Modeling the trend in the volume of paid travel services. Analysis of the volume of sales of tourist and excursion services Volume of paid tourist services
The main goal the functioning of the tourist market is to obtain maximum profit by attracting more and more tourists. All the efforts of travel agencies, travel agents, as well as other employees directly or indirectly related to the production of tourist products, the provision of tour services, are interested in promoting Russian resort areas, attracting tourists to famous places in order to benefit from this. The quantification of the final level of consumption in tourism is defined as the cost of tourism products (goods and services) used to directly meet the needs of a tourist or excursionist.
This indicator is one of the key in the analysis of the functioning of the tourism industry, it reflects the standard of living of foreign tourists, is an indirect indicator of the attractiveness of the region for tourists and reflects the development of the market in the region. Therefore, the extrapolation of this indicator is necessary for the complexity of the analysis of the tourist services market in order to adjust various measures and programs aimed at the development of tourism. That is why it was chosen as the main indicator for modeling.
In order to proceed to modeling, it is necessary to analyze the original time series for the trend and seasonality. Figure 3 shows that there is a clear increasing trend in the dynamics of the series. Secondly, the periodicity over the entire interval is approximately the same, therefore, we can assume the presence of seasonality in this time series. Thirdly, the fluctuation amplitude is approximately the same throughout the period. So this time series can be called additive rather than multiplicative.
It is also possible to confirm this using various tests and criteria. According to the ACF graph (Appendix 2), we can conclude that there is a trend component: since the correlations at the first lags are close to 1 and then decrease monotonically, in addition to this, not all autocorrelation values \u200b\u200bfell into the acceptable gray area - the area where the values \u200b\u200bare insignificant - therefore, the data does not have the properties of white noise (stationarity, randomness).
The PACF diagram (Appendix 2) also confirms the absence of signs of white noise - too many values \u200b\u200bare "outliers" - go beyond the gray area of \u200b\u200bthe acceptable value. The presence of seasonality is evidenced by the fact that each 12 lag has higher correlation values \u200b\u200bthan the rest, even though the indicator is decreasing.
On the periodogram graph (Appendix 2), you can notice several features that are characteristic of a time series that has a trend component. First, at 0 lag, a sharp upward jump is noticeable. Secondly, after the jump, the values \u200b\u200bbegin to decrease. From the periodogram, you can also calculate the frequency of the series, which is equal to the reciprocal frequency, and is 12.04, which is rounded up to 12 months.
Analytically, the assumption of a trend is tested using a nonparametric randomness test (Wald-Wolfowitz test). The purpose of this test is to determine the presence of a systematic component in a time series. According to the test results, at any level of significance, the hypothesis about the randomness of the time series of the volume of paid tourist services is rejected (observed value \u003d -7.51; critical value (5%) \u003d 1.96), so it can be argued that this series contains a trend ( systematic) component.
To build some time series models it is required that they satisfy the stationarity conditions. A stationary time series is a series in which the mean and variance are constant over the entire time interval. To check the stationarity of the time series of the volume of paid tourist services, the Dickey - Fuller test (Appendix 7) was used, the test values \u200b\u200bof which are illustrated in Table 2.
Table 2 Results of the extended Dickey - Fuller test for checking the stationarity of a number of tourist services in Russia, 2005-2015
It follows from the table that when checking the initial series, the null hypothesis of the nonstationarity of the series is not rejected (the observed value is less than the critical in absolute value). When taking the first difference, the situation changes: the null hypothesis is rejected, so that the initial time series has an integration order of 1, that is, it becomes stationary after taking the first difference.
travel agents for the implementation of a package tour to the consumer;
tourist industry facilities paid as part of a package tour.
62. The volume of paid tourist services includes services rendered to tourists and one-day visitors by objects of the tourism industry that are residents of the Russian economy.
63. Information on the volume of tourist services is provided by travel agents, as well as tour operators who directly sell package tours to consumers.
