Problems and prospects for the development of agriculture. Problems and prospects of agriculture Planned costs for the enterprise as a whole are calculated by summing up labor costs by crops and groups of livestock

A source: International Independent Institute for Agrarian Policy

The presented report is based on a study by the International Independent Institute of Agrarian Policy in order to identify key trends in the agricultural sector in Russia and assess them to determine the most likely scenarios for the development of the situation in the next few years.

Research results can be disseminated and mentioned in the media, as well as used by other think tanks when conducting more focused research.

In the course of the study, several methods were used to assess the situation in the agricultural sector in Russia:

Questioning the heads of large regional companies;
analysis of the dynamics of the total volume of products produced in the industry;
analysis of the financial environment and lending conditions for companies in the industry;
data-driven analysis of global trends in agriculture.

The main sources of information were data from the Ministry of Agriculture of Russia, the Bank of Russia, as well as the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), and the results of a survey of top management of companies from this industry. Based on the results obtained, forecasts of the development of the situation in the agricultural industry in Russia were formed, which reflect the most likely scenarios based on current conditions.

Study structure

The structure of the presented study is formed as follows:

Actual data on the situation in agriculture in Russia;
compiled research results;
forecasts formed on the basis of the results obtained;
a separate paragraph assesses the terms of lending to companies in this industry and their impact on the dynamics of growth in manufactured products.

Current situation in the industry

At the end of 2015, agriculture became the leading sector in terms of production growth rates - the indicator grew by 3.5% compared to 3.7% recorded at the end of 2015.

A significant increase in production in agriculture made it possible to reduce the cost of purchasing food products abroad by almost 2 times to $ 23 billion. Russian farmers have harvested a record harvest of major agricultural crops. The gross harvest of grain and leguminous crops in 2015 amounted to 104.3 million tons of grain in weight after processing, including 61.8 million tons of wheat (in 2014 - 59.7 million tons). In addition, a record gross yield was obtained for a number of crops: corn for grain was harvested 12.7 million tons, soybeans - 2.6 million tons, rice - 1.11 million tons, curly flax - more than 500 thousand tons. Also, 37.6 million tons of sugar beet were harvested, 9.2 million tons of sunflower oilseeds were threshed.

Increased production of potatoes and vegetables. In all categories of farms, the gross harvest of potatoes amounted to 33.6 million tons, which is 15.9% more than the average level over the past five years (in 2014 - 31.5 million tons). A record harvest of vegetables was harvested - 16.1 million tons (in 2014 - 15.5 million tons), which is 12.3% higher than the average level over the past five years.

At the end of the year, the production of livestock and poultry for slaughter in live weight in farms of all categories amounted to 13.4 million tons, which is 4.2% or 539 thousand tons more than in 2014 (source - Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation). Over the year, in agricultural organizations, the production of livestock and poultry for slaughter in live weight increased by 7.2%, in peasant (farm) households - by 4.6%, and in households, production decreased by 3.4%.

Agriculture turned out to be one of the few industries where the volume of lending did not show a sharp drop, despite the serious contraction of the credit market amid tightening monetary policy. Central Bank data show that banks last year significantly increased loans to agricultural companies in their portfolios - from 1.7% to 2.1%.

results

As a result of a survey of top management of companies from the regions, which are the main "locomotive" of the agricultural industry in Russia, the following data were obtained:

• More than 50% of respondents assess the situation in the industry as positive-neutral, 20% as negative, 30% as neutral.
• Of the 20% who assessed the situation as negative, the overwhelming majority (over 85%) linked their assessment to the deteriorating credit conditions and the discrepancy between the nominal conditions for obtaining loans and the real ones.
• Out of 50% of respondents who rated the situation in the industry as positive-neutral, 60% linked their assessment with the government's support for the import substitution policy, which freed the Russian market from imported products. 40% associate their assessment with a possible improvement in lending conditions in the next 2-3 years, as well as an increase in profitability.
• 70% of those who assessed the situation as neutral believe that the next year will determine the main trend in the Russian agricultural market: will it continue to revive or will it begin to stagnate, turning into a recession following a contraction in consumer spending.

The survey involved 900 respondents.

