What is risk by. Theoretical concepts of risk. By sphere of origin

The concept of "risk" has dozens, if not hundreds, of definitions. This is one of the most debated questions among research theorists. Moreover, it should be emphasized that this term is used in extremely different areas of science, from medicine to international relations. Moreover, each area has its own specific approach to this concept. Risk is incorporated into so many different disciplines that it is not surprising that it is defined again in very different ways.

Approaches to the concept risk are extremely different, but they have something in common. Risk is inherent in the choice and can essentially influence the decision made about the various options. In addition, risk suggests that options can be made according to a meaningful hierarchy of preferences. Finally, risk has to do with the distribution of the outcomes of a decision and how they matter to the person or people making the decision.

This paper proposes a possible approach to solving this problem.

In case of risk, we are faced with at least two cardinal problems. The first is the very risk... The second is in his subjective assessment, which in itself is also risk... The latter circumstance is by no means always taken into account by researchers.

The classic idea of risk associated with the possibility of losses as a result of one reason or another. Another approach is that losses must be synchronized with the probability of gains. This view has become dominant in Western economics since sometime in the early 21st century.

At the same time, there are significant differences in approaches to risk within the framework of different fields of science. In microeconomics, for example, risk usually determined by the possibility of negative results. In other words, risk is defined as a low probability of success and a high price for the latter.

Most definitions risk unites what the concept itself risk combines events, consequences and opportunities, and uncertainty is expressed through probability. In this case, the last factor of the listed ones is very important.

There are basically two ways to interpret the probability in the domain risk... According to the first, probability is understood as a relatively frequent repetition of events. According to the second, probability is a subjective measurement of uncertainty about future events and consequences, which is considered through the prism of an expert's position and is based on existing information and knowledge. Thus, probability refers to a subjective or informative assessment of itself.

If we follow the first definition, then we generate expectations of the laid down “true risk". However, this expectation is uncertain because there can be a very large discrepancy between it and the actual risk parameters.

Variations in the results of an experiment that, for example, generates a true value for probability, often refers to random uncertainty.

In the case of the second definition, we are faced with the likelihood of uncertainty estimates that are not directly related to correct certainty. An estimate of the probability in this case always exists on the knowledge of the prerequisites.

The term “subjective likelihood” is often problematic when used in real life because the term “subjective” does not seem scientific. In principle, it can be replaced by the concept of "probability based on knowledge". Moreover, probabilities are used as tools in order to express uncertainties.

Risk is defined in different areas of science (and sometimes in the same) in different ways, but the key definitions again boil down to uncertainty about the achievement of goals or about potential losses, as well as incomplete control over the implementation of decisions. ... Probably, here we should also add uncertainty in the specific definition of a specific risk, which is usually overlooked by researchers.

In common practice risk associated with something negative, with the possibility of loss. For example, it is believed that risk Is any event that can have a negative impact on the objectives of the organization. Generally the concept risk in the overwhelming majority of cases, it is associated with the possibility of loss or damage arising from the activities of organizations or the human factor.

In doing so, it is important to pay attention to certain changes. So, before 1997, all official published standards for managing economic risk in the United States used only negative definitions. risk... This was not a dominant, but an absolute trend. In fact, these definitions were synonymous with concepts such as danger, threat, loss, etc. In them risk was seen as uncertainty that can have a negative, undesirable effect on one or more objects. Thus, risk was seen as equivalent to threat.

However, since 1997, publications began to appear that either offered a neutral definition risk as an uncertainty that can affect one or more objects (where the type of impact has not been determined), or a broader definition, including the disadvantages and advantages of risk. In other words, it was about risk, which can have a positive or negative effect on one or many objects. Hence, for example, the following definition, which can be considered not only relatively short, but also weighted: risk- it is "a condition in which there is a possibility of deviation from the desired result that is expected or hoped for."

As a result, since about 2000, a clear majority of newly published or republished official standards related to governance risk in economics and finance, unambiguously considered risk as including not only threats, but also opportunities. At the same time, it should be borne in mind that in some scientific publications and after 2000 in the definition risks references were made to previous official publications (in this case, reference was made to one of the works of the British Banking Association in 1999).

At present, the point of view looks more modern in the economic literature, according to which some risks lead to breakthroughs or benefits, while others have purely negative consequences. In general, the prevailing opinion is that risk is an event associated with a hazardous process that may or may not happen. Moreover, three outcomes are possible: losses, profits and no changes.

However, this remark applies only to economics.

Concept risk often used in conjunction with the term uncertainty... The known distinction between risk and Frank Knight's uncertainty boils down to the fact that risk is a calculated uncertainty. This provision has been criticized on several occasions.

Risk often isolated from uncertainty due to the difference between the inability to quantify uncertainties and the computable nature risks based on the possibility of probabilistic knowledge. Other researchers reject this point of view, noting that actual practitioners in this area do not actually distinguish between risk and uncertainty in this area. Risk and uncertainties are not two different kinds of objects. Uncertainties become risks how soon they appear in the field of management.

