question:
Where will space debris fall this time?

Fall of Earth satellites (AES) and other space debris

How satellites fall

See also about a special case of a cosmic catastrophe:
, article

Reasons for the fall of a satellite from near-earth orbit

Uncontrolled deorbiting - and if on the head?

The free fall formula does not describe the fall of a satellite on the Earth, because its speed in Earth's orbit is higher than the speed of a body falling in the atmosphere. The atmosphere slows down the satellite, the closer to the surface, the slower the satellite falls.

The satellite orbits the Earth at a speed of 7.9 km / sec (28,440 km / h), 220 times the speed limit on the road for a car and 31 times the speed of a commercial subsonic aircraft.

As a result of braking on the upper part of the Earth's atmosphere, the satellite's speed decreases. As the satellite's speed decreases, the centrifugal force decreases and does not counterbalance the Earth's gravity, the falling satellite burrows deeper into the atmosphere.

At an altitude of 200 kilometers, the air density is 4 * 10 ** - 10 kg / cubic meter (4 multiplied by 10 to the minus tenth power).
The closer to the surface, the higher the resistance of increasingly dense air.
At an altitude of 150 kilometers, the air density is 10 times higher (4 * 10 ** - 9 kg / cubic meter).
In one orbit, the satellite will descend by about 20 km.
(1)

Due to friction against the rarefied atmosphere, the satellite moves in a spiral around the Earth. The larger the cross-sectional area of \u200b\u200bthe satellite, which meets the drag of the air, and the lower the mass of the satellite, the steeper the spiral moves the satellite.

Satellite fall trajectory curves

Artificial satellites of the Earth (AES) have an intricate asymmetrical shape, so the satellites rotate and turn when they fall. Parts with high windage are torn off from the satellites due to the pressure of the oncoming stream and heating from friction against the atmosphere. From all this, the area of \u200b\u200bthe frontal resistance is constantly changing, and the steepness of the descent spiral changes accordingly.

For example, the structure and shape of the Phobos-Soil spacecraft with a reentry module and a landing container is shown on the Roscosmos page.

Where will the satellite fall

The satellite moves in a circular orbit around the Earth. The plane of this circle of motion is constant (almost). The angle between the equator and the plane of the orbit is called the inclination of the orbit. If you take a globe and twirl around it, it becomes clear why the satellite cannot fly above the north-south latitude, which is equal to the angle of inclination of the satellite's orbit to the equator.

Under the plane of the orbit, the Earth rotates around its axis, quite at a rather high speed. At the critical altitude of the satellite, one revolution around the Earth - 88 minutes, one revolution of the Earth - in 1440 minutes. Thus, each revolution of the satellite passes over more and more western regions. The earth and the "normal" satellites rotate from west to east.

It turns out that each revolution around the Earth passes 22 degrees west of the previous one, as viewed from the Earth.

The probability of a satellite falling at any point in the orbit is equally probable (in principle), all points of the circle are equal. But satellites rarely fly in absolutely circular orbits; satellites fly in ellipses. That is, the altitude of the satellite's flight is constantly changing - under the action of inertia, and losing its linear velocity, the satellite climbs a hill (apogee), and then rolls in, accelerating, to the lower point of the orbit (perigee).

Of course, in this case, the movement of the satellite in occurs in an atmosphere of different density, that is, the kinetic energy plus the potential energy of the effect of gravity is continuously decreasing due to friction against the atmosphere. That is, the perigee and apogee (minimum and maximum height satellite orbit).

It turns out that the satellite is moving towards the surface of the planet Earth in an intricate, uneven spiral, because - see "Satellite Fall Trajectory Curves" above. But the likelihood that the satellite will hit the atmosphere for the last time, finally lose speed and go into a real fall along a ballistic trajectory (will not go to the next spiral turn) is higher at perigee.

That is, to calculate the comparative probability, the satellite will fall to New York or Moscow - you can even until the last orbit of the satellite. Actually, the whole question is in the mathematical calculation of this last round. And so the satellite is spinning randomly - see "Curves of the trajectory of the fall of the satellite", it is impossible to accurately calculate which revolution of the satellite will be the last.

