The provision of retail space. Justification for calculating the norms for the provision of the population with the area of \u200b\u200bretail facilities Volume of retail space per 1000 inhabitants
24.08.2017Company expertsRRG calculated the prospective provision of Moscow with retail space for 2019. Also, during the analysis, the most promising areas for the development of shopping centers were identified, and the volume of areas that could be effectively built in each of the megaclusters was calculated.
The main findings of the study:
The provision of retail space in the Central megacluster by 2019 will be about 765 sq. m. for 1 thousand people. The provision of retail clusters within the boundaries of the Central megacluster is the highest: Lubyanka - 1230 sq. m, Arbat - 1117 sq. m, Moscow City - 1101 sq. m, Tverskoy - 825 sq. m, Tagansky - 820 sq. m. But taking into account the specifics of the location, powerful "day" traffic, the demand for retail in the central part of the city, the availability in the megacluster can be increased to 1500 sq. m. m per thousand inhabitants. The central megacluster should be considered separately from other megaclusters, since it is characterized by a very high concentration of the “daytime” population, mostly office workers and tourist traffic.
In second place after the Central megacluster is Kutuzovsky with an indicator of 661 sq. m. The level of its provision will increase due to the opening of the Vegas Kuntsevo shopping center by Crocus Group. Next in the ranking are the Volokolamsk, Leningrad and Warsaw megaclusters. Relatively low retail saturation will be recorded in such megaclusters as Shosse Entuziastov, Shchelkovsky, Volgogradsky, Dmitrovsky, Leninsky.
If we predict the supply of megaclusters with the largest super-regional format (shopping centers with GLA from 80 thousand sq. M.), Then Zelenogradsky - 300 sq. M. Will be among the top leaders. m per 1,000 people, Leningradsky - 294 sq. m, Volokolamsky - 208.5 sq. m, Yaroslavsky - 207.5 sq. m, Warsaw megaclusters - 164.5 sq. m.
If we assess the prospective retail supply of clusters (with the exception of those included in the Central megacluster), then the maximum indicators will be demonstrated by the clusters Yaroslavsky, Yuzhny Port, Matushkino-Savelki, Krylatskoye, Davydkovo, Mozhaisky, Kuntsevo, Khodynka, Matveevskoye, Fili.
As a conditional point of saturation with retail real estate for Moscow and the nearest cities of the region, RRG specialists have adopted a mark of 600 sq. meters per 1,000 people. In a number of clusters, especially in the East and South-East, South-West of the city, the retail supply is below 300 sq. m per thousand people. Thus, retail saturation in Novogireevo is 167 sq. m per thousand people, Ivanovskoe cluster - 178 sq. m, Preobrazhensky - 179 sq. m.
The most promising for development are 4 mega-clusters: in the Volgogradsky mega-cluster, about 360 thousand sq. m of retail real estate, in Shchelkovsky - 280 thousand, Leninsky - 255 thousand square meters. m, Shosse_Entuziastov - 215 thousand sq. At the same time, developers have already begun to actively develop the Leninsky megacluster: the Horus group has begun construction of the Salaris shopping and entertainment center with a leasable area of \u200b\u200b105 thousand sq. m. m, Crocus Group plans to build the Vegas shopping and entertainment center on the Kiev highway.
Table 3. Prospective provision of retail space for the population of MEGACLASTERS in Moscow by 2019, sq. m per 1,000 inhabitants
|
Megacluster |
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Central |
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|
Kutuzovsky |
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|
Volokolamsky |
|||
|
Leningradsky |
|||
|
Varshavsky |
|||
|
Zelenogradsky |
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|
Kashirsky |
1 million 136 thousand |
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|
Yaroslavsky |
|||
|
Leninist |
1 million 700 thousand |
||
|
Dmitrovsky |
1 million 156 thousand |
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|
Volgograd |
1 million 409 thousand |
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|
Shchelkovsky |
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|
Highway Enthusiasts |
Source: company dataRRG
Table 4. TOP-20 Prospective provision of retail space for the population of Moscow CLUSTERS by 2019, sq. m per 1,000 inhabitants
|
Cluster |
Megacluster |
Population by 2019 |
Supply of retail space, sq. m / 1 thousand inhabitants |
|
|
Yaroslavsky |
Yaroslavsky |
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|
South port |
Kashirsky |
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|
Matushkino-Savelki |
Zelenogradsky |
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|
Krylatskoe |
Kutuzovsky |
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|
Davydkovo |
Kutuzovsky |
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|
Mozhaisky |
Kutuzovsky |
|||
|
Kutuzovsky |
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|
Leningradsky |
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|
Matveevskoe |
Kutuzovsky |
|||
|
Kutuzovsky |
||||
|
Volokolamsky |
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|
Tushino South |
Volokolamsky |
|||
|
Academic |
Leninist |
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|
Marina Grove |
Dmitrovsky |
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|
Troparevo |
Leninist |
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|
Northern Chertanovo |
Varshavsky |
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Sokolniki |
Shchelkovsky |
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Volokolamsky |
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Teply Stan |
Leninist |
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|
Leningradsky |
Source: company dataRRG
Table 5. Top 20: Promising retail real estate development Moscow clusters
|
Cluster |
Megacluster |
Population by 2019 |
Supply of retail space, sq. m / 1 thousand inhabitants |
|
|
Novogireevo |
Highway Enthusiasts |
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Ivanovskoe |
Highway Enthusiasts |
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|
Preobrazhensky |
Shchelkovsky |
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|
Printers |
Volgograd |
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|
Lyubertsy Fields |
Volgograd |
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|
Novo-Peredelkino |
Leninist |
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|
Izmailovsky |
Shchelkovsky |
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|
Zelenogradsky |
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|