The emphasis on whether uncertainty is subjective or objective seems to be inappropriate for some researchers. Both are necessary for the risk to exist. For example, a person jumping out of an airplane without a parachute does not face any risk, since he will certainly die (no uncertainty).

In the literature, some points are highlighted that unite risk with uncertainty.

Risk refers to uncertainty about the severity of the consequences or outcomes of activities related to human values.

Risk has a direct bearing on the uncertainty of the result, actions and events.

Risk it is a situation or event when something related to human value (including the people themselves) is in question and when the result is not determined.

Risk it is an indeterminate consequence of an event or action in terms of human worth.

Risk equals a combination of two measurements of events or consequences and associated uncertainties.

Risk is uncertainty about the consequences (or outcome) of an action in terms of human value.

Risk exists in any situation where there is uncertainty. And even more so, when the stakes are high or the potential winnings are large.

We also note the combinations risk with different conditions.

Risk and probability. While certain definitions of risk focus only on the possibility of a specific event occurring, more comprehensive definitions include both the possibility of a specific event and its consequences. For example, the possibility of a serious earthquake may be small, but its consequences will be so catastrophic that it will qualify as a very high risk event.

Risk and the threat. This mapping is done in some disciplines. A threat is, in principle, an event with a low probability, but with very large negative consequences, when analysts may not be able to assess the likelihood. Risk, on the other hand, is defined as a high probability event when sufficient information is available to estimate both the likelihood and the consequences.

Some definitions risk tend to focus only on the downside of scenarios, while others look at all the variety risk.

It must be emphasized that risk in different industries it is customary to define in different ways. For example, the definition risk in technology looks like a product of the probability of an event, which is considered undesirable and an estimate of the expected damage from the event. Against, risk in finance, it is defined in terms of the variability of the return on investment, even when the return is positive.

As noted in the literature, in general, the approach to the definition of the term risk in different areas of knowledge can be expressed in several ways.

- Risk is equivalent to possible losses.

- Risk is tantamount to possible harm.

- Risk Is the probability of an adverse outcome.

- Risk Is a measurement of the likelihood and severity of an adverse effect

- Risk it is a combination of the likelihood and severity of the consequences

- Risk is equal to the trinity of the scenario, the likelihood of the scenario and the consequences of this scenario

- Risk it is a two-way combination of events / consequences and associated uncertainties.

- Risk refers to the uncertainty of outcome, actions and events

- Risk it is an undefined consequence of an event or action related to human values.

There are other approaches to understanding risk... They are usually associated with economic risk and the field of decision analysis. In the first case, we are talking about expected losses. The calculation includes results and consequences on the one hand, as well as utility. The expected benefit or harm provides the basis for rational choices. According to this definition, the preferences of decision makers are part of the concept risk... The result is a confusion of scientific assessments of utility or benefit uncertainties with decision makers' preferences for different meanings of benefit and associated opportunities. There is a point of view that this position related to preferences and values should not be part of the concept of risk and risk assessment. There is, of course, a high level of arbitrariness in the choice of what appears to be the winners, and many decision makers are reluctant to determine the benefits, as this reduces their flexibility in weighing different points in specific cases. Risk can also be described in the case when decision-makers are unable or unwilling to determine what exactly they see the benefit.

Another definition is related to situations when it comes to objective probabilities for the randomness that appears to decision makers. In the economic literature, traditionally, a distinction is made between an objective situation and uncertainty, which in one way or another is based on a subjective basis. Although this definition is often used, it is rarely applied in practice. It violates intuitive interpretation risk which refers to situations of uncertainty and lack of predictability. Moreover, it does not generally match the overwhelming majority of definitions of risk.

Lately risk is increasingly seen as a combination of threat and opportunity. Those who want big returns must be prepared to deal with a high percentage of risk. Connection between risk and the return on investment is most visible when dealing with investment choices. The stock market is more dangerous than investing in bonds, but it can bring big profits. It is clear that the level decision risk is key to business success. However, this approach is characteristic only of economic literature. One of the most fundamental ideas in existence is that the outcome of decisions should be judged in terms of win or loss, and not in terms of overall profit.

A more general solution is expressed in a different perspective: risk Is the likelihood of an accident related to financial loss or death. However, here, too, there is a tendency to understand that risk Is always a threat.

Another approach missed by most authors is that risk it is the level of difference between the result and the expected. In this case, we are talking about an unconventional point of view, which, however, deserves attention.

The conclusions from the above are obvious.

First, a general understanding of the concept risk no. Also, there are no symptoms of approaching it. This is largely due, it seems to me, to the fact that this concept is used in various fields of knowledge and action. For example, in medicine, the potential damage is calculated, but the gain is only implied, while in economics they try to calculate in advance both. In many areas of contact with respect to the term risk Hardly ever.