Black humor of anti-satellite defense

Anti-satellite safety: fry fish without oil in a Teflon pan, absorb Teflon, live less years - less likely to suffer from orbital debris.

Authorities claim they don't know where the satellite is falling

The authorities claim that they do not know where the satellite disappeared from orbit - it may have drowned in the ocean, or it may still be in orbit. From this we can conclude that NORAD (United States and Canada's Joint Aerospace Defense System, NORAD), military space forces, missile defense (missile defense) systems, tracking systems and airspace are blind and do not function.

And if this is so, then any activist can deliver "something" like a dirty nuclear bomb by air or along a ballistic trajectory and no one will know?

Nevertheless, the authorities through the media (or vice versa, the media through the authorities) constantly keep the people in suspense with some kind of missile defense, missile threats, anti-missiles with nuclear warheads, and in general the wrong countries with nuclear weapons.

the movement of the satellite when leaving the near-earth orbit - data from the article were used:
Aerodynamic satellite paradox
Quantum. - 1998. - No. 3. - S. 2-6.
By special agreement with the editorial board and editorial board of the Kvant magazine
Electronic physics textbook PhysBook.ru

The fireball, which disintegrated into debris in the sky over the Atlantic Ocean, could have been the Frigate upper stage with 19 satellites, which had never entered its target orbit the day before. This was reported to RIA Novosti by the academician of the Tsiolkovsky Russian Academy of Cosmonautics Alexander Zheleznyakov.

Earlier, a pilot of a foreign airline said that he saw a fireball during a flight over the North Atlantic, which disintegrated into many parts. The pilot also filmed the crash.

Alexander Zheleznyakov, Academician of the Tsiolkovsky Russian Academy of Cosmonautics: “Most likely, it was just the Frigate with satellites, although it is possible that it was the third stage of the launch vehicle: it could enter the atmosphere around this area and burn up. In addition, neither NORAD (United Aerospace Defense Command of North America), nor our detection equipment, during the day, did not register the appearance of a Russian upper stage with satellites in orbit. "

IN in social networks a video was also published in which a burning object falls to pieces in the sky. The user who posted the recording stated that it was filmed by the pilot passenger aircraftflying from London to Montreal.

A friend of mine sent me this video coming back from Montreal. A Russian satellite was lost after failing to enter orbit, and they believe this is it burning up entering the Earth’s atmosphere. It’s absolutely STUNNING to watch. #AviationLovers #Space pic.twitter.com/O7yrTD62Uo

- Victoria 👸🏼 (@ThatJetsetGirl) November 28, 2017

Meanwhile, a source in the rocket and space field told TASS that not a single emergency service in the world has yet received information about the fall of the debris of the upper stage, so if they fell to Earth, which is most likely, they drowned in the ocean.

A source: “So far, there have been no reports from ground-based emergency services either from Russia or from other countries of the world about the fall of space debris from the Fregat upper stage. With a high degree of probability, it either fell into the Atlantic Ocean, or, less likely, remains in an undesignated orbit. "

Recall, the second in history took place the day before. Roskosmos reported that the Fregat upper stage with the spacecraft successfully separated from the third stage of the launch vehicle and entered an open low-earth orbit. However, after that communication with the "Fregat" was lost, the satellite "Meteor-M" never entered the target orbit.

In addition to the Meteor, the Fregat hosts satellites from Canada, Japan, the USA, Germany and Sweden, as well as the Russian student microsatellite Baumanets-2. Experts do not rule out that they could already or.

On November 28, the second rocket in its history was launched from the Vostochny cosmodrome, which was supposed to launch a hydrometeorological spacecraft into orbit. However, the satellite "Meteor-M" did not reach orbit

Photo: Roscosmos / Global Look Press

What happened

November 28, at 14:41 local time (8:41 Moscow time), from the Vostochny cosmodrome, the second rocket in its history "Soyuz-2.1b". By 9:42 Moscow time, the hydrometeorological spacecraft, the Meteor-M satellite No. 2-1, was to be launched into orbit. Then the first telemetry from the satellite was supposed to come.