Golyanovo |
Shchelkovsky |
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|
Kuzminki |
Volgograd |
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|
Volgograd |
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Northern Veshnyaki |
Highway Enthusiasts |
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|
Volgograd |
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|
Western Maryino |
Volgograd |
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|
Alekseevsky |
Yaroslavsky |
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|
Western Biryulevo |
Varshavsky |
|||
|
Zhulebino |
Volgograd |
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Tsaritsyno |
Kashirsky |
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|
Volzhsky |
Volgograd |
|||
|
Medvedkovo |
Yaroslavsky |
Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation of April 9, 2016 No. 291 “On approval of the Rules for establishing Russian Federation standards area shopping facilities and the methodology for calculating the standards for the minimum provision of the population with the area of \u200b\u200bretail facilities, as well as invalidating the Resolution of the Government of the Russian Federation of September 24, 2010 No. 754 "
In accordance with clause 2 of part 1 of article 5 Federal law "About the basics state regulation trading activity in the Russian Federation "The Government of the Russian Federation decides:
1. Approve the attached:
the standard for the minimum provision of the population with the area of \u200b\u200bretail facilities of local significance - according to;
standards for the minimum provision of the population with the area of \u200b\u200bnon-stationary shopping facilities - according to.
Appendix No. 1
to the calculation of standards
minimum security of the population
shopping area
Payment
standards for the minimum provision of the population with the area of \u200b\u200bstationary shopping facilities
1. The standard for the minimum provision of the population of the municipality with the area of \u200b\u200bstationary shopping facilities () is calculated by the formula:
The standard for the minimum provision of the population of the municipality with the area of \u200b\u200bstationary shopping facilities where the sale is carried out food products (sq. m per 1000 people);
The standard for the minimum provision of the population of the municipality with the area of \u200b\u200bstationary shopping facilities where the sale is carried out non-food products (sq. m per 1000 people).
2. The standard for the minimum provision of the population of the municipality with the area of \u200b\u200bstationary shopping facilities, where the sale of food products is carried out (), is calculated by the formula:
The basic indicator of the minimum provision of the population with the area of \u200b\u200bstationary shopping facilities where food products are sold, taken equal to 202 sq. m per 1000 people;
The coefficient of regional correction of the standard for the minimum provision of the population with the area of \u200b\u200bstationary trade facilities, where the sale of food products is carried out.
3. The standard for the minimum provision of the population of the municipality with the area of \u200b\u200bstationary shopping facilities, where the sale of non-food products is carried out (), is calculated by the formula:
The basic indicator of the minimum provision of the population with the area of \u200b\u200bstationary shopping facilities, where the sale of non-food products is carried out, is taken equal to 387 sq. m per 1000 people;
Coefficient of regional correction of the standard for the minimum provision of the population with the area of \u200b\u200bstationary shopping facilities, where the sale of non-food products is carried out.
4. The coefficient of regional correction of the standard for the minimum provision of the population with the area of \u200b\u200bstationary trade facilities, where the sale of food products is carried out (), is calculated by the formula:
t is the year preceding the year in which the standard for the minimum provision of the population with the area of \u200b\u200bstationary trade objects is recalculated;
Expenses of the population for the purchase of goods in the constituent entity of the Russian Federation in the year t (rubles) (according to the balances of cash income and expenses of the population, published by the statistical authorities);
Expenses of the population for the purchase of goods in the constituent entity of the Russian Federation in 2015 (rubles) (according to the balances of cash income and expenses of the population, published by the statistics authorities);
The index of the growth rate of consumer prices for goods in the constituent entity of the Russian Federation for the period from 2015 to year t (according to statistics bodies);
The volume of all food products sold to the population within the boundaries of the municipality (per capita) in the year t (rubles);
The volume of all food products sold to the population in the Russian Federation (per capita) in the year t (rubles);
The cost of a fixed set of consumer goods and services in the Russian Federation in December t (rubles) (according to statistics bodies);
The cost of a fixed set of consumer goods and services for a constituent entity of the Russian Federation, which includes a municipality, in December t (rubles) (according to statistics bodies);
Share retail markets and fairs in circulation retail a constituent entity of the Russian Federation, which includes a municipality, in year t (according to statistics bodies);
The share of retail markets and fairs in the retail trade turnover of the Russian Federation in year t (according to statistics bodies).
5. The coefficient of regional correction of the standard for the minimum provision of the population with the area of \u200b\u200bstationary shopping facilities, where the sale of non-food products is carried out (), is calculated by the formula:
The volume of all non-food products sold to the population within the boundaries of the municipality (per capita) in the year t (rubles);
The volume of all non-food products sold to the population in the Russian Federation (per capita) in the year t (rubles).
6. The volume of all food products sold to the population within the boundaries of the municipality (per capita) in the year t () is calculated by the formula:
,
The volume of all food products sold to the population within the boundaries of the municipality (in monetary terms) for the financial year t (rubles) (according to statistics bodies);
Population of the municipality in year t (people) (according to statistics bodies).