Secondly, from my point of view, the literature is dominated by the approach of theorists rather than practitioners. In principle, this is natural, but hence the inevitable problems with the latter's understanding of the essence of the ideas being discussed.

Thirdly, it can be assumed that in the foreseeable future, further debates regarding this concept, for the reasons indicated above, will not lead to a radical change in the current situation.

From my point of view, the classic since Knight's opposition of risk and uncertainty does not work practically anywhere. Actually risk grows out of uncertainty. No uncertainty, no risk.

Grade risk includes analysis risk and the actual assessment risk... In other words, the estimate risk itself represents risk because it always deals with uncertainty, and therefore the possibility of error.

It seems to me that the tendency that has emerged in the last decade and a half to stipulate that risk is the dual unity of gain and loss, on the one hand, is completely fair, but on the other, under current conditions, it leads nowhere. In the vast majority of languages of the world risk always associated with the possibility of loss. In the overwhelming majority of spheres of science, too. It is possible that at the present stage, for further progress, it is better to fix this circumstance, albeit for a while.

It seems to me that from the point of view of current practice, talking about risk can only be instrumental and situational. Subsequently, the circumstances and progress of science can, of course, change. However, this can only be over time.

Aven T. Quantitative risk assessment: The scientific platform. Cambridge: Cambridge university press, 2011.

Malz A.M. Financial risk management: Models, history and institution. Hoboken (N.J.): John Wiley & Sons, 2011, P. 34; Wunnicke B., Wilson D. Corporate financial risk management: Practical techniques of financial engineering, Hoboken: Wiley, 1992

Condamin L., Louisot J.-P., Naïm P. Risk quantificatioin: Management, diagnosis & hedging. The Atrium: John Wiley & Sons, 2006. P. 196

Tarantino A. Essential of risk management in finance. Hoboken (N.J.): John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2011. P. 2

Gallati R. Risk management and capital adequacy. New York: McGrow-Hill companies Inc., 2003. P. 8

Hillson D. and Webster Murrey-A. Understanding and managing risk attitude. Aldershot: Gower publishing Ltd, 2007. P. 6

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Fabozzi F. Drake P.P. Finance: Capital markets, financial management and investment management. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2009. P. 345

Bocharov E.P., Aleksentseva O.N., Ermoshin D.V. Risk Assessment of Industrial Enterprises Based on Simulation Modeling // Applied Informatics. - 2008. - No. 1 (13). - P. 16

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Knight F. Decree. op.

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Aven T., Vinnem J.E. Risk management with applications from the offshore petroleum industry. London: Springer-Verlag London limited, 2001.

McDermott R. Risk-taking in international politics: Prospect theory in American foreign policy. Ann Arbor: The university of Michigan press, 2001. P. 3

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Knight F. Decree. op.

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Experts from various industries in messages and reports write about the terms "hazard" and "risk".

In the scientific literature, they write about different interpretations of the term "risk". The term "risk" has several meanings. Terms differ in content. Risk in insurance terminology is used to denote the subject of insurance of an industrial enterprise or company, an insured event of a flood, fire, explosion, the sum insured of a hazard in monetary terms, or a collective term to denote unwanted and uncertain events. Economists and statisticians who are faced with these questions understand risk as a measure of the possible consequences that will manifest themselves at some point in the future. In the psychological dictionary, risk is an action aimed at an attractive goal, the achievement of which is associated with elements of danger, the threat of loss, a situational characteristic of activity, consisting of uncertainty and adverse consequences, determined by a combination of the probability and magnitude of adverse consequences. Several definitions of the term describe risk as the occurrence of an accident. Accidents: danger, accident, disaster. Accidents occur under certain conditions of production or the atmospheric environment surrounding a person. Definitions as the meaning of the subject's vigorous activity, the objective properties of the environment. The general in all the above concepts includes an event. There will be an unwanted event or there will be no unwanted event. Usually, a probabilistic measure of man-made occurrences and natural phenomena accompanied by the emergence, formation and action of hazards caused by this social economic and technological harm. Risk is usually a probabilistic measure of the occurrence of man-made or natural phenomena, accompanied by the emergence, formation and action of hazards, caused by this social, economic, environmental types of damage and harm ... Risk is understood as the expected purity or probability of occurrence of hazards of a certain category, the amount of damage, harm from an undesirable event, some combination of values.

Risk is actually a measure of danger. Use the concept of the degree of risk.

The concept of the degree of risk (Level of risk) does not differ from the concept of risk.

The degree of risk is a measurable quantity.

The term risk is currently used in hazard analysis and safety management (process risk) and production.

The formation of dangerous and emergency situations is the result of a certain set of risk factors generated by the corresponding sources.

With regard to the safety of life, such an event can be the death of a person, an accident or disaster of a technical system or device, pollution or deterioration of the ecological system, the death of a group of people, an increase in the death rate of the population, an increase in safety costs.

