the junction between units. In other words, improvements in one of the blocks shown in the figure can cause changes in other blocks so that the integral effect can be either greater or less than the sum of the two separate effects.

Transformation of investment and financial activities. It is generally accepted that investment activity should decline during a crisis. Real practice proves this, judging by the numerous reports on the suspension or termination of the construction of new production facilities, the cancellation of previously made decisions on investment. The reduction in investment activity occurs due to the fact that 1) there is simply not enough funds, 2) the prospects for new investment projects are unclear.

At the same time, the crisis provides an opportunity to increase the company's assets and expand the scope of its activities by absorbing other weaker enterprises. There is no doubt that during the crisis there is a redistribution of property - the strong absorb the weak.

So, the transformation of investment activity should be considered from two positions:

1) developing an attitude towards investment decisions made before the start of the crisis,
2) analysis of the possibilities of increasing investment activity by acquiring new assets, using the likely decrease in their prices.

In a crisis, it is necessary to revise the procedures and technologies used for the investment activity itself. Here are the typical properties of the investment activities of domestic companies:

1. An important business task of investment development is solved through outsourcing (entrusted to a consulting company).
2. The closed software products such as Project Expert are used, which do not give a transparent idea of \u200b\u200bthe business for the owner and management.
3. The main focus is on forecasting cash flows and calculating standard indicators (NPV, IRR, DPB) without deep insight into the practical economics of the project. At the same time, the choice of the discount rate does not correspond to the specifics of project financing.
4. The investment analysis lasts for 2-4 months and ends with a rather cumbersome description containing many unnecessary details.
5. It is often not possible to trace a direct connection between the business idea and / or technological improvement and the economics of the project.

In a crisis, this will not work. The main task of investment planning in a crisis environment is as follows:

We do it for ourselves, quickly and without mistakes.

So, still the speed and quality of the decisions made. Agree that there is nothing simpler than making a decision to buy companies that quickly lose their effectiveness, as a result of which their owners are ready to sell them cheaply. And then what? Resell to someone for a higher price. This is what the so-called portfolio investors usually do. It is not a fact that this speculative operation will be successful. This means that you need to buy in line with strategic goals. During a crisis, the takeover of weak companies will be carried out primarily by a strategic investor. The latter, by definition, will strive to develop the purchased object in order to earn even more money on it.

The strategic investor has two problems. First, you need to act quickly, otherwise another strategic investor will outstrip. Secondly, you cannot make a wrong decision, otherwise the money spent will not be returned. To minimize the risks of these two errors, the investment technologies used must meet the following requirements:

1. Technology should allow doing quick and correct conclusions about the feasibility of investments.
2. Technology must be flexible, i.e. able to make multiple recalculations depending on the changed conditions.
3. Technology must be individual, i.e. reflect the specifics of the existing business and special requests of owners and top management.
4. Technology must be open and transparent: the occurrence of each indicator should be traced ( the widely used Project Expert does not meet this requirement).
5. Technology must be as clear as possible for a potential potential investor: it is enough to show justify marketing forecasts and show financial tables, and the investor is ready to make a decision.

If a company owns such technology, it is able to avoid these mistakes. Otherwise, enterprises with negative economic results will be bought and resold.

Financial activities companies in a crisis occurs in the most stressful conditions. Essentially, all enterprises are switching to a financial hunger ration. This primarily applies to credit sources of financing.

Having money problems, the head of the company should not write off all of them on the crisis. A crisis, even an external one, actually reveals the company's hidden problems. There are three groups of reasons leading a company to a shortage of money. The first group includes market reasons, which can be both external and internal. This is, first of all, a drop in sales and shortcomings in assortment management. Indeed, sales volumes may fall due to an external cause, i.e. due to the contraction of markets, or may be the result of an imperfect marketing strategy of the company. Even if the markets are shrinking, the marketing strategy must find a way to maintain volume. Among the internal reasons for the shortage of money is the imperfection of the financial management system, which manifests itself in

• lack of management accounting,
• poor financial planning,
• low qualifications of financial managers,
• suboptimal structure of financial management,
• loss of control over costs.

The emerging external crisis should reveal all the internal causes, increasing the perfection of all aspects of the company's activities, in the conditions of objectively existing external causes.

What to do to reduce the shortage of money. First of all, one should not give in to panic and systematically present the directions in which it is necessary to act. The system of measures shown in Fig. 4 looks pretty simple.

Figure: 4.