As a result of the analysis of data from the Ministry of Agriculture, the Bank of Russia and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the International Independent Institute for Agrarian Policy identified the following key trends:
the volume of lending to the industry is stagnating;
world food prices have bottomed out and will begin to recover in the second half of the year;
the impetus from government-implemented programs to support the industry is fading away.

Forecasts

In our opinion, positive dynamics in agriculture will be observed at the end of the current year, however, there is a tendency for a slowdown in growth rates. The main reason for the slowdown in production growth at the moment is the fall in food prices on the world market.

According to our forecasts, the dynamics of prices on the global food market will begin to improve as early as this year, which will probably mean generally higher prices for the industry's products next year.

But already in 2017, the following negative factors will put pressure on the agricultural industry:

The rapid decline in the income of the population;
a decrease in lending to agricultural enterprises;
drop in business activity;
exhaustion of the impulse from the implementation of the agricultural support program in 2009–2012.

The implementation of a number of state programs for the development of agriculture has brought certain results. However, the decline in world trade and a sharp deterioration in economic conditions nullified the results of government support measures.

Thus, despite the recovery of Russia's GDP growth rates this year to 0–0.5% in 2016 and to 1.0–1.5% in 2017, the growth rates of production in the agricultural sector will continue to decline.

By next year, the growth rate of gross value added will not exceed the growth rate of output, and the share of gross value added in agriculture in the total gross value added will begin to decline, all this, taking into account the decline in production growth, is a “red signal”. This situation indicates that stagnation will begin in agriculture, which threatens to develop into a recession.

In the event that a new large-scale agricultural support program is not implemented in the coming year, which will involve gaining access to cheap liquidity and reducing tax pressure on industry enterprises, the 2012 situation may repeat itself by 2018.

Lending

Since 2013, the real volume of lending to agricultural enterprises has significantly decreased, which sharply affected the dynamics of the volume of production.

The key problem for the industry is still the unavailability of long-term loans, enterprises are forced to lend at extremely high interest rates for a fairly short period, which only allows them to survive the season and does not provide an opportunity to plan their activities for a long period.

This is the main problem that, despite the reduction in the supply of products from abroad, Russian companies failed to take advantage of the effect of import substitution.

The program of the Ministry of Agriculture, under which it is supposed to reduce the effective rate on investment loans to 5%, can significantly stimulate activity in the industry.

According to the estimates of the International Independent Institute of Agrarian Policy, the effect of a decrease in the real effective rate for the entire industry will spur the growth of production in agriculture to 5-6% in the coming years.

Changing the structure of agriculture

The fact is that since the beginning of 2013, the share of agricultural enterprises and farms in the structure of industries, which are key consumers of the state's incentive programs, has been sharply increasing. Gaining access to cheap liquidity will enable companies and farms to invest in capital goods and achieve significant productivity gains.

Under current conditions, when the lowest effective rates on investment loans are in beef and dairy cattle breeding (6-10% per annum), and in crop production - 9-13%, this is practically impossible, given that the average profitability in the industry is several times lower ...

However, in our opinion, the change in the lending scheme for the agricultural sector, as a result of which the creditor banks will become the recipients of subsidies, will contribute to
ineffective distribution of funds due to the emergence of a "conflict of interest". In accordance with the Law on the Development of Agriculture, state subsidies are intended for agricultural producers and must be targeted and effective.

Livestock farming in Russia is one of the most promising industries. Thanks to the products that are produced in this area, it is possible to provide the population with food and goods for light and leather products. However, today it does not receive adequate financial support, which hinders its development.

The current state of animal husbandry in the Russian Federation

The Russian government is taking all possible measures to support agriculture, in particular, animal husbandry in our region. However, the statistics of the livestock speaks only of a gradual decline. The development of animal husbandry is at the stage of stagnation. If in the early 90s of the XX century the indicators of the number of cattle livestock reached the key mark of 57 million, then by 2009 there was a twofold decline.

Such a rollback in agriculture has become a determinant of the fact that livestock products are presented on the shelves not only of Russian production, but also of foreign ones. This became the reason that it is almost impossible to find high-quality, but at the same time affordable meat.