Each undesirable event can occur in relation to a certain victim - an object of risk.

Distinguish between individual, technical, environmental, social and economic risk.

Types of risk.

Technical. Technical systems and facilities. Violation of operating rules and technical systems and facilities. Accident, explosion, disaster, fire. Anthropogenic ecological disasters, technical disasters.

Ecological. Ecological systems. Anthropogenic interference with the natural environment, man-made emergencies. Anthropogenic, environmental disasters, natural disasters.

Social. Social groups. Emergency. Decreased quality of life. Group injuries. Diseases. Death of people. Increase in mortality.

Economic. Material resources. Increased production hazard. Increased hazard to the natural environment. Increased security costs. Damage from insufficient security.

Individual. Person. Human living conditions. Diseases. Injury. Disability. Death.

Individual risk is due to the likelihood of potential hazards realizing in the event of hazardous situations. It can be determined by the number of realized risk factors:

R - individual risk;

P is the number of victims who died per unit time t from a certain risk factor f,

W is the number of people exposed to the risk factor f per unit of time t.

Source of individual risk. The most common risk factor for death.

The internal environment of the human body. Aging.

Victimity. A victim of potential hazards.

Social ecology. Poor quality air. Water. Food. Viral infections. Household injuries. Fires.

Professional activity. Dangerous and harmful production factors.

Transport links. Accidents and disasters of vehicles. Collision with a human transport. Crash. Catastrophe.

Non-professional activities. Sport.

Social environment. Armed conflict. Murder.

The surrounding natural environment. Earthquake. Eruption. Floods, landslides, hurricanes and other natural disasters.

Individual risk. A person is at risk in unfavorable environmental conditions of the atmospheric environment.

Comprehensive indicator of the reliability of the elements of the technosphere. It expresses the likelihood of an accident or disaster during the operation of machines, mechanisms, implementation of technological processes, construction, operation of buildings

R T ‗ ΔT (t) _

Technical risk

T is the number of accidents per unit of time t on identical technical systems and objects

T is the number of identical technical systems and objects subject to a common factor.

Sources and factors of technical risk f.

Sources and factors of technical risk.

The number of accidents per unit of time t at systems and objects.

Individual risk can be voluntary if it is caused by human activity.

The choice of design schemes and principles of operation of technical systems.

Errors in determining operational loads. Wrong choice of construction materials. Insufficient safety margin. Lack of technical security equipment in projects. Poor finishing of structures. Technologies. Safety Criteria Documentation. Serial production of unsafe equipment. Deviation from the specified chemical materials. Insufficient accuracy of structural dimensions. Violation of the modes of thermal and chemical - thermal treatment of parts. Violation of the regulations for the assembly and mantage of structures and machines. Violation of the rules for the safe operation of technical systems.

Use of equipment for other purposes. Violation of passport design modes, operation. Untimely preventive examinations and repairs. Violations of the requirements for transportation and storage. Staff errors. Weak skills of action in a difficult situation. Inability to evaluate information about the state of the process. Poor knowledge of the essence of the ongoing process. Lack of composure under stress. Indiscipline.

Environmental risk.

Environmental risk expresses the likelihood of an environmental disaster, catastrophe, disruption of the further normal functioning and existence of ecological systems and objects as a result of anthropogenic interference in the natural environment or natural disaster.

Unwanted events of environmental risk both directly in the zones of intervention and beyond:

Ro = environmental risk

About the number of anthropogenic technological catastrophes and natural disasters per unit time t

The number of potential sources of environmental damage in the area under consideration

The scale of the environmental risk Rom is estimated by the percentage ratio of the area of crisis or catastrophic territories to the total area of the biogeocenosis under consideration.

Ro m = Δ S 100

An additional indirect criterion of environmental risk can be the integral indicator of the environmental friendliness of the territory of the enterprise, correlated with the dynamics of population density (number of employees):

OT = + ΔX + ΔM (t) S

O T ═ ΔX + -Δ M (t) S

From the level of environmental friendliness of the territory.

S is the area of the study area.

Sources and factors of social risk.

Urbanization of ecologically unstable territories. Settlement of people in areas of possible formation of increased seismicity. Industrial technologies and objects of danger. Accidents at nuclear power plants, thermal power plants, chemical plants, product pipelines. Technogenic pollution of the environment. Social and military conflicts.

Combat action. The use of weapons of mass destruction. Epidemics.

The spread of viral infections. Unsatisfactory living conditions.

Economic risk is determined by the ratio of benefits and harm received by society from the considered type of activity.

Bibliography

1. "Life safety: Safety through training" 2008 Moscow.

Risk- this is the possibility of an unfavorable situation or an unsuccessful outcome of production and economic or any other activity.