If a travel agent implements tours formed by a tour operator registered in another entity Russian Federation, then the travel agent must provide a report on the cost of tours sold to the population at the place of his activity.
64. Travel companies providing services in the field domestic tourism, include in the volume of paid tourist services the full cost of the package tour sold directly to the consumer, taking into account the services of third-party organizations included in it - objects of the tourism industry. In this case, the objects of the tourism industry do not show the specified volumes of services provided to tourists in their report. The objects of the tourism industry include collective accommodation facilities, transport organizations, cultural institutions, sports facilities and other objects of interest to tourists and one-day visitors.
65. Tour operators providing services in the field of outbound tourism must take into account in the volume of paid tourist services the cost of services paid by Russian citizens (residents) or enterprises for travel of their employees and their family members abroad, minus the amounts transferred to foreign partners (non-residents) to payment for that part of the services that will be provided outside the Russian Federation (and in the case of transport services provided to a tourist by a non-resident, also within the territory of Russia).
If the travel agent sells a tour package for foreign countries on the basis of an agreement with a tour operator and does not have information about what part of the cost of the tour is related to the services provided to tourists by foreign partners, it is allowed to determine its share on a calculated basis in consultation with the tour operator.
Objects of excursion interest (museums, exhibition halls, galleries, zoos and other similar organizations) are accountable for the volume of excursion services, reflecting them in the "Travel services" line, only if these services were provided to visitors without the participation of excursion bureaus, travel agencies, etc. .P. These volumes are taken into account in the amount paid by visitors for the excursion, excluding the cost of entrance tickets, which should be reflected in the line "Services of cultural institutions". If the accounting policy applied in the organization does not allow keeping separate records of the cost of entrance tickets and the cost of excursion services, then the entire amount of fees from visitors and excursionists is reflected in the line "Services of cultural institutions".
The significantly expanded openness of the Russian economy has led to a significant tightening of the requirements for the competitiveness of its industries, for the quality level of enterprise management. All this is also true for tourism enterprises. For successful functioning in the market, a travel company, as well as enterprises of other industries, must first of all comprehensively assess its financial and economic condition, that is, to analyze its economic activity. This analysis will allow you to trace the trends of economic development of the enterprise, scientifically substantiate plans and management decisions, as well as organize control over their implementation. In addition, the analysis of the financial and economic activities of the enterprise involves the assessment of the achieved results of the enterprise, the search, measurement and substantiation of the value of economic reserves for increasing production efficiency, as well as the development of measures for their use.
In the course of the analysis of the economic activity of UPS & E, the enterprise will be assessed in the following areas: analysis of the volume of sales of enterprise services, analysis of the use labor resources enterprises, cost analysis of the firm, as well as analysis of the profit and profitability of UPS services and sales.
The purpose of this analysis is to find ways to increase the volume of sales of services, improve their quality and growth reserves.
The tasks of analyzing the implementation of services are:
analysis of the structure and nomenclature of works, services;
analysis of seasonal fluctuations in the volume of sales of services provided;
analysis of the structure and dynamics of UPS services for receiving.
Table 1 - Dynamics of the volume of sales of UPS & E services
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Service type |
Sales volume of services, thousand rubles |
Abs. Off, thousand rubles |
Growth rate, percent |
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Travel services in total: |
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Including: |
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Reception of Russian tourists |
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Reception of foreign tourists |
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Sending |
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Excursion services in total: |
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Including: |
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Russian tourists |
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Foreign tourists |
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Total services |
Based on Table 1, it can be concluded that the growth rate of services provided has increased. The reasons for this increase appear to be the crisis of the 1990s. During this period, the demand for tourist services was almost completely absent; at the same time, government support stopped, i.e. earlier, the population was provided with free trips. Thus, in the period from 1999 to 2000 there was a decline in the volume of tourism services provided. In connection with the crisis state of the economy, the population did not have the means to travel. Over time, the situation in the country stabilized, incomes of the population began to increase, and by 2006, tourist services began to be in demand. This was the reason for such an increase in the volume of services provided in the bureau.