Statistics

The reasons for the decline in agriculture in the Russian Federation

Meat and dairy farming in the Russian Federation is in a depressed state for a number of reasons, which experts in this field speak about quite openly:

1. Firstly, the production of products requires large financial investments, but the payback from the sale of goods takes several times longer. Unlike other spheres, in meat or dairy farming it takes several years, which does not allow making a profit at lightning speed.
2. Secondly, agriculture in most regions of the Russian Federation is in decline due to the fact that modernization of production is impossible due to high prices for new equipment.
3. Thirdly, the ever-increasing role of imported products in the Russian market has caused a decrease in product prices. This made animal husbandry in Russia completely useless, as farmers cannot profit from their work.
4. Fourth, agriculture is not an attractive area for foreign investment. are few in number, which dooms many farms to bankruptcy.

What else influences the prosperity of agriculture?

Of course, it is agriculture that directly depends on climatic conditions. The economic efficiency from the production of products will be only if lower financial resources were initially invested in development. In other words, regions with a tropical climate are more promising in terms of livestock development than those located in temperate or semi-arid zones.

Modern equipment makes it possible to create comfortable climatic conditions for the development of animal husbandry in our region, but this in any case will affect the quality of feed for livestock. Based on the foregoing, it can be concluded that optimal climate conditions are becoming an important determinant of resource consumption and profit.

Policy of the Government of the Russian Federation to support agriculture

The Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation is taking all sorts of measures that should help reduce meat imports and raise farms.

1. Thanks to close cooperation with the banking sector, enterprises are provided with credit funds that allow them to complete the production cycle. Thus, animal husbandry in our region is supported by the Rosselkhozbank, which allocates substantial funds to complete the construction of large production facilities.
2. The Russian government provides subsidies, thanks to which it is possible to pay off the interest rate of the loan for the construction of new livestock facilities.
3. In the federal budget of the Russian Federation, a separate item is laid down to provide material assistance to the regions of the state in the field of agriculture. allow us to bring animal husbandry to a new level in our region, to raise the production of livestock for slaughter and milk production.

Prospects for the development of agriculture in Russia

Russia's accession to the WTO played a dual role for the development of domestic agriculture. On the one hand, the cost of agricultural machinery will decrease significantly, making it affordable even for small industries. On the other hand, the ratification of the WTO agreement implies the entry of imported products into the Russian market at a low cost, which increases competition in this area. High resource use will be a key factor driving further agricultural decline.

The only way out of this situation is state support for domestic producers. It is necessary to reduce the tax rate for local farmers, provide significant financial support in regions with difficult climatic conditions. Only in such a case can animal husbandry in Russia be competitive.

There are many unsolved problems in the agricultural sector. The number of unprofitable farms does not decrease, and the level of use of agricultural land remains low for a long time. The industry has the lowest wages, rather weak social protection of the rural population in comparison with other sectors of the economy. An equally important problem is the renewal of the machine and tractor fleet of farms, the implementation of technological reorientation to modern resource-saving technologies for the production of competitive products. There are too many unresolved problems in animal husbandry. There is a shortage of meat and dairy products in the country, and a significant amount of produced livestock products do not find sales channels due to their low quality and insufficient paying capacity of the population.

To ensure the further development of the agrarian sector of the state, the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine in 2007 approved the State Target Program for the Development of the Ukrainian Village for the Period until 2015.The main goal of the program is to ensure the vital activity of agriculture, its competitiveness in the domestic and foreign markets, to ensure the country's food security, to create conditions for integrated development of rural areas, preservation of the rural way of life and the population as the bearer of Ukrainian identity, culture and spirituality. At the same time, it is not the economic paradigm of management that is brought to the fore, but the person, the provision of normal conditions for her life.

The low efficiency of modern agrarian policy, primarily land and budget, is the most important cause of the rural crisis. A very big problem is the imperfection of mechanisms, distribution of both land resources and agricultural and social budgets. At the same time, it should be borne in mind that state subsidies are only a means of supporting agricultural development, and not its main source. The main attention should be focused on attracting investment, primarily domestic, in the agricultural sector, on improving the overall investment climate in the country.

The strategic objective of the state's agricultural policy in the economic sphere is, first of all, the formation of an effective competitive agro-industrial production capable of ensuring the country's food security and increasing exports of certain types of agricultural products and food. The basis for increasing production efficiency and agricultural incomes is the growth of the technological level of agricultural production, the introduction of resource-saving and environmentally friendly technologies as a result of supporting relevant research and the introduction of a consulting system in agriculture.