Adverse situation or unsuccessful outcome in this case, there may be:

lost profit;
loss (loss of own funds);
no result (no profit, no loss);
shortfall in income or profit;
an event that may lead to losses or loss of income in the future.

Main characteristics of risks

Economic nature. Risk is characterized as an economic category, occupying a certain place in the system of economic concepts associated with the implementation of the economic process of the enterprise. It manifests itself in the field of economic activity of the enterprise, is directly related to the formation of its profits and is often characterized by possible economic consequences in the process of implementation.

Objectivity of manifestation. Risk is an objective phenomenon in the activities of an enterprise, i.e. accompanies everything and all directions of his activity. Despite the fact that a number of risk parameters depend on subjective management decisions, the objective nature of its manifestation remains unchanged.

The likelihood of occurrence. It manifests itself in the fact that a risk event may or may not occur in the process of carrying out the financial and economic activities of the enterprise. The degree of this probability is determined by the action of both objective and subjective factors, however, the probabilistic nature of financial risk is its constant characteristic.

Uncertainty of consequences. The consequences of a financial and business transaction depend on the type of risk and can fluctuate within a fairly significant range. In other words, the risk can be accompanied by both financial losses for the enterprise and the formation of its additional income. This characteristic of risk means the indeterminacy (lack of regularity in the appearance) of its financial results, primarily the level of profitability of the operations performed.

The expected adverse effects. Although the consequences of the manifestation of risk can be characterized by both negative and positive indicators of the performance of financial and economic activities, the risk in business practice is characterized and measured by the level of possible adverse consequences. This is due to the fact that a number of consequences of risk determine the loss of not only income, but also the capital of the enterprise, which leads to bankruptcy (that is, to irreversible negative consequences for its activities).

Level variability. The level of risk typical for a particular operation or for a certain line of business of an enterprise is not constant. It changes over time (depends on the duration of the operation, since the time factor has an independent effect on the level of risk, manifested through the level of liquidity of the invested funds, the uncertainty of the movement of the interest rate on, etc.) and under the influence of other objective and subjective factors which are in constant dynamics.

The subjectivity of the assessment. Despite the fact that risk as an economic phenomenon has an objective nature, its estimated indicator - the level of risk - is subjective. This subjectivity (unequal assessment of this objective phenomenon) is determined by different levels of completeness and reliability of the information base, qualifications of financial managers, their experience in the field of risk management and other factors.

Risk classification

Types of risks by type of hazard:

Technogenic risks- these are the risks associated with human economic activities (for example, environmental pollution).
Natural risks- these are risks that do not depend on human activities (for example, an earthquake).
Mixed risks- these are risks that are events, but associated with human economic activities (for example, a landslide associated with construction work).

Types of risks by areas of manifestation:

Political risks- these are the risks of direct losses and losses or loss of profit due to unfavorable changes in the political situation in the state or actions of local authorities.
Social risks Are the risks associated with social crises.
Environmental risks- these are risks associated with the likelihood of civil liability for damage to the environment, as well as the life and health of third parties.
Commercial risks- these are the risks of economic losses arising in any commercial, production and economic activity. Commercial risks include financial risks (associated with the implementation of financial transactions) and production risks (associated with the production of products (works, services), the implementation of any types of production activities).
Professional risks- these are the risks associated with the performance of professional duties (for example, the risks associated with the professional activities of doctors, notaries, etc.).

Types of risks, if possible, foreseeable:

Forecasted risks- these are risks associated with the cyclical development of the economy, changing stages of the financial market conjuncture, predictable development of competition, etc. The predictability of risks is relative, since forecasting with a 100% result excludes the phenomenon under consideration from the risk category. For example, inflationary risk, interest rate risk and some of their other types.
Unpredictable risks- these are risks characterized by complete unpredictability of manifestation. For example, force majeure risks, tax risk, etc.

According to this classification criterion, risks are also divided into regulated and unregulated within the enterprise.

Types of risks by sources of occurrence:

External (systematic or market) risk- this is a risk that does not depend on the activities of the enterprise. This risk arises when certain stages of the economic cycle change, changes in the financial market conditions and in a number of other cases that the company cannot influence in its activities. This group of risks can include inflation risk, interest rate risk, currency risk, tax risk.
Internal (unsystematic or specific) risk Is a risk that depends on the activities of a particular enterprise. It can be associated with unskilled financial management, ineffective structure of assets and capital, excessive adherence to risky (aggressive) operations with a high rate of return, underestimation of business partners and other factors, the negative consequences of which can be largely prevented through effective risk management.

Types of risks by the amount of possible damage:

Acceptable risk- this is a risk, losses for which do not exceed the estimated amount of profit for the operation being carried out.
Critical risk- this is a risk, losses for which do not exceed the estimated amount of gross income from the operation being carried out.
Catastrophic risk- this is a risk, losses for which are determined by partial or complete loss of equity capital (may be accompanied by a loss of borrowed capital).