Having built a kind of Procrustean bed of the system, it is necessary to think in detail about the possible ways. These measures will differ from company to company. Below is a list of the most typical measures for each of the groups.

1. Short-term measures to increase the flow of money:
   • sale or lease of non-current assets,
   • rationalization of the product range,
   • restructuring of receivables into financial instruments,
   • using a partial prepayment,
   • development of a system of discounts for buyers,
   • attraction of credit sources of short-term financing.
2. Short-term measures to reduce money outflow:
   • cost reduction,
   • deferral of payments for obligations,
   • use of supplier discounts,
   • revision of the investment program,
   • tax planning,
   • bill settlements and offsetting.
3. Long-term measures to increase the flow of money:
   • additional issue of shares and bonds,
   • company restructuring - liquidation or spin-off into separate business units,
   • search for a strategic investor,
   • search for a portfolio investor.
4. Long-term measures to reduce money outflow:
   • long-term contracts providing for discounts or deferred payments,
   • tax planning.

It is clear that not all of the listed measures are equally available in a crisis, this applies, for example, to the additional issue of shares or bonds. Nevertheless, a systematic search for financial opportunities should lead to success.

Mega-motivation system. This aspect of the overall program of transformation of the company's activities in a crisis is shown in the diagram in Fig. 1 in the form of a fish tail. As you know, with the help of its tail, the fish increases the speed of its movement. This is exactly what the mega-motivational system has. All of the above factors of restructuring the company's activities should start working very quickly, as many managers like to say: "I have to do this yesterday." How to make it all start working as early as possible? The basic answer is simple: it is necessary to put the company's personnel in conditions when they themselves will be interested or forced to do it. I recall a fragment of the film "Peculiarities of the National Hunt", when a cow was transported in the bomb bay of an aircraft. She could not be thrown out of the bomb bay. Then the commander expressed himself very figuratively: "if you want to live, you will not be so hot.

This is the fundamental meaning of the term mega-motivation. Megomatization can be implemented in two polar ways:

1) reduce N% of staff, motivating those who remain with the opportunity to continue working,
2) switch to pay-by-performance, enabling people to earn money by achieving higher goals that appear as a result of the crisis.

The first method is trivial, but it can be effective. The end effect of this method will be determined by how well the manager will properly "cleanse" the ranks of his staff. If the remaining staff is able to "swing up" in order for everyone to survive, then the effect is guaranteed. If they start flying out of the bomb bay, it means that they "cleaned" the wrong ones.

In this sense, the second method is largely insured against errors. The company's personnel are far from homogeneous in terms of their management skills and ability to work in crisis conditions. Since no one has experience of working in difficult conditions of a crisis, then management skills should appear (or appear) in the process of the crisis itself. This will not happen for everyone. But the owner or manager must create conditions for staff that will allow employees to understand for themselves whether their abilities and skills are adequate for the tasks. This can be done by creating a motivation system that minimizes the constant part of the reward and fundamentally increases the variable part, which will be determined by the achieved result. In such conditions, incapable workers will leave on their own, since they will not be able to achieve their goals and earn decent money. This approach can be formalized using KPIs, which quantitatively describe the task assigned to the employee. The technology for determining the variable part is described using Fig. five.

Figure: five.

As follows from the diagram of the figure, if an employee reaches the planned KPI value, he receives the planned remuneration. The amount of remuneration decreases proportionally with a decrease in the actually achieved KPI and becomes zero if the achieved KPI becomes less than a certain minimum value (the min point in the figure). If the actually achieved KPI becomes higher than the planned value, then the premium increases, but not infinitely, but up to a certain number (max point in the figure). The last feature of this algorithm insures the manager from understating the planned KPI value. During a crisis, the whole picture shifts to the right, setting higher goals for the employee and allowing him to earn more. If, in such a situation, the permanent part of the earnings is made very small, for example, at the level of the country's subsistence minimum, the employee will be forced to do everything possible and impossible to survive. And it again resembles a cow in a bomb bay.

The listed approaches are a motivational technology for individual managers, a kind of bonus tool. If the owner and manager thinks strategically, he must understand that this tool alone is not enough. He must analyze not only the current problems and how the company will live after the crisis. A strategically thinking leader must understand that he alone is not able to bring the company out of the crisis. Having or building a team is critical to working in a crisis. Only a strong team is able not only to withstand the crisis, but also to gain new advantages. You need to analyze who is on your team. What features and personal traits are characteristic of team members, and what tasks they solve.