7. The volume of all food products sold to the population in the Russian Federation (per capita) in the year t () is calculated using the formula:
,
The volume of all food products sold to the population in the Russian Federation (in monetary terms) for the financial year t (rubles) (according to statistics bodies);
Population of the Russian Federation in year t (people) (according to statistics bodies).
8. The volume of all non-food products sold to the population within the boundaries of the municipality (per capita) in the year t () is calculated by the formula:
The share of food products, including beverages, and tobacco products in the structure of retail trade turnover in the constituent entity of the Russian Federation in year t (according to statistics bodies);
The share of non-food products in the structure of retail trade turnover in the constituent entity of the Russian Federation in year t (according to statistics bodies).
9. The volume of all non-food products sold to the population in the Russian Federation (per capita) in the year t () is calculated using the formula:
The share of food products, including beverages, and tobacco products in the structure of retail trade turnover in the Russian Federation in year t (according to statistics bodies);
The share of non-food products in the structure of retail trade turnover in the Russian Federation in year t (according to statistics bodies).
10. The standard for the minimum provision of the population of the constituent entity of the Russian Federation with the area of \u200b\u200bstationary trade objects () is calculated by the formula:
The standard for the minimum provision of the population of the constituent entity of the Russian Federation with the area of \u200b\u200bstationary trade facilities where food products are sold (square meters per 1000 people);
The standard for the minimum provision of the population of the constituent entity of the Russian Federation with the area of \u200b\u200bstationary trade facilities, where the sale of non-food products is carried out (sq. M per 1000 people).
11. The standard for the minimum provision of the population of the constituent entity of the Russian Federation with the area of \u200b\u200bstationary trade facilities, where the sale of food products is carried out (), is calculated by the formula:
,
where - average annual number resident population of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation in year t (people) (according to statistics bodies).
12. The standard for the minimum provision of the population of the constituent entity of the Russian Federation with the area of \u200b\u200bstationary trade facilities, where the sale of non-food products is carried out (), is calculated by the formula:
.
Appendix No. 2
to the calculation of standards
minimum security of the population
shopping area
Payment
the standard for the minimum provision of the population with the area of \u200b\u200bretail facilities of local importance
1. The standard for the minimum provision of the population of the municipality with the area of \u200b\u200bretail facilities of local importance () is calculated by the formula:
The area of \u200b\u200bland plots classified as residential and public and business zones located on the territory of urban settlements of the municipality (sq. Km);
Zone radius trade service for urban settlements, taken equal to 0.25 km;
The minimum number of retail facilities of local importance located within the trade service zone for urban settlements of the municipality (units);
The area of \u200b\u200bland plots classified as residential and public and business zones located on the territory of rural settlements of the municipality (sq. Km);
The radius of the trade service area for rural settlements, taken equal to 0.5 km;
The minimum number of retail facilities of local importance located within the trade service zone for rural settlements of the municipality (units).
2. The minimum number of retail facilities of local importance located within the trade service zone for urban (rural) settlements of the municipality (() is:
with the density of the population living in the territory of residential and public and business development of urban (rural) settlements of the municipality, up to 5000 people per sq. km - 2 retail facilities of local importance;
with the density of the population living in the territory of residential and public-business development of urban (rural) settlements of the municipality, from 5,000 to 10,000 people per sq. km - 4 retail facilities of local importance;
with the density of the population living in the territory of residential and public-business development of urban (rural) settlements of the municipality, from 10,000 to 15,000 people per sq. km - 6 retail facilities of local importance;
with a population density living in the territory of residential and public-business development of urban (rural) settlements of the municipality, more than 15,000 people per sq. km - 8 retail facilities of local importance.
3. The density of the population living in the territory of residential and public-business development of urban settlements of the municipality () is calculated by the formula:
where is the average annual resident population living in urban settlements of the municipality (people).
4. The density of the population living in the territory of residential and public-business development of rural settlements of the municipality () is calculated by the formula:
where is the average annual resident population living in rural settlements of the municipality (people).
5. In this document:
a) under shopping facilities local significance refers to shops and trade pavilions selling food and mixed goods with a retail area of \u200b\u200bup to 300 sq. m inclusive, except for shops and trade pavilions located in large shopping centersx (complexes);
b) large shopping centers (complexes) mean shopping centers (complexes) with a retail space:
more than 5000 sq. m - in municipalities with a population of more than 500,000 people and in intracity municipalities of cities of federal significance;
more than 3000 sq. m - in municipalities with a population of 100,000 to 500,000 people;
more than 1500 sq. m - in municipalities with a population of up to 100,000 people.
Appendix No. 3
to the calculation of standards
minimum security of the population
shopping area
Payment
standards for the minimum provision of the population with the area of \u200b\u200bnon-stationary shopping facilities
1. The standard for the minimum provision of the population of the constituent entity of the Russian Federation (municipality) with trade pavilions and kiosks for the sale of food products and agricultural products () is calculated by the formula:
,
The basic indicator of the minimum provision of the population with trade pavilions and kiosks for the sale of food products and agricultural products (the number of trade facilities per 10,000 people), taken equal to 9;
The standard for the minimum provision of the population of the constituent entity of the Russian Federation with the area of \u200b\u200bstationary trade objects (calculated according to the procedure for calculating the standards for the minimum provision of the population with the area of \u200b\u200btrade objects);
Actual provision of the population of the constituent entity of the Russian Federation with the area of \u200b\u200bstationary trade objects;
Regional correction coefficient set by the authorities state power subject of the Russian Federation, taking into account the fact that (for cities of federal significance).