Directly in agriculture, to stop the decline in production, it is urgently required:

• - Carry out financial recovery;
• - To accelerate the development and implementation of new management mechanisms;
• - Creation of state food funds;
• - To organize a specialized financial system for servicing agricultural commodity producers;
• - To restore the insurance system in agriculture.

At the state level, it is necessary to support the technological re-equipment of the processing industry, to introduce simplified processes as a result of the use of imported equipment. This will accelerate the development of market infrastructure and improve the competitiveness of products in the domestic market.

The development of the market for agricultural products and foodstuffs should be determined by the level of profitability of agricultural production, the rate of formation of the market infrastructure, the development of interregional ties and the improvement of organizational structures in the field of promoting products from producer to consumer.

It is necessary to gradually develop and implement targeted product programs at the state and regional levels. First, this work needs to be launched by local authorities. The state program should be aimed at organizing interregional exchange and supporting the commodity production of the regions with the aim of their self-sufficiency.

Insurance coverage of agricultural production is an important element of the system of financial and credit support of the agricultural sector. Despite this, the insurance market in the agricultural sector remains less developed, due to a number of reasons.

The main criteria for the development of the agricultural insurance system should be: transparency and trust between the participants in the insurance system, the ability to take into account the interests of all its participants in the development of new insurance products; voluntariness of participation in the insurance system, subject to the regulation of the actions of the participants in the system and control by the state when providing state support; economic feasibility of activities in the agricultural insurance market for private insurance companies; efficient use of state resources to support agricultural insurance.

To improve the management of agriculture, then the efforts of state structures should be aimed at:

• * Formation of a rural management system close to EU standards.
• * Development of a network of professional and interprofessional associations with the appropriate powers to protect and balance the interests of their founders and the release of executive authorities from functions unusual for them.
• * Determination of the authorized state body for the development of rural areas.
• * Direction of the activities of executive authorities to improve strategic analysis, forecasting, monitoring and implementation of control functions.

Based on the above, we can conclude: as a result of reforming the agrarian sector of the economy, the economic efficiency of production in the agro-industrial complex increases, its credit, investment and innovative attractiveness increases, which ultimately will become a decisive condition for ensuring the successful development of rural areas, the production of competitive products, not only for protection the domestic market, but also to enter the foreign market with it, the development of European economic standards.

State programs for the development of agriculture: modern realities

25.04.2016, 16:51 Analytics

The agro-industrial complex is one of the most important sectors of the Russian economy: it concentrates about 13% of the main production capacities, 14% of the labor force, and produces about 6% of the gross domestic product. Recently, in the Russian Federation, special attention has been paid to the development of the agricultural complex, since the organization of food security and the formation of an effective agro-industrial complex are the basis of the country's stability.

State program for agricultural development and regulation for 2013-2020

• have a well-written business plan;
• provide a plan for spending money with an indication of the planned acquisitions and prices for such expenses;
• have their own funds in the amount of at least 10% of the subsidized amount;
• creation of at least 3 jobs;
• after receiving state subsidies, carry out farming activities for at least 5 years;
• the funds received must be spent for their intended purpose within 24 months after their receipt.

In addition to subsidies, the state also provided for the possibility of credit support for novice farmers. Thus, JSC "Rosselkhozbank" offers to use a special loan product at 8.5% per annum. Thanks to the action of such a loyal lending program, those who are just taking their first steps in farming can take advantage of a loan program for an amount of up to 15 million rubles, the repayment period should not exceed 10 years.

As practice shows, such financial support from the state allows any farm to turn into a successful agricultural enterprise that brings profit within 5 years.

Grants in Action: How to Succeed in Business?

Farms with state support (subsidies) are actively developing in the Leningrad Region at this stage. About 1,000 peasant and private farms are successfully operating here today.

The state program to support novice farmers has been successfully implemented in the Leningrad region since 2012. Over these five years, 110 farms and 68 family-type livestock enterprises have received grants. About 750 million rubles have been allocated from the federal and regional budgets for gratuitous subsidies. In the last 3 years alone, the total volume of products produced by farmers in the region has almost doubled. According to the results of work in 2015, the gross product volume reached 2.5 billion rubles.