In addition to the Meteor-M satellite, Soyuz-2.1b was supposed to deliver other spacecraft into orbit - the student satellite Baumanets-2, as well as nanosatellites of Russian and foreign customers.

The Soyuz-2.1b launch vehicle is launched from Vostochny for the first time. Its main difference from the 2.1a version is the more powerful third-stage engine RD-0124, developed by the Chemical Automation Design Bureau, which was scheduled to launch on April 27 last year, but was canceled by the launch complex automation. The next launch of Soyuz-2.1a is scheduled from Vostochny on December 22 this year.

Meteor-M No. 2-1 is the third vehicle of the Meteor-3M space complex, which is being created at the VNIIEM corporation. The mass of this apparatus is 2.9 tons, the estimated period of its active existence in orbit is five years.

The complex is designed to promptly receive global hydrometeorological information for weather forecasts, monitoring the ozone layer and radiation situation in near-earth space. The first two spacecraft of the complex - "Meteor-M" No. 1 and "Meteor-M" No. 2 - were successfully launched from the Baikonur cosmodrome. It is assumed that the launches of such devices will subsequently be carried out from Vostochny.

The first launch from the Vostochny cosmodrome was carried out in April last year. Then the Soyuz 2.1a launch vehicle successfully launched three satellites into orbit - Lomonosov, Aist-2D and SamSat-218.

After the rocket was launched, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin said that the launch was successful, at regular time. He also noted that in next year the launcher must be continued.

Where is the satellite

As the correspondent of RBC, who is at the cosmodrome, said, the journalists who had gathered there were explained that the connection with the satellite could not be established "due to the lack of an apparatus in the target orbit." By 12:00 Moscow time, the media reported that the Meteor-M satellite could fall into the ocean. The department has not commented on this information so far (at the time of publication of the material by 16:50).

The TASS agency, citing a source, reported that the accident could have occurred due to the explosion of the Fregat upper stage (it was he who was supposed to complete the launch of the satellite into orbit) after the first activation of its engines. The source of the Interfax agency indicates as the reason "human factor", which led to the error in the flight mission.

The Kremlin said that they are waiting for information from Roskosmos and the relevant departments. “I don’t think there is detailed information about what exactly happened, for what reason,” said Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov.

Satellite of four russian companies by 2.6 billion rubles.

Failures of the Russian space industry over the past five years

February 1, 2013: After the launch of the Zenit-3SL launch vehicle with the Intelsat-27 telecommunications satellite from the Sea Launch floating cosmodrome, an emergency engine shutdown occurred. The rocket fell about 4 km from the launch platform. The reason for the fall was the failure of the onboard power supply. The Zenit-3SL rocket was developed at the Ukrainian Yuzhnoye design bureau, and some of the components, the first stage propulsion system, the DM-SL upper stage and the control system were manufactured at Russian enterprises.

July 2, 2013: Launched from Baikonur, the Proton-M rocket with three GLONASS-M navigation satellites caught fire and fell. The accident occurred in the first minute of the flight. IN environment contaminated with toxic fuel and oxidizer. The reason for the fall was the failure of the first stage engine.

May 15, 2014: Proton-M launch vehicle, launched from the Baikonur cosmodrome, Express-AM 4R communications into a given orbit. The cause of the abnormal situation was the pressure drop in one of the third stage steering motors. Start-up and operation risks were insured for RUB 7.8 billion.

April 28, 2015: Launch of the Progress spacecraft from Baikonur with cargo for the International Space Station. After the launch from Progress, telemetry ceased to arrive, it could not enter the calculated orbit. Attempts to take control of the ship were unsuccessful, and on May 8, Progress burned up in the dense layers of the atmosphere. The accident was caused by the depressurization of the tank with the oxidizer and the fuel tank on the third stage of the Soyuz 2.1a launch vehicle.

May 16, 2015: Proton-M with the Briz-M upper stage and the Mexican communications satellite MexSat-1 took off from Baikonur in the morning. At the 498th second of the flight at an altitude of 161 km, an emergency engine shutdown occurred. As a result, the third stage of the rocket, the upper stage and the satellite almost completely burned out in the atmosphere. was the failure of the third stage steering engine.

