Russian wheat received support. Agro2b - an information and analytical portal in the field of agriculture, a trading platform, a social network for farmers Forecast for the grain harvest per year

) updated the forecast for the grain harvest this year, increasing it by 2.5 million tons to 131-134 million tons. Previous estimates announced last week were at the level of 128.5-131.5 million tons. the absence of negative weather "surprises" in the eastern regions of the country, analysts say. As explained “ Agroinvestor" leading expert ICAR Evgeny Zaitsev, high estimates of production are based on the results of the main producing regions, where record yields were recorded. So, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, in the Rostov region the yield of grain and leguminous crops this year increased by 10% to 39.8 c / ha, in the Krasnodar Territory - by 4% to 62.9 c / ha, in the Stavropol Territory - by 2 % up to 43.3 c / ha. In the Ural Federal District, the yield is 19% higher than last year (21.8 c / ha), in the Siberian - about the level of 2016 (17.9 c / ha).

First of all, the increase in the expected gross harvest was due to wheat, the harvest of which ICAR forecasts in the range of 81-84 million tons (previous forecast - 79-82 million tons). In 2016, wheat production amounted to 73.3 million tons. At the same time, the estimate of wheat exports was raised from 30-32 million tons to 31-33 million tons. The total export of grain, according to experts ICAR, will amount to 41.5-44 million tons. "A further increase in the forecast for the export of wheat and grain in general seems unlikely due to infrastructural and other restrictions", - notes ICAR.

Analytical Center " Rusagrotrans"Also clarified the forecast for grain harvest this year. According to analysts, it will amount to 132.3 million tons against the previous estimate of 127-129 million tons.The indicator of wheat harvest has been increased from 78-80 million tons to 81.1 million tons, barley - from 18.5-19 million tons to 19 , 3 million tons, the forecast of corn production is kept at the level of 16.5 million tons. According to estimates “ Rusagrotrans", The grain harvest in the South and North Caucasus will grow by 3.4 million tons to 49.3 million tons compared to last year, in the Volga region - by 2.9 million tons to 27.4 million tons, in the Center - by 4, 3 million tons to 32.1 million tons, in Siberia - by 0.4 million tons to 15.5 million tons. At the same time, the forecast for grain exports remains at the level of 43 million tons, specified “ Agroinvestor"Head of the analytical center" Rusagrotrans»Igor Pavensky. "Taking into account peas and flour, export of up to 44.3 million tons is quite possible," he added.

Earlier, up to 130.7 million tons of grain (including 80.1 million tons of wheat, 19 million tons of barley and 16.3 million tons of corn), the analytical company “ ProZerno". “The maximum harvest in history was recorded in 1978, when 127.4 million tons were harvested. That is, even if we take into account the Crimea, 130 million tons will still exceed that record volume,” he said. Agroinvestor"CEO" ProZerno»Vladimir Petrichenko. Assessment of the analytical center " SovEkon"- 127.6 million tons, including wheat - 78.9 million tons, barley - 19.4 million tons, corn - 16.4 million tons, grain exports are projected at 44 million tons.

Ministry of Agriculture maintains its forecast at 110 million tons of grain. The head of the crop production department, Petr Chekmarev, explained such expectations by the fact that in a number of regions of Central Russia, the Volga region and the Urals, there is a sharp cooling, forecasters predict rainy weather, which may lead to a decrease in crop yields and difficulties in harvesting. However, experts consider the ministry's assessment too conservative. “Now the weather, rather, can affect the timing of harvesting, its complexity (the grain will crumble, they will not have time to harvest everything, etc.), as well as the quality of the grain,” Zaitsev believes.

By August 31, Russia had harvested 94.9 million tonnes of grain in the originally capitalized weight, grain and leguminous crops were harvested from 57.5% of the sown area. Wheat harvested 67.1 million tons, barley - 17.2 million tons, corn for grain - 232.8 thousand tons. According to the documents submitted to the Ministry by the regions, from emergencies 673 agricultural producers suffered this year, the declared area of \u200b\u200bdestruction of agricultural crops amounted to 188.8 thousand hectares, the damage at direct costs is estimated at 2 billion rubles.

The progress of the harvest and the high grain yield this year forced grain market experts to revise their previous forecasts of gross harvest. New estimates of the grain harvest are higher than last year's record of 120.7 million tons. But a high harvest threatens farmers with a drop in prices.