Also, a positive trend is observed in the change in the volume of excursion services for Russian and foreign tourists. According to the "Profit and Loss Statement for 2006" UPS & E, for ease of accounting, distinguishes in its activities such types of services as tourist and excursion services. The largest share in the structure of UPS & E services is occupied by tourist services (76.0% in 2005 and 75.5% in 2006)
On the basis of the financial statements of UPS & E, we will trace the intra-annual changes in the volume of services sold. Table 2 presents data on the volume of sales of tourist and excursion services of the company quarterly for 2005-2006.
Table 2 - Quarterly volume of sales of UPS & E services for 2005 - 2006, thousand rubles
Table 2 shows that the largest volume of services rendered falls on the second quarter of 2006 - 592.3 thousand rubles, both in general and for individual types: tourist services - 447.2 thousand rubles, excursion services - 145, 1 thousand rubles And the smallest - in the fourth quarter of 2005 and amounted to 36.2 thousand rubles in the total volume of services provided. In terms of tourist and excursion services, the least number of services was provided in the first quarter of 2006.
If we consider separately by year, then in 2005 the largest volume of sales was in the third quarter and amounted to 134.6 thousand rubles. the whole enterprise. The same trend is observed for certain types of services: tourist and excursion services, respectively. In 2006, the largest increase was also observed in the second quarter.
Thus, having analyzed the intra-annual changes in the indicator of the volume of sales of tourist and excursion services, we can draw a conclusion about the seasonal nature of the services provided. This is evidenced by the increase in this indicator in the second and third quarters and its decrease in the first quarter, and a slight decrease in the fourth.
In accordance with Figure 2, in 2006 the maximum increase in the analyzed indicator is observed in the second quarter.
The clearly pronounced seasonal nature of the volume of sold UPS services can be due to many factors (season of the year, vacation period, holidays, etc.).
Seasonality is understood as a stable regularity of the intra-annual dynamics of this or that phenomenon, which manifests itself in intra-annual increases or decreases in the levels of this or that indicator over a number of years.
Based on the analysis of the seasonality of the volume of services sold, the main tourist season for UPS and E, when the highest values \u200b\u200bof such indicators as the volume of services sold and the seasonality coefficient are observed, are the second and third quarters.
Next, we will analyze the activities of the IBPiE in receiving tourists over the past two years (2005 - 2006). So, based on the data available on UPS & E, it is known that the total number of tourists who contacted the company in the previous year was 845 people. Of which 254 are foreign tourists, 591 are Russian.
According to the table, we can conclude that there was a significant increase in the number of tourists received in 2006, both foreign and Russian. This explains the significant increase in the volume of tourist and excursion services provided.
Table 3 - Dynamics of tourist reception for 2005 - 2006
According to table 3, the following changes can be traced in the activities of the company for receiving tourists over the two previous years of UPS & E operation. In general, over the past two years, the reception of tourists by the IES has increased by 85.21%, or 720 people more than in 2005 turned to tourist services for admission to the organization in 2006. Moreover, a significant increase in the number of Russian tourists arriving in our region should be noted.
There has also been an increase in the number of foreign tourists arriving. Which is a positive development in tourism. Thus, the largest increase is observed in the reception of foreign tourists compared to the increase in the arrival of Russian tourists. This is also a positive trend, since the arrival of foreign tourists increases the inflow of capital into the country, which has a positive effect on the economy.
It should be noted that according to the IBPE data, the average duration of stay in the region for foreign tourists is 3 days, for Russian tourists - 6 days. Thus, it can be determined that the average length of stay of the total number of tourists in the region is 5 days.
website - “In 2017, the volume of paid tourist services is estimated to be at least 661.0 million rubles. The number of citizens of the Russian Federation accommodated in collective accommodation facilities will be estimated at 196.0 thousand people, foreign citizens - 6.1 thousand people, ”- sums up the activities of the Ministry of Entrepreneurship and Tourism Development of Yakutia.