In the Kingisepp region, they managed to appreciate the state support provided with the allocation of grants. So, in April 2016, another agricultural facility appeared here - a livestock farm for 800 sheep, the creation of which became possible thanks to the receipt of a grant, which was allocated as part of an action for the development of animal husbandry. It is noteworthy that the capacity of the farm enterprise is designed to produce at least 20 tons of meat per year.

The farm of Anatoly Similian received a state subsidy in 2014, which made it possible to receive financial support in the amount of 6.9 million rubles. During the implementation of the project, a sheep farm building with an area of ​​1.2 thousand square meters was erected. meters, new equipment was purchased (cremator, drinking cups and feeders), a slaughterhouse was fully equipped, the livestock was replenished with 180 elite breeds of ewes.

During the implementation of the project, it was possible to double the number of sheep (from 400 to 800 heads), to purchase 100 bull-calves for fattening. Today, this farm actively sells beef and lamb to the population of St. Petersburg and the region through its own trading facilities. The unique agricultural enterprise of Anatoly Similian is one of the 20 leaders in Russia. The experience of this farm is recommended for study and implementation in all regions of the Russian Federation.

The world economy is a complex system that includes many different elements and the basis of which is the international and national production of material and spiritual goods, their distribution, exchange and consumption, limited by the framework of individual states. Each of these phases of the world reproduction process both on a global scale and within individual states, depending on their place and share as a whole, has an impact on the functioning of the entire world economic system.

The world economy, or the world economy is a set of national economies that are in constant dynamics, in motion, with growing international ties and, accordingly, the most complex mutual influence, obeying the objective laws of a market economy, as a result of which an extremely contradictory, but at the same time more or less integral world economic system.

The modern world economy is not homogeneous. It includes states that differ in social structure, political structure, level of development of productive forces and production relations, as well as the nature, scale and methods of international economic relations.

An important problem of the world economy is the interaction of multi-level systems, which are characterized not only by the degree of development, but also by the degree of involvement in MRI and the world economy. Half of the population of developing countries lives in a closed economy, unaffected by international economic exchange and capital movement.

The peculiarity of the current development of the world economy is integration, and the integration is universal: capital, production, labor.

The main trends in the development of agriculture in the world economy.

First of all, it is necessary to characterize the general features inherent in the modern stage of agricultural development in developing countries.

Scientific selection, the creation of high-yielding hybrid varieties of grain have led to an increase in agricultural production in a number of developing countries. This was also facilitated by other factors of the "green revolution" (a certain increase in the use of fertilizers, an expansion of irrigation work, an increase in mechanization, an increase in the classification of a part of the employed labor force, etc.). But they covered only a small part of the territory of the states that participated in the "green revolution".

The main reason for the difficulties of these countries in the development of agriculture lies in the backwardness of their agrarian relations. Thus, a number of Latin American states are characterized by latifundia - extensive private land holdings that form the basis of landlord-type farms. In most countries of Asia and Africa, along with large farms belonging to local and foreign capital, farms of the feudal and semi-feudal type are widespread, in a number of countries even with remnants of tribal relations.

The motley and backward character of agrarian relations is combined with vestiges in the organization of society, the enormous influence of the institution of tribal and intertribal leaders, the widespread dissemination of animism and other diverse beliefs.

The peculiarities of the agrarian system and other factors have led to the fact that the agriculture of many developing countries cannot meet their food needs. Until now, the proportion of the population that does not receive the necessary nutrition remains very large.

While the absolute and relative numbers of people suffering from malnutrition have declined, the total number of hungry people remains huge. According to various estimates, their number in the world is about 1 billion people. Malnutrition alone in developing countries kills 20 million every year.

Traditional diets in a number of countries do not contain enough calories and often do not have the required amount of protein and fat. Their shortage affects people's health and the quality of the workforce. These tendencies are especially acute in the countries of South and East Asia.

The difficult agricultural situation and food security challenges pose a challenge to food security for many developing countries.

The calculations of UN experts have shown that a significant part of the developing countries has a very low coefficient of self-sufficiency. 24 states had a very low level of food security, of which 22 were African. The aggravation of the situation in a number of developing countries has necessitated the adoption of measures aimed at alleviating the food problem. Food aid has been an important tool for reducing hunger. transfer of resources on terms of soft loans or in the form of gratuitous gifts.