Experts of the analytical center CJSC "Rusagrotrans" raised the forecast of the gross harvest immediately to 127-129 million tons from the previous estimate of 118.3 million tons.

As Interfax was told in the center, the forecast for wheat harvest rose to 78-80 million tons from 74 million tons, barley - to 18.5-19 million tons from 18 million tons, corn - to 16-16.5 million tons from 15 , 5 million tons.

"It is clear that the forecast for grain harvest will be increased, and there are all the prerequisites for both wheat and corn," he told Interfax cEO center "ProZerno" Vladimir Petrichenko.

Now his forecast for the gross harvest is 122 million tons, including 74 million tons of wheat. The expert promised new estimates this week.

As V. Petrichenko explained, the reason for raising the forecast is, first of all, the high yield of grain and leguminous crops. "The yield this year will be a record, besides, the sown area has grown, the supply of grain will be greater," he said.

According to V. Petrichenko, yield records are based, in particular, on "an increase in the technological background of grain production: every year more funds are invested in the industry, which makes it possible to use quality seeds, plant protection products, effective equipment ".

According to the Ministry of Agriculture on August 14, the grain yield in the Russian Federation amounted to 40.3 c / ha against 33.1 c / ha as of the same date last year. In particular, in the central regions, the yield reached 45.2 c / ha against 37.4 c / ha a year earlier.

At the same time, V. Petrichenko noted that the high harvest was a catalyst for the fall in grain prices. Last week, a negative signal came from abroad. “The August forecast of the USDA (US Department of Agriculture - IF) of the world balances of grain and oilseeds produced an anti-bomb effect for the global market,” he said. ". Thus, the forecast for wheat harvest in the Russian Federation has been raised immediately by 5.5 million tons, to 77.5 million tons, in Ukraine - by 2.5 million tons, to 26.5 million tons.

Meanwhile, the forecast for wheat harvest in Australia, a major global grain producer and exporter, has not changed. Yield estimates for countries in the Western and Southern Hemispheres have even been lowered.

According to ProZerno, last week the largest drop in prices was noted on the 5th grade wheat market. In the center, prices for this grain fell by 550 rubles, to 6,717 rubles per ton, in the Chernozem and Volga regions - by 285-310 rubles, to 6,810 and 6,775 rubles, respectively, in the south - by 185 rubles, to 8,050 rubles, in the Urals - by 140 rubles, up to 7,013 rubles. In Siberia, where the mass harvesting will begin later - by 65 rubles, up to 7,133 rubles per ton.

The center became the leader in terms of the rate of decline in prices for wheat of 3 and 4 classes. Here it fell immediately by 285 rubles (up to 9,300 rubles) and by 315 rubles (up to 8,017 rubles), respectively. The fall in prices accelerated in other regions, with the exception of Siberia.

Barley and corn fell the most in the Volga region - by 240 and 350 rubles, to 6,763 and 7,700 rubles per ton, respectively.

"Prices will continue to go down," predicts Alexander Korbut, vice president of the Russian Grain Union.

“There is a lot of new grain, besides, there are carryover stocks,” he said. “Exports in August are good. True, it is difficult to speak about world prices - speculative factors may appear on the stock exchange, but the near term is still downward. world grain production is higher than the growth rate of its consumption. "

The Grain Union raised its forecast for grain harvest this year to 124 million tons, including wheat - up to 77.5-80 million tons. "But everything will depend on how the harvesting proceeds in Siberia. It happens that snow falls there in the last week of August. The further we go with the growing season, the greater the risks," A. Korbut said.

Meanwhile, the Ministry of Agriculture still maintains the forecast of grain harvest this year at the level of 103-105 million tons. True, the head of the department, Alexander Tkachev, does not exclude that, under favorable weather conditions, the harvest may exceed 105 million tons.

The Ministry of Agriculture raised its forecast for the gross harvest of grain crops this year to 127 million tons, admitting that the harvest could break a Soviet-era record. According to the head of the ministry, Alexander Tkachev, until recently, the ministry was careful in its assessments due to unfavorable weather conditions in a number of regions:

“But today 85% of the sown area has already been harvested, almost 122 million tons in bunker weight have been threshed. And we can say with confidence that a record harvest will be harvested, perhaps in the entire history of Russia - and, of course, the Soviet Union ”,

On September 23, President Vladimir Putin said that “it looks like there will be another record harvest”. Tkachev, in turn, recalled that at the moment the record in Russia was recorded in 1978, when 127 million tons were collected (excluding Crimea).