According to preliminary data for the period from January to October 2017, the volume of paid tourist services provided, taking into account small businesses, amounted to 503.1 million rubles, which is 12% more in current prices compared to the same period last year.
In the structure of the volume of paid services, tourist services account for 0.8%. Per capita the volume of paid tourist services amounted to 521.3 rubles, which in turn is 18 rubles higher than the indicator of the previous year.
In January-October 2017, the volume of hotel services provided, taking into account small businesses, amounted to 826.5 million rubles, which in current prices compared to the same period last year showed an increase in the volume of services provided by 8%. This increase reflects the quantitative (number of placed people) and qualitative (cost of services) growth in the services provided.
On a per capita basis, the volume of hotel services provided amounted to 856.4 rubles per capita. In the structure of the volume of paid services, hotel services make up 1.2%, the ministry cites statistics, according to the press service of the Head and Government of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia).
Tourist service is a set of targeted actions in the service sector that are focused on ensuring and meeting the needs of a tourist or excursionist, meeting the goals of tourism, the nature and focus of tourist services, tours, tourist products, not contradicting the universal principles of morality and good order.
Tourist service is the result of the activities of an organization (tourist enterprise) or individual entrepreneur to meet the relevant needs of tourists in the organization and implementation of the tour and its individual components. The work of a travel company may consist in organizing both the entire trip and certain types services.
Like any other service, a tourist service is characterized by the following properties: intangibility, inseparability from the source and object of the service, inconsistent quality, non-persistence, etc.
Intangibility is manifested in the fact that a tourist service cannot be tasted, to the touch, it cannot be seen and heard until the moment of its immediate provision. Before the tourist arrives at the place of rest, he has only a description of the route and accompanying documents for its implementation. He receives rest and the impression from him only at the moment of being at a tourist facility and in the process of interaction with the environment... The travel agent cannot showcase his "product" during the sale, which makes his work difficult.
To reduce the uncertainty generated by the intangibility of tourist services, the client, before applying for them, looks for something tangible, at least to some extent indicating the quality of these services. A travel agent in this situation needs to visually illustrate the beauty of resorts and places of recreation and tourism. Viewing colorful booklets and video materials on which you can see the "product" and make sure of the reality of their quality is most effective for the consumer.
Inseparability from the source and object of the service is manifested in the fact that, firstly, the provision of a tourist service requires, as a rule, the presence of the one who provides it, or the one to whom it is provided. Secondly, the provision of tourist services is always tied to the place of travel, i.e. to a specific geographic area, territory. Thirdly, consumers act as a part of the service being sold, creating a climate, an atmosphere for using the service. For example, the presence of a noisy young company in a quiet wellness boarding house among the people involved in treatment will surely disrupt the existing atmosphere of calm and tranquility. At the same time, the activity and energy of young people will organically complement and maintain the sports and health atmosphere of the ski resort. Therefore, the travel agent must take into account the psychological mood of the clients and its comparability with the atmosphere of the place of stay. Fourthly, not only travel agency employees, but also clients should know the mandatory conditions under which the service can be provided. So, there may be misunderstandings with tourists who do not know what kind of additional services they have to pay the local tour operator for transport services, for example. Responsibility for this kind of situation lies with the tour operator who arranged the trip and negotiated with the clients. He is obliged to notify consumers about this feature of the tourist service. Thus, the principle of inseparability implies that managers must manage not only their customers, but also the employees of the organization.
The variability of quality, variability of tourist services is manifested in the fact that their quality depends on who provides them and under what conditions. There are several reasons for this variability. Firstly, services of this kind are provided and accepted simultaneously or with a short period of time, which limits the possibility of their control. Secondly, the temporary instability of demand makes it difficult to maintain the quality of service during periods of increased demand. Thirdly, a huge impact has a "human factor": much depends on the demeanor, attentiveness and friendliness of the travel agency employee; one and the same worker can serve a tourist well today and badly tomorrow because of personal troubles or poor health.