The main supplies of food aid go to the least developed countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America. The main supplier is the United States. In recent years, the role of the EU countries has been increasing, especially in relation to the least developed African and Asian states.

Agricultural development trends

The data considered above testify to the great achievements of world agriculture and, at the same time, to considerable difficulties and contradictions in its modern development. According to the calculations of Russian specialists, agricultural production in the world has grown

• from 415 billion dollars in 1900
• up to 580 billion in 1929,
• 645 in 1938,
• 760 in 1950,
• $ 2,475 billion in 2000

The hierarchy of agricultural producers among developed countries in 2000 looked as follows: in the first place was the United States with the volume of agricultural products of 175 billion dollars, in the second - France - 76.5, in the third - Italy - 56.0, in fourth - Germany - $ 52.5 billion

Although the world now produces more food than ever before, an estimated 1 billion people, as noted, are constantly hungry.

Humanity is looking for an optimal solution to the food problem. If we focus on the current level of nutrition of a resident of the United States, then food resources in 2030 will be enough for only 2.5 billion people, and the population of the Earth by this time will be about 8.9 billion. And if we take the average consumption rates of the beginning of the XXI century. , then by this time the modern level of India will be reached (450 g of grain per day per person). The redistribution of food resources can escalate into political conflicts.

Economists rightly consider the spontaneous development of relationships in the sphere of production, consumption and redistribution of food to be unacceptable. There is a need for concerted action and the elaboration of an international development strategy. Its content can be divided into 4 main directions.

First Is the expansion of the land fund. At the present stage, mankind effectively uses an average of about 0.34 hectares of arable land per person. But there are considerable reserves, and theoretically there are 4.69 hectares of land per one earthling. Due to this reserve, the areas used in agriculture can really be increased. But, firstly, the reserves are still limited, and secondly, part of the earth's surface is difficult to use or simply unsuitable for agricultural processing. And besides, a lot of funds will be required to carry out the operation to increase the area.

As a result, it becomes much more important second direction - increasing economic opportunities by increasing the efficiency of agricultural production. Scientists have calculated that if advanced technologies were used on all the areas used now, then at present agriculture could feed at least 12 billion people. But the reserves of the achieved efficiency could continue to grow, in particular, due to the use of various biotechnologies and further progress in the development of genetics.

But a real way to increase economic efficiency can only become if social opportunities are expanded. This is third direction of the development strategy, the main task of which is to carry out deep and consistent agrarian reforms in developing countries, taking into account the peculiarities of the conditions in each of them. The aim of the reforms is to overcome the backwardness of the existing agrarian structures. At the same time, special attention must be paid to eliminating the negative consequences associated with the widespread prevalence of primitive communal relations in a number of African countries, latifundism in Latin American countries and the fragmentation of small-peasant farms in Asian states.

When carrying out agrarian reforms, it is advisable to widely use the positive experience accumulated in developed countries, in particular to improve the role of the state in the development of agriculture, especially by subsidizing the use of the latest technologies, various support for small and medium-sized farms, etc. character, variety of forms and material incentives for participants.

One of the objectives of social reforms, combined with measures to increase economic efficiency, is to reduce the gap in consumption levels between different groups of countries.

Obviously, the improvement of state activities also affects the sphere of population reproduction, the growth of which can be more regulated using a wide variety of means.

And, finally, the fourth area can be international cooperation and assistance from developed countries to the least developed. The purpose of this cooperation is not only to address the most pressing food shortages, but also to stimulate the internal capabilities of developing countries. And for this they need comprehensive assistance in the development of not only the economy, but also the spheres of education, health care, various branches of science and culture.

Prospects for the development of agriculture in the world

Calculations of long-term forecasts, developed jointly by specialists from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and FAO, provide an assessment of the market for basic agricultural products for 10 years ahead. If we accept as a hypothesis that in the longer term the same tendencies and the degree of influence of various factors on each other will be preserved, then it is possible to construct a scenario for the development of the situation in world agriculture on the basis of existing forecasts.

There are several options for forecasting the development of world and Russian agriculture for the period up to 2050. Four hypotheses were put forward as prerequisites for this forecast.