"This year we will break this record, I have no doubt,"

- the minister expressed confidence.

For export, according to Tkachev, this season will be sent 40-45 million tons. To date, export exceeded last year's indicators by a third: more than 10 million tons of grain were shipped, including almost 8 million tons of wheat.

“Given a favorable situation on the world market, we plan to export almost 45 million tons, including 30 million tons of wheat. We hope that this year Russia will once again become the world leader in wheat exports ”,

- stressed Tkachev.

Grain market experts predicted that the grain harvest this year could exceed the level of last year (120.7 million tons) in mid-July, when the Ministry of Agriculture estimates were at the level of 100-105 million tons. During August, during the harvesting campaign, grow sharply and currently exceed 130 million tons. For example, over the past week the analytical company ProZerno increased its forecast by another 2 million tons to 134.1 million tons, including 81.9 million tons of wheat (in 2016 - 73.3 million tons), 20.3 million tons of barley and 16 million tons of corn, and the analytical center "Rusagrotrans" - by 1 million tons to 133.3 million tons, including 82.3 million tons of wheat. The forecast of the analytical center "SovEkon" is 133 million tons, the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) - 131-134 million tons.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture, as of September 28, 123.4 million tons of grain and leguminous crops were threshed in bunker weight, which, taking into account 5% refaction, means about 117 million tons in net weight. Harvesting is completed on 86% of the area, the average yield is 30.4 c / ha against 26.1 c / ha on the same date in 2016. Including wheat, which has already been threshed in the country from 91% of the area, the yield exceeds last year's figure by 17%, barley harvested by 93% - by 20%. So far, corn has been harvested from just over a quarter of the area; its yield is now 8% lower than last year and is equal to 48 centners / ha.

Freight compensation

To stimulate the export of grain, the Ministry of Agriculture proposes to subsidize rail transportation of grain for export from remote regions this year. According to Tkachev, a corresponding draft resolution has been prepared and money for this purpose has already been found:

"It (the draft resolution) is being approved by the interested authorities",

After the government meeting, the minister confirmed to reporters that subsidies for transportation are planned to start in October. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, 3 billion rubles are needed to compensate for export shipments, which, as previously reported, will allow exporting about 3 million tons of grain from Siberia, the Urals, the Volga region, and the center of Russia.

“Given the lack of demand for grain in these regions, the price has always been underestimated by a ruble or two, and this made grain production not very efficient, not very profitable in these territories, and this is no less than 70% of the volume of grain that is produced in remote from the center and southern ports territories ",

- noted the official ( rNS quote).

Including thanks to grain, the export of agricultural products by the end of 2017 may grow to $ 20 billion.

“Last year it amounted to $ 17 billion. That is, this is a significant growth, and this speaks of our export potential not only for grain, but also for meat. vegetable oil, sugar ",

- summed up Tkachev.

The new mechanism for stabilizing prices proposed by the Ministry of Agriculture looks more reasonable than intervention purchases of grain, Andrei Sizov, director of the SovEkon analytical center, said earlier. At the same time, according to him, at present, Russian ports are already fully loaded:

“Export is now going at the highest possible pace. And even if we carry for free, there will be no more ports. Therefore, in the short term - in the coming weeks, or even months - such a mechanism will not be able to remove grain from the market, ”

Vladimir Petrichenko, general director of the analytical company ProZerno, agrees that the infrastructure is operating at full capacity and therefore it will be extremely difficult to increase exports. However, according to him, the zeroing of duties will likely be able to lift falling grain prices:

“How much is difficult to say yet. However, this will not relieve the tension on the grain supply: they will not export more, even if it is cheaper, ”

Earlier, the board of Russian Railways, for its part, decided to establish a 10.3% discount to tariffs for export transportation of grain from a number of regions to Russian ports. The reduction factor will apply to transportation from the Voronezh, Oryol, Tambov, Orenburg, Saratov, Novosibirsk, Omsk regions from October 1, 2017 to June 30, 2018. It will apply to the transportation of wheat, rye, oats, barley, corn, rice, buckwheat, beans, peas, beans and other grain cargo. In addition, on September 15, the government approved the rules for subsidizing the costs of transporting agricultural products from the central regions of Russia to Siberia and the Far East. According to Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich, compensation for part of the logistics export costs will first work as a pilot project: in 2017, the mechanism will be tested at individual companies, "And next year there is an opportunity to deploy it in full."