2. The standard for the minimum provision of the population of the constituent entity of the Russian Federation (municipal formation) with trade pavilions and kiosks for the sale of products catering () is calculated by the formula:
,
where is the basic indicator of the minimum provision of the population with trade pavilions and kiosks for the sale of public catering products (the number of retail facilities per 1000 people), taken equal to 1.
3. The standard for the minimum provision of the population of the constituent entity of the Russian Federation (municipality) with trade pavilions and kiosks for the sale of printed materials () is calculated by the formula:
,
where is the basic indicator of the minimum provision of the population with trade pavilions and kiosks for the sale of printed materials (the number of retail outlets per 1000 people), which is taken equal to 1.7.
4. The standards for the minimum provision of the population with non-stationary trade facilities are not established for the regions of the Far North and areas equated to them.
Document overview
The Rules for the establishment by regions of standards for the minimum provision of the population with the area of \u200b\u200bretail facilities and the method for calculating such standards were re-approved.
Under the new rules, the standards are established for stationary retail facilities, retail facilities of local significance, non-stationary retail facilities (previously the standard was the same).
For stationary and non-stationary objects they are determined in relation to each region and its constituent parts municipal districts and urban districts, with the exception of federal cities, for which the standards are established as a whole.
For objects of local significance, the standards are determined in relation to each urban district, settlement, as well as in relation to an intracity municipal formation that is part of a city of federal significance.
The previous rules and methods were declared invalid.
10 November 2016Molli.Ru publishes material dedicated to the most saturated shopping centers in the cities of Russia.
Over the past five years russian market quality shopping centers replenished by more than 7 million square meters areas. More than a third of new construction in the past three years has been driven by the Moscow market. At the same time, the bulk of the new supply in 2017-2018 will be generated by growing regional markets.
Many large shopping center projects will be launched on regional markets by the end of 2016, and during next years record growth rates are projected, especially in cities with a population of more than 300 thousand inhabitants, which were not yet sufficiently saturated with quality properties during the first wave of development by developers regional centers.
Today Moscow ranks fourth in terms of the provision of quality retail space with an indicator of about 450 thousand square meters per 1000 inhabitants. This is the 10th indicator in Europe, although according to the total proposal, the Russian capital has long surpassed all European megacities - London 2.5 times, Berlin 5 times, Barcelona 7 times. There are 11 Russian cities in the top 20 of the most saturated shopping centers in Europe (with a population of over 1 million inhabitants).
At the same time, the provision in cities with a population of one million today is estimated at an average of 366 square meters per thousand inhabitants, and in cities with a population of less than a thousand people - at 261 square meters per thousand inhabitants.
Where do retail real estate developers direct their main investments and what russian cities remain the most in demand in recent years? Malls.Ru have identified the top 10 main directions.
Top 10 most popular cities for shopping center developers
The largest shopping center in the south of Russia is often not included in Russian and European ratings as a city with a population of less than 1 million inhabitants. At the same time, it is Krasnodar that for more than 6 years has held the title of the city with the most abundant shopping centers with an indicator of more than 950 square meters per thousand inhabitants - this is significantly higher than in Warsaw, the leading European millionaire. The selection of shopping centers in Krasnodar also remains one of the best in Russia - SBS Megamall, OZ Mall, Red Square, Gallery Krasnodar. The share of retail trade in the Krasnodar Territory of the total turnover in the Southern Federal District is estimated at 46%. According to expert forecasts, Krasnodar will remain the leader in terms of saturation retail space not less than 5-7 years more.
Samara
Over the past few years, thanks to new discoveries, Samara has become one of the three most developed largest Russian cities (over 1 million inhabitants). And after the opening of the new shopping center Good "Ok (GLA \u003d 115,000 sq. M.), Which will become the largest in the Volga region, Samara will secure the status of the most abundant retail space in the Russian million-plus city with 560 sq. M. Per 1000 inhabitants. Most of the total supply high-quality retail real estate in the city is under the control of the largest developer in the region. The portfolio of Viktor & Co includes the shopping centers Moskovsky, Kosmoport, Megasiti and the new Good Ok.Ekaterinburg
The capital of the Urals and the fourth largest city in Russia, Yekaterinburg was especially actively developed with shopping centers in 2009 and 2012. But in the past few years, the dynamics of development has slowed down, and the market itself has reached the stage of primary saturation. As a result, Yekaterinburg again yielded to Samara the first line of the cities with the richest shopping centers. District-type shopping centers have recently become popular with local developers. Analysts point to good prospects for discounter shopping centers. In the first half of the year, the Akademichesky shopping and entertainment center (GLA - 30,000 sq. M.) Was opened in Yekaterinburg, two more openings are planned by the end of the year, and at the beginning of 2017 the fifth phase of the Greenwich shopping center will be launched.Nizhny Novgorod
Thanks to the active opening of new shopping centers in 2015, Nizhny Novgorod has risen to the top three of the most secured retail space in the million. The total increase in supply for 2015-2016 in the city amounted to 26.2%. To date, analysts identify 29 high-quality facilities with a total area of \u200b\u200b1.19 million square meters GBA and 785 thousand square meters GLA. The largest objects are "Mega", "Sky", "Fantastic", "Rio". Nizhny Novgorod developers are developing shopping complexes in the lifestyle and edutainment format, relying on tenants of non-standard formats, which are not widely represented in the city.