Seasonality - the dependence of the volume of tourist services on natural and climatic conditions. Uncertainty and variability must be taken into account when solving the problem of management in tourism. external environmentin which the tourist service is provided. Climatic and weather factors are among the most decisive in creating value and attractiveness of a service for a tourist. Therefore, the mistakes of meteorologists often have negative consequences for travel agencies, as tourists who are disappointed because of the weather conditions refuse further cooperation.
Insecurity is manifested in the fact that tourist services cannot be stored. Rest takes place during the period that was paid for, and at the resort where the ticket was paid. Therefore, you can use this service only during a given period of time and at this resort. In addition, depending on the object to which the tourist service is tied, its cost and equipment may vary significantly depending on the period of time.
The variety of tourist services is determined by the fact that tourists make trips for different purposes, present different requirements to tourist services, ready and able to pay different prices for tourist services. Each category of tourists corresponds to a certain segment of the tourist market. The picture becomes even more complicated if we take into account such special categories of vacationers as patients of mountain sanatoriums and specialized clinics or students of educational institutions. Further market segmentation is determined by the country of residence of the tourist. Manufacturers of tourist services focus on very specific categories of vacationers. They know their needs well, and meeting those needs brings them income.
The completeness of a tourist service is due to the fact that for a tourist it consists of a set of services (both tangible and intangible), which are a specific tourist product. These individual travel services are complementary.
The non-primacy of tourist services is due to the fact that the tourist product has not become a basic commodity and is unlikely to become one in the near future, although in modern world the importance of tourism as a means of restoring strength and health is enormous. In addition, tourism services have more paid services, the purchasing power of the population, political events and environmental phenomena affect.
The uniqueness of the tourist service means that it is not possible to repeat it in all aspects. Even two tours on the same route at the same cost, organized by the same travel agency, often go differently (due to the different composition of tourists, different conditions vehicle, weather conditions, social and political events in the host country, etc.).
The territorial division of consumption of tourist services offered by tourism enterprises is manifested in the following: initial services (information about a tourist facility, purchase of a voucher, ticket, etc.) tourists receive in places of permanent residence, other services - on the way to tourist facilities ( transport services, meals), and still others - at the location of tourist facilities (hotel accommodation, meals, excursion services, etc.). Only their combination determines the full satisfaction of tourist needs.
The elasticity of demand for tourist services is extremely high: changes in the structure or level of consumption of tourist services can occur under the influence of price and non-price factors. In other words, the demand for tourism services is characterized by the relative sensitivity of consumers to price changes: small price changes lead to significant changes in the volume of consumed tourism services. This means that with a decrease in the level of monetary income, the population will begin to reduce their needs, gradually eliminating the least important, and first of all, there is a need for tourist services, since a tourist product is not considered a basic commodity of life and the factors determining its demand are the level of the subject's income and prices. services offered.
The dependence of tourist services on the contractor is manifested in the fact that the aggregate useful properties tourist product is the result of close interaction of the elements of the material base of tourism and personnel. High level service, comfort, design of tourist equipment and equipment does not yet mean the proper quality of the tourist product, provided for by the terms of the service agreement. A tourist can receive a full range of services only with appropriate actions of the service personnel (performer).
The quality of tourist services is determined by the level of service, the professionalism of employees, largely depends on their personal interest and attention to the client. Errors and oversights of staff, dishonest attitude to the performance of their duties, failure to perform or improper performance of services can spoil the impression of the tour, lead to irreversible consequences for the travel agency (loss of clientele).
As a rule, tourist services include complex trips - service packages (tours), accommodation services, catering, transport services, cultural, sports, recreational, excursion, etc., including special services.
A package of services (tour package) is a tourist product produced by a tour operator, consisting of a certain set of services: transportation, accommodation, meals, excursions, etc. The package of services on the tour is formed depending on the purpose of the trip and the needs of tourists for their chosen type of tourist vacation.
When forming a tour and its package, there are two options for working with tourists: the implementation of customized tours and the implementation of inclusive tours.