Wheat quality has improved this season

According to the Federal Center for Grain Safety and Quality Assessment, 39.9 million tons of grain and leguminous crops have been threshed in bunker weight, which is 41.5% of the gross harvest in 47 regions. By September 21, the share of milling wheat was 68.2% (23.2 million tons), including wheat of the 3rd class accounted for 21.8%, of the 2nd class - 0.1%.

"In general, the quality is better by classes than last year",

- stated Yulia Koroleva, director of the FSBI Grain Quality Assessment Center, at the 6th Russian Crop Production business conference - 2017/18.

Taking into account the fact that harvesting continues in Siberia and the Volga region, by the end of the harvesting campaign the percentage of 3rd class wheat will remain higher than last year and may amount to 25% of the total harvest.

“Last year we had no more than 22% of 3rd grade,”

- she reminded.

So, in the Krasnodar Territory, the 3rd grade accounts for 14.9% of the crop, which is almost twice as high as last year's figure (7.9%), in the Crimea - 9.1% against 5.4% in 2016.

The analytical center "SovEkon" predicts the final share of 3rd class wheat this season is slightly lower - at the level of 23-23.5%. Nevertheless, taking into account the expected record harvest, the "increase" in the volume of 3rd class wheat compared to last year will be significant and may amount to 3 million tons.

"With a projected wheat yield of 83 million tons, the volume of grade 3 wheat may be 19−19.5 million tons against the estimated 16.3 million tons,"

- says the message of "SovEcon".

Also, an improvement in indicators compared to last year can be expected for 2nd class wheat.

“Now a small amount of the second class is revealed - about 0.1% of the total gross collection. But we understand that now Siberia and the Volga Federal District will give a noticeable increase in quality ",

- said the Queen.

According to the Center for Grain Quality Assessment, by mid-September the 2nd grade was detected in the Tula region (1.2%), Tambov region (0.7%), Stavropol Territory (0.2%), Ulyanovsk region (0.14% ) and Krasnodar Territory (0.08%).

“There is no second class in Siberia yet, but I think there will be. We expect "

- the Queen expressed her hopes.

In general, in the Volga region, 3rd grade wheat accounted for 24%, 4th - 32%, 5th - 44%; in Siberia - 59%, 29% and 12%, respectively. In the Southern Federal District, the share of food wheat was 72%, the North Caucasus - 89%, the Central - 57%, the Northwestern - 94%, the Urals - 46%, the Far East - 2%.

“As for the grain damaged by the turtle bug, we have better quality grain than before. Now such cases have been identified mainly only in the Center and in the South, and this figure is still much lower than last year. The only thing I would like to say: maybe these indicators will change. Although this is not expected in Siberia, and the Volga region will also be clean enough ",

- counts the Queen.

As for the quality of wheat exported, at the beginning of the 2017/18 season, the export structure somewhat changed.

"Less is shipped for export of 3rd class wheat - less than 6%",

- pointed out the Queen.

In the same period of the last agricultural year, this figure was twice as high - 14.2%. At the same time, in July-August, the share of 4th class wheat exports increased from 83.1% to 84.5%. Among the exported wheat, the 5th grade in July-August accounted for 9.7% (in 2016 - 2.7%).

“If Egypt traditionally buys the 4th grade, then Turkey has reduced the quality of the purchased grain: there was a change in favor of increasing the 5th grade to 37%, while there was a little less than the 3rd grade - 17.5. The average share of protein in exported wheat in the first two months of the 2017/18 season was 12.3%. ”

- explained the Queen.

As the head of the Ministry of Economic Development Maxim Oreshkin reported to the President, “Just the perfect weather conditions for harvesting”:

"And the yield is at a level higher than last year, and the amount of losses has also seriously decreased."