Types of risks in terms of the complexity of the study:

Simple risk characterizes the type of risk that is not subdivided into its individual subspecies. For example, inflationary risk.
Complex risk characterizes the type of risk, which consists of a complex of subspecies. For example, investment risk (the risk of an investment project and the risk of a specific financial instrument).

Types of risks by financial implications:

Risk that only entails economic losses carries only negative consequences (loss of income or capital).
Lost profit risk characterizes a situation when an enterprise, due to the existing objective and subjective reasons, cannot carry out the planned operation (for example, if the credit rating is downgraded, the enterprise cannot get the necessary loan).
The risk entailing both economic losses and additional income (« speculative financial risk "), is inherent, as a rule, in speculative financial transactions (for example, the risk of realizing a real investment project, the profitability of which in the operational stage may be lower or higher than the calculated level).

Types of risks by the nature of manifestation over time:

Permanent risk characteristic for the entire period of the operation and is associated with the action of constant factors. For example, interest rate risk, foreign exchange risk, etc.
Temporary risk characterizes the risk, which is of a permanent nature, arising only at certain stages of the implementation of a financial transaction. For example, the risk of the company's insolvency.

Types of risks, if possible, insurance:

Insured risks- these are risks that can be transferred through external insurance to the relevant insurance organizations.
Insurable risks- these are risks for which there is no supply of relevant insurance products in the insurance market.

The composition of the risks of these two groups under consideration is very mobile and is associated not only with the possibility of predicting them, but also with the effectiveness of the implementation of certain types of insurance operations in specific economic conditions under the established forms of state regulation of insurance activities.

Types of risks by frequency of implementation:

High risks- these are risks that are characterized by a high frequency of damage.
Medium risks- these are risks, which are characterized by an average frequency of damage.
Small risks- these are risks, which are characterized by a low probability of damage occurring.

Specialists of various industries in their messages constantly operate not only with the definition of "danger", but also with such a term as "risk". What all views have in common is that risk includes uncertainty about whether an undesirable event will occur and whether an adverse condition will occur. Note that in accordance with modern views, risk is usually interpreted as a probabilistic measure of the occurrence of man-made or natural phenomena, accompanied by the emergence, formation and action of hazards and the resulting social, economic, environmental and other types of damage and harm.

Risk should be understood as the expected frequency or probability of occurrence of hazards of a certain class, or the amount of possible damage (loss, harm) from an undesirable event, or some combination of these values.

The use of the concept of risk, thus, allows us to transfer the hazard to the category of measurable categories. Risk is, in fact, a measure of danger. The concept of "degree of risk" is often used, which in fact does not differ from the concept of risk, but only emphasizes that we are talking about a measurable value. All the named (or similar) interpretations of the term "risk" are currently used in the analysis of hazards and safety management (risk) of technological processes and production in general.

For the most part, mining and technical factors are parameters of technological schemes for conducting work in open pits (face - excavator - dump truck - route - unloading point) and their values for various technological schemes are of a dynamic nature. It is obvious that the risk of non-fulfillment of the shift plan by the excavator-automobile complex will depend on the risk of a decrease in productivity for each model of equipment on a specific technological scheme, taking into account a possible decrease in productivity due to the poor technical condition of the equipment. This means that, knowing in advance the combination of equipment models in technological schemes (excavator-dump truck combination), it is possible to calculate the expected level of risk of non-fulfillment of shift tasks for these equipment models, and therefore, to determine the possible performance of the complex as a whole. To do this, it is necessary to know the maximum permissible level of risk, which can be determined by the results of technical and economic calculations in the conditions of a particular enterprise, or, according to the recommendations of A.I. Arsentieva, accept on the basis of the fear function, based on the psychological aspects of decision-making. Thus, having established the permissible level of risk, it is possible to control the performance of the excavator-automobile complex in the planning process and upon obtaining the calculated performance corresponding to the level of risk higher than the maximum permissible indicator, to take into account lower performance values corresponding to a lower level of risk.

Each undesirable event can occur in relation to a certain victim - an object of risk. The ratio of risk objects and undesirable events makes it possible to distinguish individual, technical, environmental, social and economic risks. Each type of it is determined by characteristic sources and risk factors, the classification and characteristics of which are given in table 4.1.