First. The acreage under the main crops (wheat, corn, rice) will not decline; and will even increase. This is one of the main lessons to be learned by all countries as a result of the food crisis in 2007-2009. Otherwise, many countries and humanity as a whole doom themselves to a constant repetition of such crises.

Second. In all countries, more and more resources will be spent on the implementation of the achievements of scientific and technological progress in agriculture, which will increase the efficiency of the use of resources, primarily land and water.

Third. Developing countries in many regions will increase their protein intake from meat and dairy products. It follows from this that an increasing proportion of the cultivated plant resources will be used for feed.

Fourth. In most countries, the trend will continue to use agricultural resources, primarily for food purposes. The only exceptions will be those countries where there are special natural and political conditions that allow them to efficiently use land resources for the production of biofuels. These countries include, first of all, the United States (ethanol from corn), Brazil (ethanol from sugar cane) and, in the future, a number of countries in Southeast Asia that will be able to master the efficient production of biodiesel from palm oil.

What and how much humanity will eat. Wheat production is projected by 2020 at 806 million tons (an increase of 18% against 2008), and in 2050 - 950 million tons (an increase of 40% against the 2008 level). Over the same period, according to UN forecasts, the population will increase by about 30-35%. Consequently, the per capita grain supply in the wheat segment may slightly increase.

In developing countries, an increase in the share of imports in total wheat consumption can be expected from 24-26% to 30% due to the increasing use of wheat in animal husbandry. The least developed countries forecast the highest production growth rates (2.8 times in 2050 compared to 2008). Only in this case will they be able to reduce their dependence on imports from 60% to 50%. However, this level cannot be considered normal either. Certain actions are needed on the part of developed countries, which could contribute to an increase in wheat production directly in this group of states.

Now we present some results of forecasting the development of the meat and dairy industry. It is estimated that global milk production will grow at a faster rate than population growth. By 2050, world milk production may reach 1,222 million tons, which is almost 80% higher than in 2008. The largest contribution to this growth should be made by developing countries, in which production will increase by almost 2.25 times. However, even in the distant future, the gap in the productivity of dairy farming between developed and developing civilizations will remain significant. In developing countries, you can expect some reduction in the number of cows with a significant increase in their productivity. This will solve two problems: to increase the production of plant food resources available to the population, and to increase the share of milk protein in the diet of the poor.

The most acute and complex problem remains meat production, which is the main factor in improving the nutrition of the world's population.

Forecast calculations show that beef production and consumption may increase by more than 60% by 2050, pork - by 77%, and poultry meat - 2.15 times. The growth rate of meat production may exceed the growth rate of the population. The possibility of outstripping growth of the meat industry in developing countries, which will be able to satisfy domestic demand through their own production, has been identified. In the least developed countries, given these assumptions, it can be predicted that a significant part of the demand for beef and pork will be met by domestic production, while 40% of poultry meat consumption will be covered by imports.

The presented forecasts of the production of the main types of agricultural products suggest that, provided that agriculture is transferred to an innovative, resource-saving development trajectory over the foreseeable 40-year period, it is possible to significantly reduce the threat of a protracted world food crisis. An even more pressing problem for the world community is overcoming the dire threat of hunger.

Various versions of the forecast of food consumption in the world indicate an increase in its level per capita. However, the rate of such growth will slow down. Over 30 years (from 1970 to 2000), the consumption of food products in the world (in energy equivalent) has grown from 2,411 to 2,789 kcal per person per day, i.e. the growth was 16% or 0.48% on average per year. According to the forecast for 2001-2030, consumption will increase to 2950 kcal, but the increase over 30 years will be only 9% or 0.28% on average per year.

By 2050, the increase in consumption is projected to reach 3130 kcal per person per day, and the increase over 20 years will be 3% or 0.15% per year. At the same time, developing countries will increase consumption 5-6 times faster than developed countries. Thanks to such dynamics, the difference in the level of food consumption between different civilizations will be reduced, which should become the basis for a more harmonious and socially stable development of mankind.

Currently, only half of the population is provided with adequate nutrition. 30 years ago, this category included only 4% of the population. By the middle of the century, about 90% of the world's population will be able to consume food at the level of more than 2,700 kcal per day per capita.

Achieving such production parameters is a super task for world agriculture, given that the transition to an innovative development path is associated with high costs and risks.