December 5, 2015: The Kosmos-2511 military spacecraft was unable to separate from the Volga upper stage of the Soyuz-2.1v rocket launched from the Plesetsk cosmodrome. Three days after the launch, the satellite left orbit and burned up in the atmosphere. The commission investigating the incident found that one of the four locks that held the satellite on the Volga block was malfunctioning.

December 1, 2016: Soyuz-U launch vehicle with spaceship Progress MS-04, which was supposed to deliver cargo to the ISS, was launched from the Baikonur cosmodrome, but at the 383rd second of the flight, during the operation of the third stage of the RD-0110 rocket engine, communication with the spacecraft was lost. The fall of the rocket fragments occurred about 100 km west of Kyzyl, in the Republic of Tyva, most of the debris burned up in the dense layers of the atmosphere. due to the abnormal separation of the third stage of the rocket from the transport cargo ship.

Konstantin Chmarov, director of the Roscosmos branch at the Vostochny cosmodrome, said that the launch vehicle that launched on November 28 did not fall, but the location of the space warhead is unknown. Amur.Info .

“The spacecraft includes the upper stage and spacecraft - their location raises questions. The first obvious assumption is that some of the vehicles burned out in the atmosphere, collapsed, because it is impossible to enter the atmosphere at such a speed and be preserved as a monolithic piece, ”the specialist said.

According to him, after the destruction and up to the present time, “dispersal” began, that is, the dispersion of various parts of the apparatus. At the same time, he noted that all the components of the Soyuz-2.1b launch vehicle - stages, side parts, fairing - landed in the planned areas, for example, in two regions of Yakutia. He added that the upper stage "Fregat" fell in the oceans.

“Everything that moves in near-earth space along a trajectory has a corresponding trajectory and a point on the globe. According to rough estimates, this is the water area of \u200b\u200bthe world ocean, specifically the Atlantic Ocean, ”said the expert.

Chmarov also denied reports that a five-ton fuel container with a dangerous substance - heptyl - was destroyed as a result of a rocket explosion, and it got into the ocean.

“There was not a drop of heptyl on the rocket. Heptyl as a propellant component was fueled in the upper stage. No fuel spilled. It burns out or explodes under appropriate conditions, ”the specialist said.

He also explained that there are positive aspects in this launch.

“The building of the cosmodrome and its infrastructure continues, jobs are being prepared. For this launch, workplace and tested for the Fregat upper stage.

The cosmodrome is being built up, modernized, acquiring a modern look, and can perform universal tasks. Secondly, the combat crew is being improved. The mission was accomplished by the cosmodrome perfectly. The flight tests were excellent. The conclusion of the payload in parallel with the flight tests - it has not been performed, "Chmarov summed up.

The Soyuz-2.1b rocket with the Meteor-M hydrometeorological satellite No. 2-1, the Baumanets-2 student spacecraft and 17 foreign nanosatellites launched on Tuesday, November 28, from the Vostochny cosmodrome. This launch was the second in the history of Vostochny. The fact that the launch did not go smoothly became clear after Roscosmos confirmed the loss of communication with the Meteor-M satellite launched from the Vostochny cosmodrome.

The incident could be the reason for the postponement of the third rocket launch scheduled for December 22 from the new Russian cosmodrome. According to sources in the space industry, the Fregat Upper Stage requires careful checks and may even be sent back for revision.

“They will hardly be in time before the end of the year. Therefore, with a high degree of probability, this start from Vostochny will take place already in 2018, ”the industry said.

According to preliminary information, the reason for the failure was the human factor - an error led to an incorrect turn of the launch vehicle in pitch and an incorrect position of the upper stage platform.

A source from RIA Novosti reported that the satellites fell into the ocean.

Moreover, it the best option development of events. If they remain in orbit, it will be impossible to save them - expensive satellites will only become space debris littering outer space.

“All satellites - Russian and foreign, launched into different orbits with the help of the Fregat upper stage - can definitely be considered lost, regardless of whether they are in an off-design orbit or fell into the ocean. Even if the first activation of the upper stage took place normally, the altitude at which it happened is clearly not enough to bring the vehicles into the calculated orbits, ”said another informed source.

The network also has an amateur