Table 4.1 - Classification and characteristics of types of risk

Risk type	Risk object	Source of risk	Unwanted event
Individual	Person	Human living conditions	Disease, injury, disability, death
Technical	Technical systems and facilities	Technical imperfection, violation of the rules for the operation of technical systems and facilities	Accident, explosion, disaster, fire, destruction
Ecological	Ecological systems	Anthropogenic interference with the natural environment, man-made emergencies	Anthropogenic environmental disasters, natural disasters
Social	Social groups	Emergency, reduced quality of life	Group injuries, diseases, deaths, increased mortality
Economic	Material resources	Increased hazard to production or the natural environment	Increased security costs, damage from insufficient security

Table 4.1 shows that the classification is subdivided into five risks. Each risk has its own objects. The object of individual risk is a person. The concept of individual risk is understood as the likelihood of injury to an individual within a certain period of time as a result of exposure to the investigated hazards during the reaction of an unfavorable random event, taking into account the likelihood of her being in the affected area. Also, individual risk is considered as a basic concept, firstly, in connection with the priority of human life as the highest value, and secondly, due to the fact that it is the individual risk that can be assessed for large samples with a sufficient level of reliability, which makes it possible to determine other important risk categories in hazard analysis and establish acceptable and unacceptable risk levels. The most common factors of individual risk are accidents and disasters of vehicles, their collision with a person, poor-quality air, viral infections, and domestic injuries.

The object of technical risk is technical systems and facilities. This type of risk poses a threat of equipment failures, a decrease in the technical reliability of electricity and heat supply and interruptions in the supply of energy to consumers. Technological processes at energy enterprises are highly complex, which requires highly qualified and, therefore, very expensive operating, repair and management personnel. Also, technical risk is the danger of technical disasters that cause significant damage to nature, people and production. As an example of the most common technical risk factors, one can cite the wrong choice of directions for the development of technology and technology according to safety criteria, poor-quality finishing of structures, the use of equipment for other purposes, untimely preventive inspections and repairs, the absence of technical safety equipment in projects.

Before starting the organization of any production or other project of economic activity, an environmental risk assessment is carried out. Environmental risks are assessed through scientific research that combines factual research and scientific predictions. The result is a work that allows us to understand the subsequent degree of impact on a given area of polluting factors or other agents harmful to nature, which the implementation of this project will bring with it. Environmental risk is a serious scientific work that is carried out exclusively by professional environmentalists. An incorrect assessment of environmental risk can lead to irreversible consequences, both for a separate area and for the region as a whole. Sources and factors of environmental risk are the formation of artificial reservoirs, volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, floods, hurricanes, as well as pollution of water bodies, atmospheric air with harmful substances, soil - industrial waste.

Social risk is characterized by such factors as the settlement of people in areas of possible flooding, an increase in the seismicity of the region, volcanic eruptions, and technogenic pollution of the environment. There are two groups social risk factors: predictable (actions of which can be expected, evaluated, they are sufficiently studied by science, amenable to control) and unforeseen (it is not possible to designate which at the a priori stage of risk analysis, some may arise for the first time; this group of risks is the most difficult to manage).

The object of economic risk is material resources. In international trade, there is a threat of losses for any company that incurs expenses in one currency and receives income in another. Any changes in exchange rates may impair or improve the financial and market position of the company. Economic risks also arise if the company plans to conclude separate contracts or conduct transactions in the future. Economic risks are long-term and potentially the most dangerous manifestations of risks.

Individual risk due to the likelihood of the realization of potential hazards in the event of hazardous situations. It can be determined by the number of realized risk factors:

Where is the individual risk; (t)- the number of victims per unit of time t from

a specific risk factor; - the number of people exposed to the relevant risk factor per unit of time t;

Environmental risk expresses the likelihood of an ecological disaster, catastrophe, disruption of further normal functioning and existence of ecological systems and objects as a result of anthropogenic interference in the natural environment or natural disaster. Unwanted events of environmental risk can manifest themselves both directly in the zones of intervention, and beyond them:

Where is the environmental risk; - the number of anthropogenic environmental disasters and natural disasters per unit of time t; - the number of potential sources of environmental damage in the area under consideration;

Social risk characterizes the scale and severity of the negative consequences of emergencies, as well as various kinds of phenomena and transformations that reduce the quality of life of people. Essentially, it is a risk to a group or community of people. It can be assessed, for example, by the dynamics of mortality calculated per 1000 people:

Where is the economic risk, % ; - harm to society from the considered type of activity; - benefit;

Technical risk - a comprehensive indicator of the reliability of the elements of the technosphere. It expresses the likelihood of an accident or disaster during the operation of machines, mechanisms, implementation of technological processes, construction and operation of buildings and structures:

Where is the technical risk; - the number of accidents per unit of time t on identical technical systems and facilities; - the number of identical technical systems and facilities subject to a common risk factor;

Sources and factors of technical risk: erroneous choice of directions for the development of technology and technology according to safety criteria, the use of technology for other purposes, violation of the requirements for transportation and storage, untimely preventive inspections and repairs of technical systems, violation of the regulations for the assembly and installation of structures and machines.

Risk is an inherent and indispensable factor. Therefore, it is necessary to calculate the acceptable risk.

Acceptable risk combines technical, environmental, social aspects and represents a certain compromise between an acceptable level of safety and economic possibilities of achieving it, i.e. we can talk about reducing individual, technical or environmental risk, but we must not forget about how much you have to pay for this and what the resulting social risk will be.