One of the top 20 largest cities in Russia, Saratov retains the status of the second most saturated city with retail space with a population of less than 1 million inhabitants, although three years ago there was a shortage of high-quality shopping centers in the city. In the fall of 2015, the opening of the Tau Gallery shopping center with an area of \u200b\u200b102,000 sq. M GBA took place. Another large shopping mall, Happy Mall, is preparing to commission the fourth stage and is designing the fifth, which will be launched in 2018. The largest retail facilities in Saratov also include the Moy Noviy and Triumph Mall shopping malls.
Rostov-on-Don
The largest in the south of Russia and the ninth largest population in the country, Rostov-on-Don has become one of the points of attraction federal networks and construction of large shopping centers at the first stage of development of retail real estate in the regions - in 2004-2009. Today, more than 140 international brands operate in the city, and the total supply of high-quality retail space exceeds 400 thousand square meters. The largest malls in Rostov-on-Don are Gorizont, Mega, Zolotoy Babylon, Rio and Megamag, which is preparing to open the second stage. In recent years, against the background of market saturation, the interest of developers began to shift towards the region.St. Petersburg
In 2016, for the first time in the past two years, a large shopping and entertainment center (Okhta Mall - 78,000 sq. M) was opened in St. Petersburg. Today, the city has 58 high-quality shopping centers with a total area of \u200b\u200b2.25 million square meters (provision - 430 square meters per 1000 residents). The market situation is stabilizing after several quarters that are difficult for shopping centers in a row. Many retail chains consider St. Petersburg as a promising direction for development in 2017. At the same time, the opening of new shopping centers on next year not planned. "Zero" commissioning of new shopping centers in the city will be marked for the first time since 2003, since the inception of the market of high-quality shopping malls.Moscow
2016 will be the best year in the last 10 years in terms of the number of new retail space commissioned in the Moscow region. Analysts expect the addition of a total of 638,000 sq.m GLA. Since the beginning of the year, Oceania, Kosino-Park, Good!, Riga Mall, Solntsevo Park and the 2nd stage of Metropolis have already opened. Another 6 shopping malls will receive their first buyers by the end of the year. In the total volume of all commissioned shopping centers in Russia, Moscow will have 37% in 2016! The high rates of commissioning will continue until the end of 2018. Today Moscow is the leader in terms of the total volume of retail space in Europe with an indicator of 5.5 million square meters. Analysts note an improvement in consumer demand in Moscow. In the first half of 2016, the attendance of the shopping center increased by 10%. New international brands are entering the market - since the beginning of the year, 26 new brands have been marked in Russia, 23 of which have chosen Moscow for their debut.
Voronezh
Being largest city Chernozem region, with a population of about 1 million inhabitants, Voronezh has long been one of the most attractive cities for the construction of large shopping centers. The bulk of construction in the city took place in 2009-2010, when several regional shopping centers were opened at once - City Park Grad (GLA - 141,000 sq.m), Chizhova Gallery (47,000 sq.m), Maksimir (62,000 sq. M.), "Arena" (47,100 sq. M.). Today, regional properties account for 39% of the total supply of high-quality retail real estate in the city. As of 2016, 18 modern shopping centers with a total area of \u200b\u200babout 820,000 sq. M GBA and 525,000 sq. M. GLA were opened in Voronezh. New projects include the 3rd stage of the Chizhov Gallery and the Mayskiy shopping and entertainment center. Besides, in Voronezh region construction of the Mega shopping and entertainment center is expected.Tyumen
The unofficial capital of the oil and gas region, Tyumen is traditionally one of the cities most demanded by developers for shopping centers with a population of more than 500 thousand inhabitants. According to data for 2016, the total supply is 365,000 sq. M, but by 2018 it is expected to grow to 480,000 sq. M. In particular, in December 2016, one of the largest shopping malls in the city, Tyumen City Mall (GLA - 53,000 sq.m) will open. By the way, the share of regional and super-regional facilities in Tyumen accounts for 55% of all shopping centers. The largest mall in the region is the Kristall shopping and entertainment center. At the same time, experts note that the market has almost reached saturation. The volume of commissioning of new shopping centers in 2017 will be the minimum over the past five years.In preparing the material, data from the following companies were used: Knight Frank, JLL, Magazine Stores, ekbpromo, IDEM, Cushman & Wakefield.
The experts of the MAGAZIN MAGAZINOV company assessed the situation in all segments of the Moscow shopping center market, and also outlined key trends and forecasts in the retail real estate market.
New offer in a shopping center in Moscow
In the second half of 2016, one of the largest-scale commissioning of retail space in the last ten years is expected - 466,000 sq. m. If in the first half of the year in Moscow was opened only one shopping center - "Riviera" (100,000 sq. m.), then in the second half is expected to commission 12 new shopping centers. In terms of the volume of commissioned retail space, this is comparable only to 2014, when 415,000 sq. M. Were commissioned. m. of retail space. The dynamics of the opening of new shopping centers in Moscow reflects the cyclical nature of the retail real estate market: the last two cycles - from 2008 to 2012, as well as from 2013 to 2016.