When selling custom tours, the formation of the program and the acquisition of the range of services are made at the request and with the direct participation of the tourist. He is offered a choice of different service options for each of the types of services in the proposed vacation spot:
Accommodation - different in level, type and location of the hotel;
Meals - different options (full or half board, or no meals at all), buffet or a la carte with service, etc.
Excursions, leisure and entertainment services to choose from;
Transport services - options for air travel, rail travel, car rental, etc.
Sports and resort services - the use of such programs to choose from;
Visa services, as well as insurance services (if necessary), etc.
The services selected by the tourist are formed into the tour program, the price that the tourist pays when purchasing a tour package (tour voucher) is calculated. Usually such orders are formed in agencies and then go to the tour operator for implementation.
Inclusive tour is a tour with a rigid, pre-planned (before the contract with the client) set of services, focused on a certain type of recreation or tourism, as well as on the social class of tourists and their age. The peculiarities of the preparation and conduct of such a tour (a single program for all, strictly linked to the terms and schedule of the trip) do not allow it to be made to order. Inclusive tours are organized and offered along popular routes to famous tourism and recreation destinations that are in steady demand. The composition of services on an inclusive tour does not change during implementation.
Most of the cost of inclusive tours is usually paid for transport and accommodation, less - for food. Expenses for other services, including excursions, make up a small share of the total cost.
Factors affecting the organization of the tour package:
Demand for this trip;
Availability of material resources, infrastructure and services;
Relationships with airlines and other transport companies;
The relationship between the country of departure and the country of destination;
Relations with partner tourism organizations (service providers);
The level of tourism development in the country of destination;
Political stability in the destination country.
Non-material tourist services include services of tourist and excursion institutions; transport services; services of health resort institutions; health services; educational services; services public organizations; public administration services.
Tourist services of a material nature include non-passenger transport services; blanks; trade services; housing and communal services; domestic services.
Meeting the needs and demands of tourism requires a variety of tourism services. These services can be fully consumed (food and drink) or partially consumed (hotel accommodation).
The services provided by the travel agency are divided into main and auxiliary:
The main ones are:
Selection of the type of tourism and the route of the tour (resting places);
Clarification of the number of tour days;
Hotel selection (criteria, location);
Catering organization;
Transfer selection;
Organization of a cultural program;
Clarification of the tour price taking into account the system of discounts.
Auxiliary (additional) include:
Visa support (visa for tourists);
Accompanying (optional) tourists;
Registration of travel documents and baggage;
Delivery of tourists to the transfer and back upon arrival;
Travel and baggage insurance, etc.
According to the purpose of travel, tourist services are divided into:
For targeted tourist services (tourist services characteristic of this particular place, the consumption of which is the purpose of the trip);
Infrastructural services (services of the infrastructure complex, necessary for the life support of the population and ubiquitous).
According to their role in the structure of tourist consumption, there are:
Basic tourist services;
Additional tourist services;
Accompanying services.
The main tourist services are the targeted services included in the tour, i.e. services that are purchased in a package that guarantees their mandatory consumption at the holiday destination.
The travel package includes four mandatory elements:
Tourist center (a tourist destination, including all his recreational opportunities: natural, ecological, cultural-historical, socio-demographic, infrastructural, ethnic);
Transport (means of transportation with which you can get to the tourist center);
Accommodation services (a specific hotel that is offered to the tourist in the tourist center during the trip).
Transfer (any transportation of a tourist within the boundaries of the tourist center).
Additional tourist services - targeted and infrastructural services that can be obtained for an additional fee, not included in the tour price, but specific to a given tourist center.
Additional tourist services include excursions, hikes and travel as a type of service.
Excursion is a tourist service that meets the spiritual, aesthetic, informational and other cognitive needs of a tourist or excursionist.
Related services - services of the local infrastructure complex, which are also used by tourists.
Tourist services represent a large segment of the service sector that meet the needs of people and implement their activities in their free time: rest, entertainment, travel.