The Ministry of Agriculture gives a disappointing forecast for the harvest-2018

At present time is running the laying of the future harvest, and today the forecast for next year disappointing, said Petr Chekmarev, director of the crop production department of the Ministry of Agriculture, at the 6th industry business conference Russian Crop Production - 2017/18:

“Sowing has been delayed with winter crops in autumn - in the Volga region, in the Central Federal District, although now they have managed to catch up at the expense of the south. There is a delay in harvesting - plowing, tillage is delayed, which is also not a plus ",

In addition, according to the head of the crop department, the weather this year is not conducive to a high harvest in 2018.

“Due to the rains this year, nutrients were washed out, the temperature dropped, and microbiological processes in the soil were weaker. Therefore, the fertile part for the next year will not be quite pleasant for the next harvest, ”

- he noted.

At the same time, he recalled that after seasons with a high gross harvest, there are often crop failures.

“And next year does not bode well for a good harvest so far, so this year we need to have supplies for next year,”

- concluded Chekmarev.

According to the operational data of the Ministry of Agriculture, by September 21, sowing of winter crops was carried out on an area of \u200b\u200b10.0 million hectares, or 57.5% of the forecasted area (in 2016 - 10.1 million hectares). Harvesting work on grain and leguminous crops was completed on 80.9% of the sown area, 117.7 million tons of grain in bunker weight were threshed with a yield of 30.9 c / ha (in 2016 - 26.5 c / ha).

As noted by Chekmarev, the harvesting campaign is currently underway in difficult weather conditions:

“It rains, especially in Siberia, where harvesting is poor. The situation in the Northwestern Federal District is also not developing very well. Well, in the near future they promise snow in these regions, this also complicates the situation in harvesting ",

In addition, in his opinion, one should not expect a high harvest this year for corn, which is currently harvested at 19% of the area:

“The corn let us down this year, because there was not enough heat for the corn to form a good yield, despite the fact that there were very good species”,

In 2016, according to Rosstat, the corn harvest reached a record 15.3 million tons.

69% of arable land is used in Russia

In Russia, on average, 69% of arable land resources are exploited, while in the world the average use of arable land is 80%, said Daria Snitko, head of the Gazprombank Center for Economic Forecasting, at the 6th Russian Crop Production Business Conference - 2017/18:

“In key regions where arable land in Russia is concentrated, the picture is very uneven. A number of regions, in principle, have already reached a fairly high level use of arable land. For instance, Altai region, Rostov region and, of course, Krasnodar Territory. There are even such precedents that show that the area of \u200b\u200bsown arable land is greater than the number of arable land resources. "

So, in the Krasnodar Territory 98% of arable resources are sown, in Tatarstan - 91%, in Bashkiria - 88%, in the Altai Territory - 83%.

According to Snitko, in Russia, the area of \u200b\u200barable land in most regions decreased until 2007, when the minimum was passed:

"After that, the area gradually began to grow."

Despite this, only three regions by 2016 managed to increase the sown area to the level of 1995 - the Amur and Kursk regions, as well as Adygea.

“At the same time, six regions were discovered where arable land areas have both been falling since 1990 and are still falling. These are the Arkhangelsk, Yaroslavl, Tver regions, Udmurtia, Buryatia and the Trans-Baikal Territory ",

- reported Snitko.

The leaders in the volume of unused arable land are the Volgograd region, where almost 2.8 million hectares of arable resources are not sown, the Saratov region (2 million hectares) and the Orenburg region (1.8 million hectares). In general, the Southern Volga region today has, according to Snitko, the greatest potential for investment in the crop sector: the return potential of arable land is estimated at more than 7.5 million hectares. At the same time, the logistics capabilities of the Volga River can be used to export products, and the export potential is also integrated with the agricultural sector Kazakhstan, the expert noted. Also, the expert believes, in the near future, investors will be interested in the north-western part of Russia - first of all, for the development of the dairy sector and organic farming.

“In my opinion, the Orenburg and Saratov regions, Altai Territory, Tula and Moscow regions, Yaroslavl region and, perhaps, some regions The Far East... First, these regions have recently burst into the ranks of the best regions in terms of investment climate, and especially here the Moscow and Yaroslavl regions should be noted. In addition, these regions have a fairly good financial position, "

- noted Snitko.