Observations show that the maximum volume of new supply falls on the years of economic instability. During the period of economic growth, many new projects are launched, but due to the long investment phase, the timing of opening new shopping centers often falls on periods of economic downturn. Now we can observe the described situation.
In 2017-2018, three times less retail space will be launched on the market than in 2015-2016. The volume of new supply will be comparable to the level of 2010-2011.
It should be noted that if over the past two years the new offer was formed mainly due to several large objects (Aviapark and Vegas Crocus City in 2014, Columbus in 2015), then in 2016 it is planned to open many shopping centers of a smaller format ... There will be almost the same number of them as were introduced over the past 2 years. The GLA of the largest of them will be 80,000 sq. M. m, which is about 3 times less than the area of \u200b\u200b"Aviapark".
It is expected that the supply of new shopping centers will exceed demand at the beginning of 2017. The market will be under pressure from a significant number of vacancies.
By the end of 2016, the vacancy rate may reach the highest level in the last 7 years.
Now there is the lowest vacancy rate (6.5%) in the last 2.5 years. However, this phenomenon is temporary: according to forecasts, in the future the vacancy rate may increase by 3.5% and reach the level of 2015 (10%).
The reason is that in 2016 a record number of retail space will be commissioned. For comparison, the average vacancy rate for Moscow shopping centers introduced in 2015 amounted to 19% in the first half of 2015.
According to the results of the first half of the year, Moscow ranks fourth in terms of the provision of retail space per capita (437 sq. M / thousand inhabitants).
However, if all the declared objects are put into operation on time, the alignment of forces will change by the end of the year. Krasnodar will remain in the first place, Samara will come in second due to the commissioning of the Good'Ok shopping center with a GLA of 115,000 sq. m (536 sq.m / thousand inhabitants). This will be followed by Yekaterinburg (499 sq.m / thousand inhabitants) and Moscow (475 sq.m / thousand inhabitants), which will retain its 4th place in the ranking.
Compared to the end of 2015, most of the tenants resumed their development. If at the beginning of the year many chains did not have clear plans for development and retailers continued to optimize, then closer to the middle of the year, many players began to select objects and negotiate. This is due to the positive dynamics of shopping center attendance and signs of stabilization of the macroeconomic situation.
Tenants for a long time took a wait-and-see attitude, mainly considering offers in existing shopping centers. However, in connection with the reduction in supply in the existing shopping centers and the corresponding increase in the expectations of lessors, an increasing number of chains are ready to consider projects under construction. Shopping centers under construction are also becoming attractive because lessors are ready to offer more comfortable conditions in them, for example, CAP for the first year of lease. Also, in recent years, a payment scheme has become increasingly common, in which the rate for the second lease year is fixed according to the average turnover for the first one.
Shopping centers in Moscow districts
The largest number of objects will be commissioned in those districts of Moscow, which already make up a fairly high share in the total supply of the city. 4 more shopping centers will be opened in the Southern Administrative District, whose share, taking into account the commissioning, will amount to 19% in the total supply.
2 shopping centers will open in the CAO (14%) and 4 shopping centers in the CJSC (10%). These three districts will account for about 70% of the total supply in Moscow.
Along with this, VAO will remain the lowest-income district with retail space: not a single retail facility will open there until the end of the year.
Distribution of Moscow districts to the share of retail space provision
| County name | Supply of retail space (sq.m / thousand inhabitants) |
The district's share of the total supply of the shopping center in Moscow in 2016 |
|
|
2015 year |
2016 year |
||
| South Administrative District | 557 | 647 | 19% |
| SAO | 655 | 727 | 14% |
| North-East Administrative District | 500 | 497 | 12% |
| Company | 359 | 454 | 10% |
| SEAD | 420 | 415 | 10% |
| SZAO | 488 | 564 | 9% |
| CAD | 684 | 677 | 9% |
| South-West Administrative District | 296 | 294 | 7% |
| TiNAO | 624 | 754 | 4% |
| HLW | 110 | 136 | 4% |
| ZelAO | 516 | 504 | 2% |
Commercial terms for lease of retail space in Moscow shopping centers
In most properties, rates were not indexed, so they remained at the 2015 level. It is worth noting that in a number of shopping centers rotation of tenants was carried out, as a result of which landlords sought to find more solvent retailers, to replace brands with unique or more popular ones.
Analyzing the average level of rental rates, it should be noted that until 2014 the rent was calculated, as a rule, on the basis of a fixed rate, and since 2015 - as a percentage of the turnover.