Any decision made for a career contains an element of uncertainty and is therefore associated with risk. It is believed that risk is the danger of non-fulfillment of decisions made under conditions of uncertainty in the initial data or (in another edition) acting at random in the hope of a happy outcome. Level (measure) of risk:

Where is the probability of the decision being fulfilled by factor A.

where and - the risk of non-confirmation of geological and technical and economic data, respectively.

Suppose the exponent A, on which you need to make a decision, due to uncertainty changes from A 0 before A 5 with mathematical expectation A m and has a normal distribution (Figure 4.1). If a decision is made A i(dot F), then the level of risk is:

Where S i- the area under the distribution curve to the left of the accepted point; S o Is the total area under the distribution curve ( S o = 1)

S i

-3s

-2s

-s

+ s

+ 2s

+ 3s

A, m 3 / year m 3 / year

A 1

A 2

A 3

A 4

A 5

A m

A i

e i

A 0

There are two types of risk. There is a risk associated with boundary damage. For example, the side of a quarry may stand or collapse, a missile may or may not hit a target, etc. The second type of risk is associated with monotonous changes in the expected outcome, such as the productivity of a pit or ore reserves. If the level of risk is too high, then the quarry will not stop working, but will not reach the specified productivity. With an overestimated level of risk when assessing ore reserves, mining will not stop, but at a given horizon it may not be in the expected volume.

Risk is a key characteristic of the modern world. It manifests itself at different levels and in different forms. Therefore, before starting to study the problems associated with the organization and functioning of insurance, it is necessary to discuss more fundamental doctrines, in particular the concept of risk. A detailed analysis of the concept of "risk" will allow us to explore ways to overcome the consequences of its implementation, which is summarized in the ideas underlying the risk management system (risk management). In this regard, insurance can be considered, although very important, but still as one of many alternative methods of risk management. This logic will help to better understand the role and place of insurance as a public institution, as well as its features as a specific area of business.

RISK

As a result of studying this chapter, the student should have an idea of:

what is risk and what are its structural characteristics;
what is economic risk and what is its specificity;
what classifications of risks are possible and by what characteristics;
what are the risk classification criteria applied for each of the risk characteristics;
what is meant by homogeneity of risks.

Keywords: risk, uncertainty, structural characteristics of risk, hazard, risk exposure, vulnerability, interaction with other risks, economic risk, risk classification criteria, homogeneity of risks.

Risk concept

What is risk?

At first glance, the question put in the title of this subparagraph seems to be extremely controversial, since risks and the associated uncertainty constantly surround us in reality. Therefore, we intuitively understand the meaning of these concepts without additional explanations from knowledgeable people, an explanatory dictionary or textbooks. It is enough to watch the news programs on TV to realize that natural and man-made disasters are constantly occurring in the world. They bring death and suffering to people, lead to the destruction and destruction of material objects, cause direct and indirect financial losses.

Even in everyday life, people are at risk. Among them are the risks of morbidity, mortality, dismissal from work, etc. When these events occur, both non-economic consequences (for example, health loss due to illness or depression as a result of job loss) and economic damage can arise. The latter can be divided into direct (treatment costs, etc.) and indirect (in particular, loss of earnings due to illness).

Making decisions about everyday things every day, each of us is faced with uncertainty. So, when planning a daily trip to work, it is natural to take into account the possible uncertainty associated with the absence or violation of the public transport schedule, or, in the case of using a personal car, the likely occurrence of traffic jams.

Risk and uncertainty are even more related to business. The managers of each company must make daily decisions about sales, purchases, organization of work of production and other departments of the company. At the same time, they are faced with changes in market conditions, actions of competitors, changing consumer preferences, environmental restrictions, legislative features and other factors. Moreover, the increasing complexity of business practices makes it critical to account for business risk and uncertainty.

The activities of the state are also associated with the emergence and implementation of various risks. One of the functions of the state as a public institution in general is to protect the population from certain types of risks associated with the peculiarities of social interaction of citizens (security, defense, etc.). In addition, state institutions themselves may face the uncertainty of their functioning.

Note!

Risk and uncertainty constantly surround us in reality.

In connection with the above, the concepts of "risk" and "uncertainty" are often used in everyday speech. So, according to the frequency dictionaries of the Russian language, these and related words are used more often than the word "cat".

However, such a widespread use of these words also causes problems with a clear definition of these concepts, since they, apparently, can be understood in different ways by different people.

Indeed, the word "risk" in relation to business can mean completely different things. In particular, risk can mean:

the potential (danger) of the occurrence of a probable event or a set of events causing certain material damage;
the possibility of receiving less profit or income;
characteristics of the manifestation of damage - the frequency of occurrence and (or) the severity (size) of the damage;
the insured object that may be damaged.

Thus, the words "risk" and "uncertainty" are overloaded with different meanings, which makes it difficult to understand them unambiguously. Let's consider these concepts in more detail.