The price of land for agricultural production in the country, according to the Gazprombank Center for Economic Forecasting, ranges from $ 1.5-2 thousand / ha in the best regions to $ 200-500 / ha in more arid areas.

The total area of \u200b\u200bunused agricultural land in the country is estimated at 40 million hectares. In July 2016, came into force in Russia the federal law, improved the procedure for land acquisition. In particular, the period after which the land plot can be withdrawn from the owner in case of non-use for agricultural production has been reduced from five to three years. The seizure procedure is initiated by the Rosselkhoznadzor, which transfers the materials to the regional executive power, and those within a month must go to court with a demand to seize a land plot and sell it at a public auction. As previously reported by the head of the Ministry of Agriculture Alexander Tkachev, at the end of 2016, decisions were made to withdraw 10 thousand hectares of unused land - four times more than in 2015. The region with the largest number of withdrawn land was the Moscow region - here the owners lost 2.58 thousand hectares of unused land.

The Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) updated the forecast for the grain harvest this year, increasing it by 2.5 million tons to 131-134 million tons. Previous estimates, announced last week, were at the level of 128.5-131.5 million t.

The forecast has been raised against the background of the absence of negative weather "surprises" in the eastern regions of the country, analysts say. As the leading IKAR expert Evgeny Zaitsev explained to Agroinvestor, high estimates of production are based on the results of the main producing regions, where record yields were recorded. So, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, in the Rostov region the yield of grain and leguminous crops this year increased by 10% to 39.8 c / ha, in the Krasnodar Territory - by 4% to 62.9 c / ha, in the Stavropol Territory - by 2 % up to 43.3 c / ha. In the Ural Federal District, the yield is 19% higher than last year's (21.8 c / ha), in the Siberian - approximately at the level of 2016 (17.9 c / ha).

The analytical center "Rusagrotrans" also clarified the forecast of grain harvest this year. According to analysts, it will amount to 132.3 million tons against the previous estimate of 127-129 million tons.The indicator of wheat harvest has been increased from 78-80 million tons to 81.1 million tons, barley - from 18.5-19 million tons to 19 , 3 million tons, the forecast of corn production is kept at the level of 16.5 million tons. According to estimates of Rusagrotrans, the grain harvest in the South and North Caucasus will grow by 3.4 million tons compared to last year to 49.3 million tons, The Volga region - by 2.9 million tons to 27.4 million tons, in the Center - by 4.3 million tons to 32.1 million tons, in Siberia - by 0.4 million tons to 15.5 million tons. grain export remains at the level of 43 million tons, said Igor Pavensky, head of the analytical center Rusagrotrans, to Agroinvestor. "Taking into account peas and flour, export of up to 44.3 million tons is quite possible," he added.

Earlier, the analytical company ProZerno raised its forecast for the grain harvest to 130.7 million tons of grain (including 80.1 million tons of wheat, 19 million tons of barley and 16.3 million tons of corn). “The maximum harvest in history was recorded in 1978, when 127.4 million tons were harvested. That is, even if we take into account the Crimea, 130 million tons will still exceed that record volume,” Vladimir Petrichenko, general director of ProZerno, told Agroinvestor. The assessment of the analytical center "SovEkon" is 127.6 million tons, including wheat - 78.9 million tons, barley - 19.4 million tons, corn - 16.4 million tons, grain exports are projected at 44 million tons.

The Ministry of Agriculture maintains its forecast at the level of 110 million tons of grain. The head of the plant growing department, Petr Chekmarev, explained such expectations by the fact that in a number of regions of Central Russia, the Volga region and the Urals, there is a sharp cold snap, forecasters predict rainy weather, which can lead to a decrease in crop yields and difficulties in harvesting. However, experts consider the ministry's assessment too conservative. “Now the weather, rather, can affect the timing of harvesting, its complexity (the grain will crumble, they will not have time to harvest everything, etc.), as well as the quality of the grain,” Zaitsev believes.

By August 31, Russia had harvested 94.9 million tonnes of grain in the originally capitalized weight, grain and leguminous crops were harvested from 57.5% of the sown area. Wheat harvested 67.1 million tons, barley - 17.2 million tons, corn for grain - 232.8 thousand tons. According to the documents submitted to the Ministry by the regions, 673 agricultural producers suffered from emergencies this year, the declared area of \u200b\u200bdeath of agricultural crops was 188.8 thousand hectares, damage at direct costs is estimated at 2 billion rubles.