Rental rates * in rubles in shopping centers opened before 2014
| Tenant profile / type | Average area (sq.m) |
Rental rates for the first half of 2016 (thousand rubles) |
|
|
IROOT TENANTS |
Hypermarket FMCG | > 8000 | 8-12 |
| 4000-8000 | 10-15 | ||
| DIY hypermarket | > 10000 | 8-12 | |
| Supermarket FMCG | 1000-4000 | 19-35 | |
| BTiE | 1200-2200 | 7-11 | |
| Sporting goods | 4000-6000 | 4-5 | |
| 1200-2200 | 6-9 | ||
| Goods for kids | 1000-2000 | 9-13 | |
| clothing | 1500-3000 | 7-12 | |
| Multiplex cinema | 3000-5000 | 7-11 | |
| Shopping gallery tenant | 700-1500 | 10-13 | |
| 500-700 | 12-17 | ||
| 250-500 | 15-30 | ||
| 100-250 | 30-50 | ||
| 50-100 | 55-80 | ||
| < 50 | 100-150 | ||
| A restaurant | 300-600 | 18-25 | |
| coffee house | 80-170 | 40-60 | |
| Food court | 50-100 | 60-100 | |
* The table shows the ranges of average rental rates for premises in modern-level shopping centers in Moscow (commissioned before 2014), per sq. m per year, excluding VAT and operating payments, as of the end of June 2016
Commercial terms for shopping centers commissioned since 2015
| Tenant profile / type | Average square (sq.m) |
Middle CAP range * in the IV quarter. 2015 g. |
Middle CAP range * in the first half of the year 2016 Nov. |
|
| ANCHOR TENANTS | Hypermarket FMCG | > 8000 | 1,8-4% | 1,8-4% |
| Hypermarket FMCG (city format) | 4000-8000 | 1,8-4% | 1,8-4% | |
| DIY hypermarket | > 10000 | 2-4% | 2-4% | |
| Supermarket FMCG | 1000-4000 | 5-8% | 5-8% | |
| BTiE | 1200-2200 | 3-5% | 4-6% | |
| Sporting goods | 4000-6000 | 8-10% | 4-8% | |
| 1200-2200 | 7-10% | 7-10% | ||
| Goods for kids | 1000-2000 | 8-13% | 8-13% | |
| clothing | 1500-3000 | 8-13% | 8-13% | |
| Multiplex cinema | 3000-5000 | 8-13% | 8-13% | |
| Shopping gallery tenant | 700-1500 | 9-14% | 9-14% | |
| 500-700 | 10-15% | 10-15% | ||
| 250-500 | 12-15% | 12-15% | ||
| 100-250 | 10-20% | 10-20% | ||
| 50-100 | 15-25% | 15-25% | ||
| A restaurant | < 50 | 10-15% | 10-15% | |
| coffee house | 300-600 | 18-25% | 18-25% | |
| Food court | 80-170 | 10-18% | 10-18% | |
* CAP - the maximum share of rental payments in the total turnover of the tenant, including operating costs, excluding utility bills.
Changes in the economic situation inevitably led to a decrease in the business margins of large network players in the sporting goods market. In this regard, one can observe a decrease in SAR in this segment from 8-10% to 4-8%.
As for the retailers of the segment “ appliances and electronics ”, then the format is 4000-6000 sq. m, where CAP was traditionally lower, almost completely left the market. Instead, only the format of 1200-2200 sq. m, where the CAP is 4-6%.
According to Alexandra Romashina, a leading consultant at the STORE OF STORES, retailers are increasingly opening stores in shopping centers on terms that oblige developers to take on the costs of finishing the premises, or offer terms related to the opening of brands through a franchise.
Anchor tenants such as cinemas and entertainment centers, significantly increased the requirements for the condition of the transferred premises and their finishing, which also led to an increase in construction costs for developers. Shopping center owners often have to meet retailers halfway in order to maintain the concept of the facility, increase the occupancy of the shopping center and ensure acceptable traffic.
Some fashion retailers tend to rent larger premises.
This group of tenants often succeeds in negotiating attractive commercial terms with the owners, such as a percentage of turnover without a flat rate, finishing by landlords, etc. Thus, such international brands as H&M, brands of the Inditex group, as well as a number of federal brands - Befree, Familia, have already expanded their format.
Per last year a number of stores were opened, which changed the vector of development towards large shopping centers. So, quite a lot of new stores have appeared in the Aviapark shopping center and the Columbus shopping center, such as Kalyaev Factory, Porta 9, Claustrafobia, Ogogo Obobovochka, etc. In addition, there is an influx of individual entrepreneurs to large shopping centers that were previously inaccessible to them due to high rates and high requirements from the landlord.
Shopping center commissioning forecast by the end of 2016
By the end of 2016, 12 objects with a total GLA of 466,000 sq. m.
Shopping centers planned to open in the Moscow region by the end of 2016
|
name of the property |
The address |
GBA (sqm) |
GLA (sqm) |
Developer |
|
Moscow |
||||
| Oceania (Kutuzovsky Gallery) | Kutuzovsky prospect, 57 | 137 000 | 60 000 | TPN Real Estate |
| Butovo Mall | n. Voskresenskoe, der. Yazovo | 143 000 | 54 400 | MD Group |
| Okay! | Horoshevskoe sh., 33/1 | 114 000 | 50 000 | TPN Real Estate |
| Kosino Park | Svyatoozerskaya st., 5 | 79 510 | 39 000 | GK TEN |
| Metropolis (II stage) |
Leningradskoe highway, ow. eighteen | 65 800 | 38 000 | Capital Partners |
| Multifunctional complex on Kievskaya | Kievskaya st., 2 | 30 000 | 20 000 | PATERO Development |
| Auchan Proletarsky | Proletarsky Ave., 30, bldg. 15 | 23 667 | 15 500 | Immochan |
| Selectika | Varshavskoe highway, vl. 148 | 42 500 | 7 000 | GC Elvikom |
|
Moscow region |
||||
| Riga Mall | Novorizhskoe highway, 5 km from MKAD | 142 000 | 80 000 | Riga Mall |
| Mozhaisky yard | p. Novoivanovskoe, Zapadnaya st., p. 100 | 65 000 | 45 500 | PATERO Development |
| Vidnoe Park | M-4 "Don", 3 km from MKAD | 105 000 | 45 000 | Trinity Russian Retail |
| Solntsevo-park | Borovskoe sh. | 17 000 | 11 600 | GC Morton |
Thus, the following trends can be distinguished on the Moscow shopping center market:
- Large-scale commissioning of facilities is expected by the end of the year. About 70% of the new supply falls on the leading districts in terms of the supply of retail space.