Prospects for the development of agriculture in Russia

Based on the dynamics of the development of markets for the main types of food, calculations were made for Russia. All forecast indicators were calculated for a ten-year horizon from 2009 to 2018. The peculiarity of this forecast is that it used macroeconomic prerequisites, which were calculated by the World Bank for all countries of the world.

When compiling the forecast, the hypothesis was used that in the next 10 years the GDP growth rate in Russia will be at the level of 4.5% (the presented forecast indicates the objective potential of the Russian agricultural sector).

In accordance with production estimates according to the baseline forecast, wheat production in Russia will gradually increase and will reach 54 million tons by 2018.This estimate is largely related to the hypothesis of low yield growth rates (20 kg / ha by 2018) at At the same time, the average export volumes in the first half of the forecast period will decrease to 8 million tons, and then will grow to 12 million in 2018.However, according to the estimates of the Ministry of Agriculture of Russia and many Russian experts, the yield growth will occur at a faster pace, which will provide large volumes wheat production and export.

An increase in the production of all types of meat is predicted. By 2018, the total production of meat will grow to 8.5 million tons (in carcass weight), including: beef - 2.0 million tons, pork - 3.2 million tons, poultry meat - 3, 4 million tons. In connection with the growth of production, a decrease in imports for all types of meat is forecasted. The largest reduction is estimated for pork, where the value of imports by 2018 will amount to only 130 thousand tons. Imports of beef will decrease to 480 thousand tons, and for poultry meat - to 1100 thousand. It should be noted that this forecast was developed before the adoption of new quotas for import of meat.

The forecasts for the development of the dairy sector are based on the hypothesis that the existing conservative trends will continue. By 2018, milk production will only increase to the level of 40 million tons. At the same time, the number of dairy cows will grow slightly (up to 10 million heads). Russian experts believe that the implementation of state programs aimed at supporting the dairy sector will be able to change the situation in this industry, which will achieve higher indicators.

These are some of the results of forecasting the dynamics and structural changes in the agricultural sector of the Russian Federation. Russia has a powerful competitive advantage: vast land areas, including the most fertile chernozems, availability of water resources, a variety of climatic zones and agricultural landscapes from north to south and from west to east. The main problems of the agricultural sector of the country's economy are technological lagging in many sectors and regions of the Russian Federation. However, according to the estimates of international and Russian scientific centers, in the near future it is the agricultural sector of Russia that will become one of the main locomotives of the economy thanks to the modernization of agriculture and its transition to an innovative path of development.

Conclusion

Agriculture remains one of the leading branches of material production in the world economy. On land, the quality of productive land changes significantly. Soil fertility depends on many natural factors. A survey by FAO found that in the vast majority of land areas, natural factors limit the possibilities of farming.

The globalization of the economy, with all its contradictions and distortions, has the potential for the development of environmentally friendly and economically efficient agriculture. It can alleviate the global food crisis and prevent its worst form - mass famine with numerous human casualties. This requires the development of long-term forecasts of food supply for the world's population, as well as programs for the development of the agro-industrial complex and food markets by country and region. Of particular importance in these programs should belong to the development and development of resource-saving technologies in all spheres of activity related to food supply of the population.

In Russia, a path has been chosen for a large-scale modernization of food production using resource-saving technologies, greening the agricultural sector, as well as ensuring sustainable development of rural areas. A sufficiently high level of provision of the agricultural sector with natural resources will become a strategic competitive advantage of Russia in the medium term.

In the meantime, based on an assessment of the agro-natural potential, it can be concluded that, in general, in third world countries, with a low level of investment, 1 hectare can feed 0.61 people, with an intermediate level - 2.1 people, with a high level - 5.05.

If the low level of investment in agriculture remains, then in the coming years, out of 117 developing countries, already 64 states will be classified as critical, i.e. their population will not be provided with food according to FAO and WHO standards.

A serious danger to humanity also lies in the depletion of the natural gene pool. This is due to the reduction of cultivated species and varieties used in agriculture and the predominant breeding of the most productive and resistant to any negative influence of plants and animals. But the stability of natural biocenoses is primarily in their biodiversity, therefore, gene banks are created in some countries, where the breeding of various breeds of livestock and plant species is supported.