The progress of the harvest and the high grain yield this year forced grain market experts to revise their previous forecasts of gross harvest. New estimates of the grain harvest are higher than last year's record of 120.7 million tons. But a high harvest threatens farmers with a drop in prices.

Analytical Center Experts Rusagrotrans CJSC raised the forecast of gross harvest immediately to 127-129 million tons from the previous estimate of 118.3 million tons.

As reported in the center, the forecast for wheat harvest rose to 78-80 million tons from 74 million tons, barley - to 18.5-19 million tons from 18 million tons, corn - to 16-16.5 million tons from 15.5 million tons.

"It is clear that the forecast for grain harvest will be increased, and there are all the prerequisites for both wheat and corn.", - said the general director of the center "ProZerno" Vladimir Petrichenko.

Now his forecast for the gross harvest is 122 million tons, including 74 million tons of wheat. The expert promised new estimates this week.

As V. Petrichenko explained, the reason for raising the forecast is, first of all, the high yield of grain and leguminous crops. "The harvest this year will be a record, besides, the sown area has grown, the supply of grain will be greater.", - he said.

According to V. Petrichenko, the yield records are based, in particular, on "increasing the technological background of grain production: every year more funds are invested in the industry, which allows the use of high-quality seeds, plant protection products, and effective equipment."

According to the Ministry of Agriculture on August 14, the grain yield in the Russian Federation amounted to 40.3 c / ha against 33.1 c / ha as of the same date last year. In particular, in the central regions, the yield reached 45.2 c / ha against 37.4 c / ha a year earlier.

At the same time, V. Petrichenko noted that the high harvest was a catalyst for the fall in grain prices. Last week, a negative signal came from abroad. "The August forecast of the USDA (US Department of Agriculture - Ed.) Of world balances of grain and oilseeds produced an anti-bomb effect for the conjuncture of the world market, -he said ... - The main surprise in the wheat balance was the very steep revaluation of gross harvests in the Black Sea region, they turned out to be much higher than expected "... Thus, the forecast for wheat harvest in the Russian Federation has been raised immediately by 5.5 million tons, to 77.5 million tons, in Ukraine - by 2.5 million tons, to 26.5 million tons.

Meanwhile, the forecast for wheat harvest in Australia, a major global grain producer and exporter, has not changed. Yield estimates for countries in the Western and Southern Hemispheres have even been lowered.

According to ProZerno, last week the largest drop in prices was noted on the 5th grade wheat market. In the center, prices for this grain fell by 550 rubles, to 6,717 rubles per ton, in the Chernozem and Volga regions - by 285-310 rubles, to 6,810 and 6,775 rubles, respectively, in the south - by 185 rubles, to 8,050 rubles, in the Urals - by 140 rubles, up to 7,013 rubles. In Siberia, where the mass harvesting will begin later - by 65 rubles, up to 7,133 rubles per ton.

The center became the leader in terms of the rate of decline in prices for wheat of 3 and 4 classes. Here it fell immediately by 285 rubles (up to 9,300 rubles) and by 315 rubles (up to 8,017 rubles), respectively. The fall in prices accelerated in other regions, with the exception of Siberia.

Barley and corn fell the most in the Volga region - by 240 and 350 rubles, to 6,763 and 7,700 rubles per ton, respectively. "Prices will continue to go down", - the vice president predicts Russian Grain Union Alexander Korbut.

"There is a lot of new grain and carryover stocks, - he said. - Export in August is good. True, it is difficult to talk about world prices - speculative factors may appear on the stock exchange, but the nearest perspective is still down. The growth rate of world grain production is higher than the growth rate of its consumption ".

The Grain Union raised its forecast for grain harvest this year to 124 million tons, including wheat to 77.5-80 million tons. "But everything will depend on how the harvesting process in Siberia goes. It happens that it snows there in the last week of August. The further we go with the growing season, the greater the risks.", - said A. Korbut.

Meanwhile, the Ministry of Agriculture still maintains the forecast of grain harvest this year at the level of 103-105 million tons. True, the head of the department, Alexander Tkachev, does not exclude that, under favorable weather conditions, the harvest may exceed 105 million tons.