- After the vacancy rate dropped to 6.5% in the first half of the year, it is expected to grow to 10% by the beginning of 2017.
- Rental rates and CAP have not changed over the past six months, with the exception of the sporting goods and household appliances segments.
- By the end of the year, Moscow will retain its current 4th place in terms of supply of retail space among Russian cities. The first place will be taken by Krasnodar, the second - Samara, and the third - Yekaterinburg.
- The Eastern District of Moscow is still the most unsaturated part of the city with retail properties and has great potential for the implementation of development projects.
- According to forecasts, the new offer of the shopping center will put pressure on the market and prevent rental rates from rising. In some segments, it will create more profitable terms lease.
The review was prepared by the specialists of the SHOP STORE
Yekaterinburg took first place in the rating of regional cities in terms of provision of modern retail space. According to the new rating of the "Magazin Magazinov" company, at the end of 2013. the capital of the Urals has displaced Voronezh from the leading positions, and Ufa has risen in the rating by five points. As for the rest, the alignment of forces in relation to the previous published rating has practically not changed.
"The growth of the position of Yekaterinburg in the rating was predictable and occurred due to the opening of the reconstructed shopping center" Ekaterininsky "(now the shopping center" Globus "), as well as the second stage of the shopping center" Raduga Park ". Ufa rose in the rating due to the opening of the shopping and entertainment center" Planeta " notes the head of the research and consulting department of the Magazin Magazinov company Andrei Vasyutkin.
| Town | Provision of the population with space in modern-level shopping centers, sq. m per 1000 inhabitants | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ekaterinburg | 383 |
| 2 | Voronezh | 368 |
| 3 | Samara | 348 |
| 4 | Rostov-on-Don | 330 |
| 5 | Nizhny Novgorod | 318 |
| 6 | Volgograd | 277 |
| 7 | Ufa | 276 |
| 8 | Kazan | 264 |
| 9 | Chelyabinsk | 234 |
| 10 | Novosibirsk | 196 |
| 11 | Krasnoyarsk | 200 |
| 12 | Permian | 116 |
| 13 | Omsk | 107 |
In accordance with the announced plans of developers, in the regions of Russia (with the exception of Moscow) for 2014. 43 shopping centers with a total leasable area of \u200b\u200bslightly more than 1.7 million sq. m are planned to be commissioned. m is almost 1.5 times more than the area of \u200b\u200bhigh-quality shopping centers commissioned in 2013.
According to the estimates of the Magazin Magazinov company, at the end of 2013. the total volume of the retail real estate market in Russia amounted to 14.8 million square meters. m of gross leasable area (GLA) in modern shopping centers. In relative terms, the annual growth was 10%, and this is the lowest level of commissioning of quality retail space since 2008. In general, the volume of the retail real estate market in absolute terms has increased 1.9 times since 2008.
Total in 2013. in Russia (excluding the capital region), 37 high-quality shopping centers with a total area of \u200b\u200b1.2 million square meters were opened. m GLA.
Three regional cities - leaders in the opening of shopping centers in 2013. includes St. Petersburg, Tyumen and Yekaterinburg.
In the research "Shop of Stores" it is noted that slightly less than half (47%) of all planned to be commissioned in 2014. the volume of space also falls on the group of cities with a population of less than 1 million people. The continuing shift in the vector of activity of developers towards smaller cities is associated with the gradual saturation of the retail real estate markets of million-plus cities and capitals.
Moscow and St. Petersburg
Share distribution of rented space in modern shopping centers by city groups (Photo: Shop Store)
It should be noted that Moscow and St. Petersburg are not included in the overall rating of million-plus cities. The compilers of the rating explain this by the fact that the population in Russian capitals differs too much from other cities, which does not allow for an objective comparison.
If we talk about the capital, then, according to the Blackwood company, the figure at the end of the year is 343 sq. M. m / 1000 inhabitants. In St. Petersburg, it grew to 422 sq. m / 1000 inhabitants.
According to the international consulting company Knight Frank, in total for commissioning in 2014. in the Moscow region, 23 shopping centers with a total area of \u200b\u200b2.04 million square meters are announced. m, leasable (GLA) - 1.02 million sq. m. More than 30 objects are at the design stage.
However, according to CBRE estimates, not all projects will be commissioned on time, and the volume of new supply at the end of 2014. could be about 600 thousand square meters. m.
According to Knight Frank, new properties are concentrated mainly in the south of the capital. Thus, the Southern Administrative District (the most densely populated district of Moscow) strengthened its leading position in terms of supply volume and entered the top three districts with the highest quality retail space. Leadership in this indicator due to the low population is still held by the Central Administrative District.
The study "Shop of Stores" notes that at the end of 2013. Moscow remains the leader in terms of the total supply of space in the shopping center (28% of the total Russian supply). At the end of the year, the total supply in all 13 million-plus cities came close to the level of Moscow and amounted to 27%. Most of the total supply falls on a cluster of cities with a population of less than 1 million people.